Today’s UK opening call provides an update on:

• UK in focus ahead of BoE minutes and retail sales;
• Two Fed members ease fears that asset purchases will be phased out this summer;
• All eyes on Bernanke later for his take on the Fed’s purchases;
• BoJ leaves monetary policy unchanged but raises economic outlook.

Attention is going to be back on the UK on Wednesday, with minutes from the Bank of England meeting earlier this month and retail sales data for April both due to be released. >> Read More

Goldman Sachs saw no major surprises in the May FOMC statement, which, as we noted in the redline, was very little changed from the March statement. The most notable change, however, introduced additional flexibility around purchases, noting that “the Committee is prepared to increase or reduce the pace of its purchases to maintain appropriate policy accommodation as the outlook for the labor market or inflation changes.” The slightly more aggressive nod towards fiscal policy “restraining” growth as opposed to “becoming restrictive” is perhaps yet another plea for some help from Washington – for,  “the ability of a central bank, exclusively, without the rest of Washington doing any bit of the task, to turn an economy from a modest recovery to a robust one is an experiment that is untested – and will not prove to be successful.”

Via Goldman Sachs,

MAIN POINTS:

1. The May FOMC statement was very little changed from the March statement. Most notably, the statement included one wholly new sentence: “The Committee is prepared to increase or reduce the pace of its purchases to maintain appropriate policy accommodation as the outlook for the labor market or inflation changes.” We see this as introducing flexibility for the Committee, consistent with past statements from the Chairman and other Fed officials, rather than necessarily suggesting a near-term policy bias in one direction or the other. However, it may be notable that this sentence specifically refers to the pace of purchases, rather than the expected period of time over which purchases will continue, or the expected holding period of purchases.

2. There were also modest changes to the economic summary paragraph. According to the May statement, labor market conditions have shown signs of improvement only “on balance,” probably a reference to the weaker March payrolls report since the last meeting. Fiscal policy “is restraining growth” rather than “has become somewhat more restrictive,” a more direct characterization of the drag. There was no change to the inflation language, despite inflation readings softening over the intermeeting period. However, the new sentence about varying the pace of purchases implicitly recognizes the risk of inflation falling too low, raising the possibility that purchases could be increased if the current trend continues.

Signs of extreme physical tightness in the gold and silver markets continue to intensify, with reports of banks and firms refusing their customers physical delivery of their own bullion are increasing nearly hourly. 
The latest report comes from the CME’s former CEO Leo Mahlamed, who reportedly was refused delivery of 2 gold contracts Tuesday! 
Mahlamed attempted to stand for delivery of 2 April gold contracts (a measly 200 oz), and according to reports from the floor, the CME reportedly refused to physically deliver 200 oz of gold to its former CEO, and would only provide Mahlamed a warehouse receipt! 
The music appears to be stopping, and the paper game is up!

Click here for more on the former CME CEO being refused physical delivery of gold:

A second attempt to elect Franco Marini as Italy’s new President fell well short of the required two-thirds majority.

A third vote will be held on Friday and a fourth vote would only require a simple majority. Centre-Left leader Bersani says his party will make a new proposal and must accept that a new phase has opened in the Presidential election.

He doesn’t say that a different leader must be put forward but it looks like Plan A is flopping. At the moment, the Presidential log-jam isn’t affecting the euro but signs of an extended impasse would weigh.

Banking conglomerate Citigroup just released its Q1 financial results.

 It earned $1.23 per share on an adjusted basis.  This is higher than the $1.17 expected by analysts.

Revenue came in at $20.8 billion, which was a tad higher than the $20.1 billion expected. >> Read More

The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI’s) data for bank credit does not show any signs of a pick-up. As the chart shows, the year-on-year growth in non-food credit is now lower than what it was back in early October 2012. Since any recovery in the economy will be accompanied by a rise in non-food credit, it does not appear that the current quarter will show any noteworthy recovery from the depths the economy plumbed in the December 2012 quarter.

• Cyprus’ second largest lender, Cyprus Popular Bank (Laiki), will see deposits under 100,000 euros (which are guaranteed) being put into a good bank
• Non-performing loans and uninsured deposits will be placed in a bad bank, which will be liquidated over time. This should raise 4.2 billion euros
• The good bank will be merged with the country’s largest lender, the Bank of Cyprus
• Uninsured deposits at BoC will face a haircut but none of the officials in Brussels were able to say how large it would be.
• Cypriot finance minister Sarris said that uninsured depositors, including pension funds, would receive equity in return for their savings as part of a recapitalization process; & that the Bank of Cyprus would take over the 9 billion euros of Emergency Liquidity Assistance that the ECB has provided to Laiki.
• Eurogroup president Jeroen Dijsellbloem said it was likely that the ECB would continue providing liquidity to Bank of Cyprus from Monday.
• Deposits at other banks will not be taxed and none of the 10 billion euros Cyprus is to receive from the troika will be used to recapitalize its lenders.
• It is not clear when Cypriot banks will open again.
• The first bailout instalment is due in May.
• It is not clear how much this set of measures will raise but Dijsellbloem said it the original figure of 5.8 billion euros should be disregarded.

Volker Kauder, parliamentary leader of Angela Merkel’s CDU party, has warned that Cyprus is “playing with fire”, and needs to find a workable proposal to find its share of the bailout urgently.

Kauder also told the ARD TV station that Germany would not support the nationalisation of Cyprus’s pension funds (one possible way to find the shortfall in the bailout plan).

I don’t think this can happen, because this would be huge for pensioners, for the small people. So I don’t think this is a proposal that help…

If a proposal comes, I am optimistic. But we aren’t there yet…..I still believe we will get a settlement, but Cyprus is playing with fire.

Have a Plan. Many traders do not realize that trading is more complex than it seems. It should not be driven by merely a hunch. A good trader is always ready with a realistic plan. This plan should include sophisticated research and examination of the currencies as well as stop and limit levels of the trade. This prepared plan should have an analysis of the expected upside along with the downside.

Cut your losses at an early stage and be loyal to your profit earners.Some traders want to believe that their losses might still do well after a good waiting time. But the market moves against these non-profitable positions and makes them lose hundred of points, not recovering enough to sustain even if they do rise again. Do not be caught in the belief that every trade should be profitable.

Play Smart. Dont let your emotions rule in trading. Always be objective with your decisions. While in the market, do not hope that it will move in a favorable direction just for you. Be sensitive enough to see the factors that may have influences the changes that transpired against the original analysis you had made. If the considerable signs are there, reconsider your losing position.

-Above is Daily Chart of NIFTY FUTURE-

On Friday after kissing High of 5967 it crashed vertically !!

-On Friday our First call was 5972 is Major Hurdle.It kissed 5967 & Crashed

(Intraday below 5927 our Targets were :5887-5877 level ,It made low of  5880 & closed at 5897 level )

Recommended to Buy 5900 Put @ 54…..Target 85 ,Yes still Holding………will see What happens Today ?

-Below 5877 level ………………………..if trades with volumes then ??

Slide upto 5847——–5837 level & there after will Retest 5805—5795 level in panic !

-Trendline Support at 5835-5840 level (Watch this level )

-5812 is Major Support for Nifty Future-

Break below this level or closes below this level will take to 5753-5733 in PANIC !!

-More Details ,Reversal points ,Hurdle and Intraday levels to our Subscribers.

Updated at 7:03/18th March/Baroda/India