Anirudh Sethi Report

Words of wisdom from Dave Landry’s new book, The Layman’s Guide To Trading Stocks:

Wall Street Myth 1: The market always goes up longer term

It seems to be universally preached that the market “always goes up longer term.” And, all you have to do is buy a diversified mutual fund or index fund and wait. The problem is that markets do not always go up longer term. Well, I suppose it all depends on what you mean by longer term.

Suppose you bought stocks in 1929 at the market peak. Provided you could have held through a 90% loss, it would then have taken you a quarter of a century just to get back to breakeven.

Let’s say you bought stocks in the mid-1960’s. Your return would have been almost zero until the market finally broke out in 1983, which was 17 years later.

When I began this chapter, I was concerned that there might be a “that was then, this is now” mentality. After all, the benchmark S&P 500 wasn’t far below breakeven from the 2000 peak. I thought I was going to have to make a strong case for not buying and holding. Unfortunately for the buy and hold crowd, the market made my case for me. The bear market that began in late 2007 would turn out to be the worst since 1929. By March 2009, the S&P was at 13-year lows. From these lows, the market will have to rally over 200 percent just to get to breakeven.

At more than one cocktail party, I have had people laugh in my face when I tell them that the market can go 25 years or more without going up. This has made for some heated discussions and awkward social situations. I have since learned from Dale Carnegie and my wife Marcy to just nod my head and enjoy my drink. Do not take my word for it, just look at the charts and grab me a Black and Tan while you are at it!

Here is an inspirational speech from Dr. Randy Pausch, the late college professor. Check out his words of wisdom for us all:

“When the wind changes direction, there are those who build walls and those who build windmills. We would like to build windmills.”

“On acquisitions: Don’t ask a barber whether you need a hair cut”

“Knowing our limitations is the key.”

“How does Warren balances between his heart, mind or pocket?”

“On philanthropy: We don’t intend to become the richest person in the cemetery.”

“90% of our assets go home in the night and hopefully return the next morning. People are our assets.”

“Be open to learning. Learning belongs to the future and knowledge belongs to the past.”

“If you sleep on the floor you are not going to fall off the bed. Stay with the basics.”

What is the best thing a trader can do to increase their chances for long-term success? Market Wizard Michael Marcus gives us a glimpse with this insightful quote: “Taking advantage of potential major winning trades is not only important to the mental health of the trader but is also critical to winning. Letting winners ride is every bit as important as cutting losses short. If you don’t stay with your winners, you are not going to be able to pay for the losers. In addition to not overtrading, it is important to commit to an exit point on every trade. Protective stops are very important because they force this commitment on the trader.” True words of wisdom!

When reading Berkshire Hathaway’s annual letters or hearing him speak, one can always take away a few great quotes from value investor extraordinaire Warren Buffett. It should come as no surprise that he is so good at dishing out words of wisdom. After all, he is known as the Oracle of Omaha. We thought it would be prudent to assemble some of his best advice in one cohesive post.

1. “Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Never forget rule No.1″

2. “In a bull market, one must avoid the error of the preening duck that quacks boastfully after a torrential rainstorm, thinking that its paddling skills have caused it to rise in the world. A right-thinking duck would instead compare its position after the downpour to that of the other ducks on the pond.”

3. “The fact that people will be full of greed, fear or folly is predictable. The sequence is not predictable.”

4. “Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.” Read more…