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Thu, 29th June 2017

Anirudh Sethi Report

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Archives of “Wall Street Crash of 1929” Tag

Overnight US Market :Worst Day of Year 2017.Complete Bloodbath

S&P tumbles -1.81%. Dow down -1.77%. The Nasdaq loses 2.57%. OUCH!

The US stocks are ending the day with the largest declines on the year.
  • The Nasdaq was the hardest hit, falling by -2.57% or -158.63 points to 6011.234. The high reached 6122.87. The low 6009.477, not far from the closing level
  • The S&P fell by -43.64 points or 1.82% to 2357.03. The high reached 2384.87. The low came in at 2356.21.
  • The Dow fell by -372.82 points or -1.78% to 20606.93. The high reached 20846.17. The low 20601.08.
2017 big gainers took it on the chin today:
  • Apple fell 3.36%
  • Amazon fell -2.23%
  • Microsoft fell -2.78%
  • Facebook fell -3.29%
  • Google fell -2.48%
  • Netflix fell -3.90%
  • Tesla fell -3.44%
Banks were also hit on concerns the Fed might not be so inclined to raise rates.
  • Citigroup fell -4.02%
  • JP Morgan Chase fell -3.81%

China’s top securities regulator vows to punish “iron roosters” with no dividend payout

China’s top securities regulator urged listed companies to reward investors with cash dividends, vowing to punish stingy “iron roosters.”

Liu Shiyu, Chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) also warned listed firms against raising money for blind investments, or designing complicated share structures that facilitate insider trading and other malpractices.

 “Paying cash dividends is a basic way to reward investors … and the ultimate source of a stock’s intrinsic value,” Liu said in a recent speech, a transcript of which was posted on CSRC’s website on Saturday.

CSRC will take “tough measures” against those “iron roosters” who haven’t plucked a single feature for many years, even though they have the ability to pay dividends, Liu said.

Liu, installed as head of China’s securities watchdog following the 2015 stock market crash, has made investor protection his priority, having stepped up a crackdown on market manipulation and tightened disclosure rules.

10 Favorite Quotes from Reminiscences of a Stock Operator

Although Jessie’s life ended too early, his words of wisdom live on for discovery. The book is filled with obscure references and colorful characters long forgotten by the general public, but the key themes of the text remain as relevant as ever. Therefore, I’ve pulled out my favorite quotes, below, though I highly recommend reading the entire text.

  1. There is nothing new in Wall Street. There can’t be because speculation is as old as the hills. Whatever happens in the stock market today has happened before and will happen again.
  2. The desire for constant action irrespective of underlying conditions is responsible for many losses in Wall Street even among professionals.
  3. I never lose my temper over the stock market. I never argue the tape. Getting sore at the market doesn’t get you anywhere.
  4. They say you can never go poor taking profits. No, you don’t. But neither do you grow rich taking a four-point profit in a bull market. Where I should have made twenty thousand I made two thousand. That was what my conservatism did for me.
  5. Remember that stocks are never too high for you to begin buying or too low to begin selling.
  6. A man may see straight and clearly and yet become impatient or doubtful when the market takes its time about doing as he figured it must do. That is why so many men in Wall Street…nevertheless lose money. The market does not beat them. They beat themselves, because though they have brains they cannot sit tight.
  7. After spending many years in Wall Street and after making and losing millions of dollars I want to tell you this: It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was the sitting. Got that? My sitting tight!
  8. Losing money is the least of my troubles. A loss never bothers me after I take it…But being wrong—not taking the loss—that is what does the damage to the pocketbook and to the soul.
  9. Prices, like everything else, move along the line of least resistance. They will do whatever comes easiest.
  10. The speculator’s chief enemies are always boring from within. It is inseparable from human nature to hope and to fear. In speculation when the market goes against you hope that every day will be the last day—and you lose more than you should had you not listened to hope—the same ally that is so potent a success-bringer to empire builders and pioneers, big and little. And when the market goes your way you become fearful that the next day will take away your profit, and you get out—too soon. Fear keeps you from making as much money as you ought to. The successful trader has to fight these two deep-seated instincts…Instead of hoping he must fear; instead of fearing he must hope.

Axel Merk On What’s Next For The Dollar, Gold, & Stocks?

Two rate hikes since last year have weakened the dollar. Why is that, and what’s ahead for dollar, currencies & gold? And while we are at it, we’ll chime in on what may be in store for the stock market…

Stocks…

The chart above shows the S&P 500, the price of gold and the U.S. dollar index since the beginning of 2016. The year 2016 started with a rout in the equity markets which was soon forgotten, allowing the multi-year bull market to continue. After last November’s election we have had the onset of what some refer to as the Trump rally. Volatility in the stock market has come down to what may be historic lows. Of late, many trading days appear to start on a down note, although late day rallies (possibly due to retail money flowing into index funds) are quite common.

