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Sat, 22nd July 2017

Anirudh Sethi Report

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Archives of “July 10, 2017” Day

European Indices did ok today. All major indices end higher

Positive start to the week

The major European stock indices are ending the session with gains.
  • German Dax is ending up 0.4%
  • France CAC is up 0.5%
  • UK FTSE is up 0.3%
  • Italy FTSE MIB is up 0.84%
  • Portugal PSI20 is up 0.33%
  • Spain’s Ibex is up 0.2%
In the 10 year notes today, yields are lower after a run up last week:
  • Germany 0.539%, down -3.4 bp
  • France 0.906%, down -3.0 bp
  • Italy 2.273%, down -7 bp
  • UK 1.267%, down -3.8 bp
  • Spain 1.666%, down -6.7 bp
  • Portugal 3.125%, -3.4 bp

 

Russia’s Siluanov sees oil price of USD60 per barrel as ceiling of recovery

Russian finance minister talking to Reuters 10 July

On proposed new US sanctions he says:

  • negatively impact Russian plan to privatise state companies
  • would be difficult to expand borrowing plan from 1trln roubles approved for this year
  • new US sanctions wouldn’t spur exodus of foreign investors from Russian OFZ bonds

He adds that Russia will focus on fighting tax evasion in 2018.

Oil has taken a dip of its own this morning with WTI falling to $46.20 from $47.15 on the plentiful supply still but running into a little demand as I type.

Traders unimpressed by report that OPEC might ask Libya and Nigeria to cut output.

Japan May Machinery Orders -3.6% m/m (expected +1.7%)

Core Machinery orders data, from Japan

-3.6% m/m for a big miss on expectations and below the prior m/m change also
  • expected  +1.7%, prior -3.1%
And +0.6% y/y, ditto
  • expected +7.6%, prior 2.7%
In the face of this data the government has cut its assessment for machinery orders growth. Says its stalling.
A negative on the economy this lot of data. Having said this not that this ia very volatile data set. On the face of it a negative for the yen as it implies continued Bank of Japan accommodative policy. But, that is not going away any time soon anyway with inflation nowhere near target.

 

OPEC July meeting (monitors) will not discuss possibility of further cuts

 In July there is a ministerial committee scheduled, its for monitoring OPEC / non-OPEC oil cut  agreement

  • Joint OPEC-Non-OPEC Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC)
  • Meets on July 24 in St Petersburg
Mohammad Barkindo, Secretary General of OPEC, spoke with media in Istanbul before the World Petroleum Congress (July 9-13)