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Sun, 25th June 2017

Anirudh Sethi Report

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Archives of “west texas intermediate” Tag

US crude oil price to average $53.52 per barrel in 2017

So say the results of latest Reuters poll 2 June

  • vs $57.24 in prev poll in April
  • 2018 $57.24 vs $59.23 prev
  • Brent crude ave price $55.57 in 2017 vs $57.04 prev
  • 2018 $59.63 vs $61.46 prev

34 economists polled

Reduced expectations (weakest of 2017 so far) but still seems very toppish to me.

I bet there’s a few traders who would love to see prices up there again.

Currently $47.14 and $49.33

 

How Hedge Funds Play The OPEC Deal Extension

We’ve had a good two-way crude oil market since the first of the year which has helped hold crude oil in a relatively narrow range as aggressive traders continue to play the long side, in anticipation of a balance between supply and demand.

This year began with an oversupplied crude oil market, but with a bullish tone set by OPEC when they decided to start reducing output in an effort to trim supply and stabilize prices. On paper, the idea seemed bullish. What they didn’t expect, however, was the surge in U.S. production that skewed their forecasts and timetables for global supply and demand to reach a balance.

For nearly six months, traders have been pelted with stories nearly every day telling them about OPEC supply cuts and increased U.S. production. The stories seem to have neutralized the markets to a point where crude oil prices have become range bound.

In order for a market to become range bound, some major market player has to be selling enough crude oil to stop a rally and some major market player has to be buying enough crude oil to stop the decline.

However, inside the trading range we’ve seen several pockets of volatility and these moves can only be blamed on the speculators and namely, the hedge funds.

If you’ve traded speculative markets, I’m sure you’ve noticed that markets come down faster than they go up. Essentially, this is because speculative buyers tend to be very careful about where they buy or enter the market, but when it’s time to sell, they don’t care what they pay to get out.

Overnight US Market :Dow closed -8.50 points.Nasdaq Unchanged

Nasdaq unchanged.  Dow down about -0.04%

The S&P index is ending the day down about -0.20% on the day to 2273.50. The high reached 2379.55. The low 2369.66.
The Nasdaq was unchanged at 5901.50. The high reached 5915.12. The low 5888.
The Dow was down about 8.5 points to 20906. The high reached 20955. The low extended to 20885.
In other markets:
  • 2 year yield fell -2.6 bp to 1.288%
  • 5 year yield fell -3.1 bp to 1.986%
  • 10 year yield fell -3.7 bp to 2.462%
Spot gold is up $5 to $1234.39. The high reached 1235.78. The low 1229.15.
WTI Crude oil is trading at $48.21, down -$0.57
The snapshot of the major currencies shows the NZD is the strongest while the GBP is the weakest (PM May will trigger Article 50 on March 29th). The USD was mixed with the dollar gaining against the GBP. It was down against the AUD and NZD and little changed against the other major currencies.

Overnight US Market :Recover into the close but close near unchanged levels

The US major indices are ending the day with smalll gains.

  • S&P index +1.89 points or 0.08%
  • NASDAQ composite index +1.257 points or +0.02%
  • Dow industrial average +2.46 points or +0.01%
In other markets:
  • Spot gold $1202.13, down $6.20 or -0.51%
  • WTI Crude oil trading at $49.74. That is down $-.54 or -1.07%. The price has bounced off key support at $48.68/72 area where the 200 day MA and 50% retracement was found.
IN the US debt market
  • 2-year note 1.366%, +1.2 basis points
  • 5-year note  2.126%,, +3.3 basis points
  • 10 year note 2.562%,, +3.6  basis points.. The high in the 10 year reached 2.605% just short of the December high of 2.61%
  • 30 year bond 182%, +3.3 basis points

Overnight US Market :Dow Closed + 97 points

Stocks closed out the week in a strong fashion Friday as the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq all jumped to new all-time highs in the market’s push further into record territory.

The Dow Jones industrial average rose 96.97, or 0.5%, to close at a record 20,269.37, according to preliminary calculations. The Standard & Poor’s 500 index gained 8.23 points, or 0.4%, to 2316.10 and the Nasdaq composite index added 18.95, or 0.3%, 5734.13.  Both the S&P and Nasdaq were up for a fourth straight day.

Miners and other raw materials companies led the market rally and rising crude oil prices also gave energy companies a big boost. Investors kept their focus on strong company earnings and corporate deal news.

Investors have focused on companies quarterly results lately as they size up corporate America’s growth prospects. Earnings are on track to mark the second-consecutive quarter of growth after a losing streak of five straight quarters. Beyond earnings, investors are also eying Washington D.C. for signs the Trump administration will deliver on the promised business-friendly policy proposals that helped drive a market rally last fall, including slashing government regulations and taxes.

