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Wed, 28th September 2016

Anirudh Sethi Report

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Archives of “ripple effects” Tag

Positives and Negatives of this Week

Positives:

1)Greek debt deal finally done, yeah!, CAC use likely guarantees CDS payment, it better, waiting on ISDA
2)Feb Payrolls at 227k, 17k better than expected and two prior months revised up by 61k. Participation rate ticks up
3)Gasoline prices fall a hair after 39 straight days of gains
4)ISM services index rises to 1 year high at 57.3
5)Chinese Feb CPI up 3.2% vs est of 3.4% and the slowest pace since June ’10
6)China cuts GDP growth forecast to more sustainable, non inflationary, less bubblicious level of 7.5% that leans more on consumption
7)India cuts bank reserve requirements to ease bank liquidity squeeze
8)Brazil cuts rates by 75 bps

Negatives:

1)Average hourly earnings in payroll report rise just .1% m/o/m and 1.9% y/o/y, below expectations and still below the rate of inflation, 2)Initial Jobless Claims at 362k, 10k more than expected after 3 weeks below 360k
3)Jan Trade Deficit $3.6b higher than expected, will trim Q1 GDP estimates by up to .3 of a % pt
4)Prices paid in ISM services index rises to highest since Mar ’11
5)Fed discussing another way to price fix long term interest rates?
6)China bank loans, retail sales, IP and PMI services all weaker than expected
7)China cuts 2012 GDP growth rate target to 7.5% after 7 years of 8.0%, less growth, ripple effects everywhere
8)Canada and Australia report unexpected drop in jobs in Feb
9)Brazil’s economy grows just 2.7% in 2011
10)LTRO sell on the news, European bank stock index down 3.5% on the week, Spanish CDS trades at 7 week high, Portugal CDS trades at 5 week high.