Where do stocks go from here? Of late, we have heard outspoken money manager Jeff Gundlach suggests that bear markets only happen if the economy turns down; and that his indicators suggest that there’s no recession in sight. We agree that bear markets are more commonly associated with recessions, but with due respect to Mr. Gundlach, the October 1987 crash is a notable exception. The 1987 crash was an environment that suffered mostly from valuations that had gotten too high; an environment where nothing could possibly go wrong: the concept of “portfolio insurance” was en vogue at the time. Without going into detail of how portfolio insurance worked, let it be said that it relied on market liquidity. The market took a serious nosedive when the linkage between the S&P futures markets and their underlying stocks broke down.

Overnight US Market :Dow closed -238 points.(YTD is up 4.58% )

It has been 109 days since the market moved 1% either way.  All indices down over 1% today.

The US stock market hit the skids today on concerns about the Trump agenda for healthcare, taxes, regulation…you name it.
In the major indices:
  • The Nasdaq traded to new all time highs at the start of the day but ended the day down -1.83%. Ouch.
  • The S&P index fell by -1.24%. The high reached 2381.93. The low extended to 2341.90. The all time high for the S&P reached 2400.
  • The Dow fell by -1.14 points to 20667. It peaked above 21000.
All three indices are now down on the month with the :
  • S&P now down -0.83%,
  • The Dow down -0.69% and
  • The Nasdaq down -0.54%.
For the year, the indices are still higher so all is not lost.  Looking at the major indices, the:
  • Nasdaq up 7.63%
  • S&P up 4.70%
  • The Dow up 4.58%

WSJ: America Can’t Escape the Debt Vortex: Total obligations … hit 370% of GDP

The Wall Street Journal on ‘credit bubbles’:

  • Credit bubbles usually pop at some point and the consequences aren’t pretty
  • The stock-market crash of 1929 followed a credit boom, and so did the crash of 2008
  • In both cases, Washington overreacted, producing a 10-year depression in the 1930s and a weak recovery after the 2009 recession
The piece goes on (this is a summary, link to the full piece below), bolding mine:
Lacy Hunt, an economist with Hoisington Investment, estimated at a recent conference held by Grant’s Interest Rate Observer that debt of all kinds in the U.S. now totals more than $69 trillion. That’s more than double the $30 trillion recorded by Fed statisticians as recently as 2000. If the Hunt figure is correct, then total debt is now about 370% of GDP, up from 294% in 2000.
The article concludes:
  • There isn’t much the Fed can do about this except make it worse
  • Nor is there much that Mr. Trump can do except make it worse. But he seems intent on that-threatening trade wars against America’s biggest trading partners. If the president blocks their ability to earn dollars, he diminishes their ability to bail us, and themselves, out of the global debt slough. The past decade of government and Fed profligacy is not his fault, but that still isn’t an argument for recklessness. If this ends in tears, Mr. Trump will get the blame.

Global stocks hit fresh record high

Global equities are in virgin territory after Wall Street closed at another record amid a positive outlook for economic growth.

Political concerns leave the euro carrying the wooden spoon in the forex markets, while the broadly upbeat tone damps demand for sovereign bonds, pushing up yields.

Hot topic
The FTSE All-World equity index is at another record, up 0.2 per cent to 295,24, as investors are buoyed by signs of improvement in the global economy.

With US stocks making up about 50 per cent of the All-World, it is Wall Street that is the main driver of the global rally.

Overnight US Market :Dow closes back above 20,000, Nasdaq hits record

Banks and other financial companies led stocks higher on Wall Street Friday as President Trump prepares to scale back financial industry regulations. Buyers were also encouraged by a pickup in hiring in January. Small-company stocks, which stand to benefit more than others from stronger economic growth, make sharp gains.

The Dow Jones industrial average jumped back above the 20,000 level as the blue-chip index rose 186.55 points, or 0.9%, to close at 20,071.46. The Standard & Poor’s 500 index gained 16.57, or 0.7%, to 2297.43, moving within one point of its record closing high of 2298.37. The Nasdaq composite index added 30.57, or 0.5%, to set a new record closing high of 5666.77.

The Russell 2000 index of smaller-company stocks climbed 1.5% to 1,377.84. Smaller, domestically-focused companies may have more to gain than their larger peers from faster growth in the U.S. The Russell made large gains at the end of 2016 based on those hopes.

The stock market rally kicked off early after the government reported that U.S. employers added 227,000 jobs in January, higher than last year’s average monthly gain of 187,000 and a sign that President Donald Trump has inherited a robust job market. The unemployment rate ticked up to a low 4.8% from 4.7% in December, but for a good reason: More people started looking for work. The percentage of adults working or looking for jobs increased to its highest level since September.

