Sat, 22nd July 2017

Anirudh Sethi Report


Archives of “July 4, 2017” Day

Trump, Putin To Hold First Meeting On Friday

US President Trump will hold his first “full fledged” meeting with Russian President Putin on Friday, July 7 on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Hamburg, the Kremlin announced on Tuesday.

“A date has been agreed, the seventh of July” said Yuri Ushakov, Putin’s foreign policy advisor while Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov specified it will not merely be a brief contact on the sidelines.

 The meeting had been hinted at previously, although until today the Kremlin had said say that neither the timing nor an agenda had been agreed, reflecting – according to the FT – Moscow’s irritation at the uncertainty what to expect from Mr Trump.

Russian foreign policy officials said on Monday that the two president plan to discuss Syria, Ukraine and terrorism. Russia also sees the need to discuss bilateral issues, disarmament, dispute over Russian diplomatic property seized by US in December in Maryland and near New York. While North Korea is not scheduled to be a topic, after the overnight launch of the country’s first ICBM that may change in the days to come.

According to Citi’s FX desk, the meeting “adds to headline risk on Friday, and makes for an exciting ride – other bilateral meetings will be taking place as the G20 Summit begins. But for USD, we also have the July 2017 Monetary Policy Report release in advance of Yellen’s Humphrey Hawkins testimony and of course, it’s payrolls.”

And while we doubt anything substantial will be decided during the meeting, many are already looking to the day’s main event: what will the handshake between the two world leaders look like:

Russia’s Putin : Agree with China Xi, US should freeze military exercises and No. Korea should freeze missile programme

Putin speaking

  • Call on No. Korea to abide by UN resolution on missile testing
  • Calls for all side to show restraint, readiness for talks without any preconditions
  • Back Chinese proposal to simultaneously suspend No. Korea missile activity and US-So.Korea “war games”
  • Moscow and Beijing says US THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defense) missile shield deployment in North East Asia is harmful for regional security. Call for immediately halt deployment of THAAD.
Putin and Pres. Trump will meet on Friday. Last week, Trump’s advisors said there was “no specific agenda”.  Trump has been trying to align more closely with China in an attempt to defuse the tension from No. Korea.
The agenda is taking some shape. I am sure they will have other things to talk about as well.

North Korea says Kim Jong Un ordered test of intercontinental ballistic missile

North Korea news agency now out with further details 4 July

  • ICBM test was successful
  • precisely hit target after 39 minutes of flight
  • reached altitude of 2800km
  • N Korea has missile capability to hit anywhere in the world

Last one out please turn off the lights.

USDJPY falling again to 112.83 from 112.92 after  earlier lows of 112.74


World’s central banks still cool on yuan

Central banks around the world are not loading up on the yuan despite the currency being added to the International Monetary Fund’s basket of elite currencies. Experts think central banks are still wary of the Chinese currency’s future value.

Latest data from the IMF showed that the world’s central banks reported holding $82 billion worth of yuan, also known as the renminbi, as of March 2017. This equaled only 0.9% of the $8.8 trillion of disclosed foreign reserves holdings.

 The most popular foreign currency was the U.S. dollar, often referred to as the world’s reserve currency. It made up $5.7 trillion, or 64.5%, of disclosed reserves.

The euro was the second most widely held currency at 19.3%, followed by the Japanese yen at 4.6% and the pound at 4.3%.

Central banks were expected to increase their holdings of yuan after the Chinese currency was officially included in October 2016 among the IMF’s special drawing rights — an artificial asset consisting of four other currencies: the dollar, Euro, yen and pound.

Japan seen left out of global exit from easy money

Image result for japanYields on long-term government bonds are climbing across the world as major central banks signal an end to the era of easy money, possibly leaving the Bank of Japan fighting a lonely battle against deflation.

German long-term rates topped 0.49% early Monday to reach the highest level in roughly three and a half months. Long-dated U.S. Treasurys reached a one-and-a-half-month high of 2.3%.

 European Central Bank President Mario Draghi sparked the trend by hinting at an early reversal of ultraloose policy. “The threat of deflation is gone,” he said June 27. Bank of England Gov. Mark Carney soon followed, indicating a possible rate hike in the U.K.

Speculation that Europe is following in the footsteps of the U.S. by pulling back from monetary easing quickly spread among investors. Although Europe and Japan both languish amid weak inflation rates, growth in the manufacturing sector in the eurozone is giving the ECB room for tightening.

Rising yields are reaching other parts of the world. In Australia, long-term interest rates have surged since June 27 to hit a one-and-a-half-month peak Monday.