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Tue, 25th April 2017

Anirudh Sethi Report

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Archives of “united kingdom” Tag

French election results soothe investor fears

Investors breathed a sigh of relief following the first-place showing of centrist and pro-European Union candidate Emmanuel Macron in the first round of France’s presidential elections Sunday, sending the Euro to a five-month high relative to the dollar. Populist Marine Le Pen ranked second in the voting.

Why it matters: The results make it more likely that Macron will be France’s next president, keeping France in the EU. That should have a positive impact on both French stocks and the U.S. economy.

 Paris rising: High Frequency Economics’ Carl Weinberg predicts that French stocks will rally in trading Monday, and that interest rates on French government debt will fall. France isn’t out of the woods, however. Weinberg writes that Macron will have a tough time corralling a divided Parliament to implement pro-growth reforms.

Domestic affairs: A Blackrock Investment Institute note to clients calls Macron a “business friendly” candidate that will not get in the way of Europe’s improving economy. The U.S. economy has seen the benefits of faster growth in Europe—political stability across the Atlantic is good for business here.

Caveat: David Zahn of Franklin Templeton Investments warns that “it’s not a done deal yet,” and that the push and pull of a high profile election will cause “markets to remain volatile in the run-up to the final round of voting on May 7 and potentially even beyond.”

Russia blocks Security Council response to North Korea’s failed missile test

A U.N. Security Council statement condemning North Korea’s latest attempted missile launch was obstructed Wednesday following Russian objections to its tough stance.

The statement would have demanded an immediate end to violations of Security Council resolutions sanctioning the North’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs and underscored the “vital importance” of Pyongyang “immediately showing sincere commitment to denuclearization.”

 Russia objected to the removal of language promoting a settlement “through dialogue,” according to diplomatic sources.

North Korea’s failed test of a ballistic missile Sunday came the day after a major military parade in celebration of the birth anniversary of the country’s founder, Kim Il Sung. The missile exploded shortly after launch.

A previous Security Council statement, released two days after Pyongyang’s April 4 missile test launch, noted the commitment of council members to “a peaceful, diplomatic and political solution to the situation and welcomed efforts by council members, as well as other states, to facilitate a peaceful and comprehensive solution through dialogue.”

The current statement was drafted by the U.S. — which is presiding over the council for the month of April — and takes a stronger position than previous council statements.

Erdogan Declares Victory In Turkey’s Constitutional Referendum Tyler Durden’s picture by Tyler Durden

With over 97% of ballots counted, Turkey’s president Erdogan and soon, quasi dictator, declared victory in the Turkish referendum and called the leaders of three political parties supporting changes to the constitution to congratulate them on the victory, Anadolu news agency reported, and added rather comically that “many world leaders send congratulatory messages to President Erdogan.” One wonders who exactly…

Absent some last minute fireworks, Turkey is now set to shift to a presidential system as the outcome of the referendum puts “Yes” votes at 51.3%, according to unofficial sources.

“Yes” votes were ahead at 51.3% or 24.598.880 votes, while “No” votes fell behind at 48.6% or 23,326,636 votes. “Yes” votes prevailed in four of Turkey’s seven regions, including southeastern Anatolia.

The reforms were approved by 339 deputies on January 21st, and Erdo?an signed the amendments on February 10th. Under the proposed changes, the post of prime minister is abolished and the president, vice president(s) and cabinet officials can be investigated by the parliament. The current system has no mechanism that monitors presidential conduct.

S&P warns EU’s rating could be hit of Brexit goes badly

S&P warns EU’s rating could be hit of Brexit goes badly
  • Standard & Poor’s on the European Union

If Brexit negotiations go badly, the EU’s AA-rating could come under pressure, S&P warns.

They say the current EU rating assumes the UK will meet its financial obligations to the EU. The problem is that those commitments aren’t legally enforceable if May decides to get really tough.

What’s the chance of that? Very close to zero but the EU rating should be under pressure in any case with the political climate in Europe and the hole Britain is about to punch in its budget.

European Indices closes the quarter with gains today

Gains for the quarter as well

The European preliminary closing levels point to gains:
  • Eurostoxx 600 index is up 0.3% .  Third straight quarter of gains
  • France’s CAC was up 0.5%
  • German Dax was up 0.4%
  • Spains Ibex was up 0.4%
Bucking the trend today was the UK FTSE which was down -0.4%. Nevertheless it ended the quarter with gains.  That represents the 4th straight quarter of gains.
Other accolades:
  • Eurostoxx index rose by 5.5% for the 1Q which represents the best quarterly gain in 2 year.
Gains for other indices on the quarter:
  • UK FTSE +2.84%
  • France CAC +5.15%
  • German Dax +7.25%
  • Italy MIB +6.47%
  • Spain’s Ibex +11.66%

Some key point from the PM’s letter to the EU

Theresa May’s letter to Donald Tusk has been released in full. Here it is.

