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Sat, 22nd July 2017

Anirudh Sethi Report

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Archives of “July 2, 2017” Day

Merkel continues to hold a convincing lead in the latest German election poll

Latest poll results published by EMNID yesterday 2 July

  • CDU/CSU 39%
  • SPD 24%
  • Greens 8%
  • FDP 8%
  • Linke 9%
  • AdD 7%
  • Others 5%

Earlier in the week the Forsa poll had the Conservatives on 40%, the best showing since Sept 2015.

Election takes place on 24 September and looming ever closer.

Here’s a summary of latest polls.

Trump defends use of tweets as “modern presidential”

US President Trump has been out defending his use of social media 2 July

By, what else, tweeting the following yesterday:

Addressing military veterans at the John F Kennedy Center for Performing Arts in Washington on Saturday at the Celebrate Freedom Rally he said:

“The fake media is trying to silence us, but we will not let them.The fake media tried to stop us from going to the White House. But I’m president, and they’re not.”

The defence comes after tweeting an attack earlier in the week on MSNBC TV presenters Mika Brzezinski and Joe Scarborough.

The BBC has more here

So what do you all think out there in ForexLive reader land? Modern presidential or really just an unsuitable way to go about your business when holding that esteemed office ?

Trump – Tweeting is being a modern President

7 Principles for Traders

First Principle: Find Your “Why?”

“The reason most people go through life with big dreams but fail to achieve them is because they ask themselves “how” before they know their “why”

Second Principle: Get To Know Yourself

“The perfect trader-if such a person exists-is methodical and careful about making decisions, extremely disciplined, resilient to setbacks, with a high degree of internal confidence.  He holds strong opinions but is also able to admit quickly when he is wrong, not take it personally, and view it as a learning opportunity rather than a failure.  He understands the value of leaving his ego at the door.  He’s willing and able to trust his gut and place big bets when the opportunity presents itself.  In fact, that pretty well describes the ideal blend of characteristics of any successful person, no matter what he is doing professionally or personally”

Third Principle:  Learn To Love The Process

“The best traders don’t think about how many millions they need to make each year.  They focus on making the best trading decision they can with each trade they make. And if there isn’t a good trading opportunity right now, they have the discipline to do nothing and just wait. Concentrating on one trade at a time is their process”

Fourth Principle:  Sharpen Your Edge

“Gaining a competitive advantage is like having a two-edged sword, and you need to keep both of them sharp.  On edge is internal-knowing what unique skills you bring to the table.  The other is external and comes from gathering knowledge that makes it more likely you’ll succeed”

Fifth Principle:  Be All That You Can Be

“The takeaway lesson for everyone wanting to optimize their own performance without regard for what others are doing is fourfold: 1) know your edge; 2) act only when you have the edge; 3) avoid taking the outcome personally because it involves factors that are beyond your control; 4) measure your success in terms of how well you performed and not only the outcome”

Sixth Principle: Keep Your Cool

“Deciding when to cut your losses is one of the toughest decisions for anyone to make, but traders at the top of their game know that they always have to make the decisions they need to make, which may or may not be the ones they want to make”

Seventh Principle: Get Comfortable With Being Uncomfortable

“In the trading world, you will either make money or lose money on any given trade. All that matters in the end is making more money when you’re right than you lose when you’re wrong.  Knowing this, traders have learned to accept failure as part of the game, but they also use the information they acquire from their mistakes as a learning tool.  Frequently, what they learn from losing money is more valuable than what they learn when they make money”

Eighth Principle: Make Yourself Accountable

“Commitment, perseverance, and discipline are the characteristics that move people beyond desire to action, that differentiate mediocrity from greatness, and that separate greatness from superstardom”

And to sum up: “True success begins with a state of mind.  But it takes specific actions and behaviors to move from intentions into action and get results”

India : 5 Flaws of GST

Image result for FLAWS# GST should have been one standard tax rate (with a concessional rate and a demerit rate), but it is not. We have rates of 0, .25, 3, 5, 12, 18, 28 and many higher rates depending upon the cesses that may be imposed on so-called sin goods.

# GST should have been under one unified tax authority, but it is not. There will be a diarchy. States and the Centre will divide the tax bases into 90:10 (for turnover under Rs 15 million) and 50:50 (for turnover over Rs 15 million). I suppose a lottery will decide whether one’s tax authority will be the state government or the Central government!

# GST should have stipulated fewer returns, but it does not. By the most charitable count, a business must file three returns a month and an annual return (total 37). If the business is a multi-state business, and the tax authority is the state government, that number must be multiplied by the number of states in which the business is located.

# GST should have eliminated classification disputes, but it does not. Fitment rates were changed many times. We saw interest group advocacy in full play. There will be disputes. Mr Veerappa Moily asked, ‘Is KitKat chocolate or biscuit?’, because chocolates and biscuits suffer different rates. I suppose the Supreme Court will be requested to answer such questions in due course!

# GST should have reduced the discretion of the tax administrator, but it does not. On the contrary, draconian powers have been conferred on the ‘Anti-profiteering Authority’. Whoever conceived of the bizarre idea has no knowledge of economics or business or markets or competition. A century of experience on economic regulation has passed him/her by. He/she is a holdover from a dirigiste regime that believed that the government knows best and it is the government’s right and duty to tell business what it should sell and at what price.

Speculative Positions :An Update

Speculators bought back previously sold Canadian dollar and Mexican peso futures positions in dramatic fashion in the CFTC reporting week ending June 27.  

Yet, in some ways, what is striking may not be the covering of 33.2k Canadian dollar future contracts, as large as that may be, but rather than there the speculative gross short position stood at a still substantial 78.2k contracts.  The Canadian dollar appreciate nearly another 1,8% in the three sessions since the reporting period ended.  

This suggests there is scope for more short-covering gains.  In this vein, it is also interesting to note that the speculative longs barely changed.  Given the dramatic move in spot, speculators were ill-prepared
 
Speculators covered around 40% of its gross short Mexican peso position, buying back 31.7k contracts.  The gross short position stands at 45k contracts.  Like in the Canadian dollar, speculators hardly added to their gross long position.  They added less than 500 contracts, but their gross long position of 126k contracts is nearly five times larger than the gross long Canadian dollar position (28.7k contracts). Speculators are net long 81k peso futures contracts, but still net short 49.5k Canadian dollar futures contracts.