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Fri, 24th March 2017

Anirudh Sethi Report

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Archives of “Stephen Breyer” Tag

Emerging Markets -An Update

Hong Kong Chief Executive Leung Chun-ying said he won’t seek a second term.
Korea’s parliament voted 234-56 to impeach President Park.
Czech National Bank raised the possibility of negative rates to help manage the currency.
A Brazilian Supreme Court justice removed Senate chief Renan Calheiros from his post, but was later overturned by the full court.
Brazil central bank signaled a possibly quicker easing cycle.

In the EM equity space as measured by MSCI, UAE (+6.2%), Poland (+6.0%), and Mexico (+5.9%) have outperformed this week, while Czech Republic (-0.6%), Hong Kong (-0.2%), and China (+0.6%) have underperformed.  To put this in better context, MSCI EM rose 2.8% this week while MSCI DM rose 2.8%.
In the EM local currency bond space, Brazil (10-year yield -60 bp), the Philippines (-59 bp), and Indonesia (-40 bp) have outperformed this week, while India (10-year yield +20 bp), China (+5 bp), and Czech Republic (-1 bp) have underperformed.  To put this in better context, the 10-year UST yield rose 3 bp this week to 2.41%. 
In the EM FX space, BRL (+3.1% vs. USD), COP (+2.9% vs. USD), and CLP (+2.8% vs. USD) have outperformed this week, while EGP (-2.3% vs. USD), CNH (-0.8% vs. USD), and SGD (-0.7% vs. USD) have underperformed.
Hong Kong Chief Executive Leung Chun-ying said he won’t seek a second term.  He cited family reasons.  The next chief executive will be selected in March by a committee of 1,200.  China has veto power over the final selection, and so it’s clear that another establishment leader will be chosen. 

Volkswagen gets final approval for $15bn clean-diesel settlement

The court overseeing US civil claims against Volkswagen gave final approval on Tuesday to one of the biggest consumer settlements in American history, bringing to a close a central chapter in the emissions scandal.

One week after a three-hour hearing in which more than 20 opponents to the settlement voiced their complaints, US District Court Judge Charles Breyer gave a thumbs up to the $15bn settlement, saying it met the court’s requirement of being fair and adequate

“Given the risks of prolonged litigation, the immediate settlement if this matter is far preferable,” he said in the ruling. “As the Court stated at the outset, the priority was to get the polluting cars off the road as soon as possible.”

The settlement, announced in June, was the result of negotiations between VW, several US regulators, and lawyers representing almost half-million car owners.