Financial firms rose after President Donald Trump took his first steps aimed at scaling back regulations on the industry. He signed an order that directs the Treasury Secretary to look for potential changes to the Dodd-Frank law, which reshaped financial regulations after the 2008-09 financial crisis and created the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.

The order doesn’t have any immediate impact, but suggests Trump is intent on reducing regulations, which could boost profits for financial companies and banks.

Dow components Visa (V) and Goldman Sachs (GS) jumped 4.6%, JPMorgan Chase (JPM) added 3.1% and American Express (AXP) gained 2%. Smaller banks, which could find it easier to lend money if regulations are cut, also traded higher.

My take on how to read financial news headlines

Headline: Stocks Rose/Fell Today by 1% Because of _______
How to read it: Millions of shares traded hands today because investors all have different goals, strategies, risk profiles, holding periods and ideas.

Headline: [Popular economist/fund manager] Expects Market Volatility to Pick Up Later This Year
How to read it: Saying you expect volatility to pick up at some point in the future is like saying you expect it to rain at some point in the future. And volatility works both ways — to the upside and the downside — so really this is just a way of saying the markets will fluctuate, which of course they will.

Headline: George Soros Gained/Lost $1 Billion
How to read it: Soros has around $25 billion so what he does with his money shouldn’t concern most investors.

Headline: Markets Got Slaughtered Today: A Sign of Worse Things to Come?
How to read it: No one ever really knows why stocks rise or fall on a single day. The market is up just over 50% of all trading days and down just under 50% of all trading days so you can never put too much stock in any one day.

Headline: Investors Are Dealing With More Uncertainty
How to read it: The future is always uncertain. The past just feels more certain because now we know what really happened.

Headline: Are Market Overbought Here? 
How to read it: Ask us again in a few months.

Headline: [Democrats/Republicans/current or past president] Caused X% of Economic or Stock Market Growth
How to read it: Presidents or political parties don’t personally control economies or stock markets made up of millions of participants and trillions of dollars all wrapped up within a complex adaptive system. These things don’t come with levers that you can pull to make them rise or fall.

Headline: The Stock Market Enters a Painful Correction
How to read it: Retirement savers rejoice as stocks fall on the week. Those with decades to save & invest should hope it continues.

Headline: _____ Could Cause Gold Could Rise to $1500/oz.
How to read it: Total guess. No one has a clue.

Headline: Is This the Stock-Picker’s Market We’ve Been Waiting For?
How to read it: It’s both always and never a stock-picker’s markets because it all depends on the quality of the stock-picker, not the market.

Headline: Goldman Sachs Expects Stocks to Rally For the Next 3 Months
How to read it: Big financial firms have so many strategists that there will surely be a research piece put out in the coming days that totally contradicts whatever they just predicted.

Headline: When Will the Fed Raise Rates?
How to read it: Has Fed policy really ever helped you make better investment decisions? Even if you knew exactly what they were going to do in the future you still have no idea how other investors will react. 

Headline: Investors Panic as Stocks Enter a Bear Market
How to read it: Don’t panic — expected returns and dividend yields go up during bear markets. This is a good thing for long-term investors.

Headline: A Perfect Storm Caused Markets to Fall
How to read it: Stuff happens in the markets and we like to attach important-sounding narratives to everything. 100-year storms now seem to come around once a month or so.

Barron’s: Next Stop Dow 30,000… On One Condition

The financial magazine which has made an art out of calling for big, round numbers in the Dow Jones Financial Index (as a reminder over 20% of the Dow’s surge since the election is due entirely to Goldman Sachs), most recently with its “get ready for Dow 20,000” call from just over a month ago, has done it again:

While there are still those – pretty much anyone who still cares about fundamentals – who are scratching their heads at Dow20K, according to Barrons “the Dow hitting 20,000 was no fluke. Today’s stock prices are well supported by solid prospects for corporate earnings and economic growth.” 

In fact, Dow 30,000 is just around the corner… well by 2025. All President Donald Trump has to do, according to Barron’s, is avoid stumbling into a trade war—or a real war.” Some of the profound insight behind this forecast so reminiscent of the infamous “Dow 36,000” prediction which hit just around the time of the last market bubble.

Clearly, part of the propulsion behind stocks has been the Trump administration and its flurry of business-friendly edicts. If Trump can succeed in reducing regulation and lowering corporate taxes, stocks should surge further this year. An additional 5% or even 10% gain in 2017 wouldn’t be surprising. Our projection of 30,000 by 2025 is based on our analysis of historical data provided by Jeremy Schwartz, director of research at WisdomTree. This data, which looks at stock market returns for rolling five-year periods dating back to 1871, suggest stock market gains will fall below the market’s typical annual gain of 6% after inflation in the next five years before accelerating above the average in the years after that.