Among the key points…

“We must work hard” to avoid falling back on WTO trade terms, and security is at stake

In security terms a failure to reach agreement would mean our cooperation in the fight against crime and terrorism would be weakened. In this kind of scenario, both the United Kingdom and the European Union would of course cope with the change, but it is not the outcome that either side should seek.

“The UK does not seek membership of the single market.” On having cake and eating it…

We understand and respect your position that the four freedoms of the single market are indivisible and there can be no “cherry picking”. We also understand that there will be consequences for the UK of leaving the EU: we know that we will lose influence over the rules that affect the European economy. We also know that UK companies will, as they trade within the EU, have to align with rules agreed by institutions of which we are no longer a part – just as UK companies do in other overseas markets.

Trump and Saudi Prince discussed new investments worth more than $200B – White House

White House on yesterday’s meeting

Saudi Arabia hailed yesterday’s meeting as a “historical turning point” in relations with the United States. He met with Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman who is the economic power broker in the kingdom.

The White House said they discussed development of a new US-Saudi program with initiatives including infrastructure and energy worth potentially more than $200 billion.

Tony Blair leaves door open to second referendum on EU membership

Former British prime minister Tony Blair has hinted at his support to have a second referendum if a “significant part” of those who voted for Brexit change their mind.

Speaking to launch his campaign to “persuade” people not to leave the EU, Mr Blair said:

If a significant part of that 52 per cent show real change of mind, however you measure it, we should have the opportunity to reconsider the decision.

Whether you do it through another referendum, or another method, that’s a second order question.

The former leader of the Labour party also invoked the “propensity for revolt” seen across the developed to call on pro-EU supporters to convince people who “voted without knowledge of the true terms of Brexit”.

Mr Blair said he wanted to “strengthen the hand of the MPs who are with us and let those against know they have serious opposition to Brexit At Any Cost”, adding:

This is not the time for retreat, indifference or despair; but the time to rise up in defence of what we believe – calmly, patiently, winning the argument by the force of argument; but without fear and with the conviction we act in the true interests of Britain.

Who wants to know the latest European Commission economic forecasts?

what, you all do? Your luck is in boys and girls.

  • Eurozone 2017 GDP 1.6% vs 1.5% prior. 2018 1.8% vs 1.7% prior
  • Eurozone inflation 2017 1.7% vs 1.4% prior. 2018 1.4% unch
  • Eurozone unemployment 2017 9.6% vs 10.0% in 2016. 2018 9.1%
  • Eurozone aggregate budget deficit 2017 1.4% vs 1.7% in 2016. 2018 1.4%
  • Eurozone government debt 2017 90.4% vs 91.5% in 2016. 2018 89.2%

They see every EU member state growing in 2016/17 & 18.

For some reason Reuters has specifically noted that the EC see UK growth this year at 1.5% vs 2.0% last year, and at 1.2% in 2018. Official UK forecasts are 2.0% & 1.6% for those periods. Is the EC trying to say something? 😉

Other highlights;

  • German investment to slow to 2.1% in 2017 vs 2.5% in 2016. 2018 2.5%
  • France budget def 2.9% of GDP 2017 vs 3.3% 2016. To rise above EC target again in 2018
  • Spain budget def 3.5% 2017 vs 4.7% 2016. 2018 2.9%

Here’s the full report if you want to see the rest.

 

ECB sees seeds of next crisis in Trump deregulation plan

The European Central Bank rejected U.S. accusations of currency manipulation on Monday and warned that deregulating the banking industry, now being openly discussed in Washington, could sow the seeds of the next financial crisis.

Arguing that lax regulation had been a key cause of the global financial crisis a decade ago, ECB President Mario Draghi said the idea of easing bank rules was not just worrying but potentially dangerous, threatening the relative stability that has supported the slow but steady recovery.

 Draghi’s words are among the strongest reactions yet from Europe since U.S. President Donald Trump ordered a review of banking rules with the implicit aim of loosening them. That raises the prospect of the United States pulling out of some international cooperation efforts.

“The last thing we need at this point in time is the relaxation of regulation,” Draghi told the European Parliament’s committee on economic affairs in Brussels. “The idea of repeating the conditions that were in place before the crisis is something that is very worrisome.”

The ECB supervises the euro zone’s biggest lenders.

“Big mistake”

Andreas Dombret, a member of the board of Germany’s powerful central bank, the Bundesbank, said that reversing or weakening regulations all at once would be a “big mistake”, because it would increase the chance of another financial crisis.

“That is why I see a possible lowering of regulatory requirements in the U.S., which is under discussion, critically,” said Dombret, who is also a member of the Basel committee drafting new global banking rules.