Benchmark U.S. crude was up 91 cents, or 1.7%, at $53.91 a barrel in New York. The contract rose 66 cents on Thursday. Brent crude, the benchmark for international oil prices, was up $1.05, or 1.9%, at $56.68 a barrel in London.

 

Overnight US Market :Dow closed +118 points ,Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq blow past old records

Stocks were in rally mode Thursday as all three of the major indexes jumped to new all-time closing highs.

The Dow Jones industrial average jumped 118 points, or 0.6%, to 20,172.40.

Up by the same percentage were the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq composite — to their new highs of 2307.87 and 5715.18, respectively.

Investors weighed earnings from a batch of companies, including Twitter, Kellogg and Viacom. Energy stocks led the gainers as the price of crude oil headed higher. Utilities were down the most.

Benchmark U.S. crude gained 66 cents, or 1.3%, to $53.00 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, while Brent crude, the benchmark for international oil prices, added 40 cents to $55.52 a barrel.

In earnings news:

Overnight US Market :Dow closed +32 points

Stock indexes wavered between small gains and losses before ending mixed Thursday as investors sized up the latest company earnings news. Consumer goods and industrial stocks climbed the most, while health care and utilities were among the biggest laggards.

The Dow Jones industrial average climbed further above the 20,000 level it passed Wednesday. gaining 32 points, or 0.2% to 20,100.91.

Wall Street came off solid gains from the day before. The Dow Jones industrial average, after topping the magic 20K milestone and staying there, hit a record closing high along with the Nasdaq composite and the S&P 500.

On Thursday the Nasdaq slipped fractionally, losing just 0.02% to 5655.18. Off a little less than 0.1% was the S&P 500, now at 2296.68.

It’s been a record-making week on Wall Street. The S&P 500 index and Nasdaq composite closed at all-time highs on Tuesday and Wednesday. The Dow, which tracks 30 major industrial companies, added its own milestone Wednesday after it breached the 20,000 mark for the first time.

The market is getting a general boost from strong company earnings and investor optimism that the Trump administration’s policies on taxes, regulation and trade will be good for business.

Oil  prices jumped as benchmark U.S. crude oil was up $1.07, or 2%, at $53.82 per barrel in New York. Brent crude, used to price international oils, was up $1.08, or 1.9%, at $56.50 a barrel in London.

Oil supply cuts may not be extended after June – Saudi Arabia’s oil minister

Saudi Arabia’s oil minister said that the supply cuts agreed by Opec and non-Opec countries at the end of last year may not need to be extended beyond June, as rising demand and strong compliance should have pushed the market towards balance by then.

Khalid al Falih, speaking at an industry event in Abu Dhabi, struck a bullish pose saying the cuts, which began on January 1, would have their “full impact by the first half” of 2017.

“We don’t think it’s necessary given the level of compliance…and given the expectations of demand,” Reuters reported.

He added, however, that the group could still extend the six-month deal “if there was a need”.

Brent crude, the international oil benchmark, was up 38 cents at $55.83 a barrel by 10am London time while US benchmark West Texas Intermediate gained 32 cents to $52.69 a barrel.

Opec still does not expect the oil market to move back into balance until the second half of next year, despite agreeing a global supply pact with Russia and other countries to cut output.

In its monthly outlook, the 13-member cartel pegged demand for its crude at 32.6m b/d next year – just 100,000 b/d above the group’s new output target of 32.5m b/d – and said the further supply cuts agreed with non-Opec members would contribute to mopping up excess supplies, but only slowly

“Combined with the joint cooperation with a number of non-Opec countries in adjusting production by around 600,000 b/d [this] will accelerate the reduction of global inventories and bring forward the rebalancing of the oil market to the second half of 2017,” Opec said.

The cartel’s view of the market is more conservative than some other forecasters. On Tuesday the International Energy Agency said it now expects the oil market to start moving into balance in the first half of next year.

Oil climbs above $57 after non-Opec producers agree cut

The price of Brent Crude, the international oil benchmark, has risen above $57 for the first time since July 2015 after Opec won the support of countries outside its cartel for its planned supply cuts.

Russia, alongside 10 other countries including Mexico, Oman and Azerbaijan agreed to reduce their production by 558,000 barrels a day on Saturday.

The agreement, coming on top of Opec’s earlier promise to curb output by more than 1m barrels a day, has helped Brent to climb a further 5 per cent on Monday morning, to $57.06 per barrel.

WTI, the US benchmark, is also up 5.2 per cent this morning to $54.21 per barrel, its highest level since October 2015.