- *FOMC MINUTES: MANY SAID MORE PROGRESS NEEDED BEFORE SLOWING QE
- *FED’S BROAD PRINCIPLES ON EXIT `STILL VALID,’ FOMC MINUTES SHOW
- *SOME ON FOMC WILLING TO SLOW ASSET PURCHASES AS EARLY AS JUNE
Two things seem clear: 1) the Fed is explicitly forcing the market to hope for bad data to maintain gains as the gap between market and reality is now too large for a soft-landing; and 2) the Fed has explicitly admitted that it is the ‘flow’ not the ‘stock’ that matters – as we have been vociferous about for years.
The exit seems closer than many expected…
Pre: ES 1666.5, 10Y 2.01%, Gold $1363.50, DXY 84.28
The key section from the Minutes:
Participants also touched on the conditions under which it might be appropriate to change the pace of asset purchases. Most observed that the outlook for the labor market had shown progress since the program was started in September, but many of these participants indicated that continued progress, more confidence in the outlook, or diminished downside risks would be required before slowing the pace of purchases would become appropriate. A number of participants expressed willingness to adjust the flow of purchases downward as early as the June meeting if the economic information received by that time showed evidence of sufficiently strong and sustained growth; however, views differed about what evidence would be necessary and the likelihood of that outcome. One participant preferred to begin decreasing the rate of purchases immediately, while another participant preferred to add more monetary accommodation at the current meeting and mentioned that the Committee had several other tools it could potentially use to do so. Most participants emphasized that it was important for the Committee to be prepared to adjust the pace of its purchases up or down as needed to align the degree of policy accommodation with changes in the outlook for the labor market and inflation as well as the extent of progress toward the Committee’s economic objectives. Regarding the composition of purchases, one articipant expressed the view that, in light of the substantial improvement in the housing market and to avoid further credit allocation across sectors of the conomy, the Committee should start to shift any asset purchases away from MBS and toward Treasury securities.