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Sat, 22nd July 2017

Anirudh Sethi Report

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Latest Posts

Greece Brain Drain: 33% Of Unemployed Looking For Jobs Abroad Vs 11% In 2015

The  Unemployment Rate in Greece is down to 21.7% in April from a record 27.9% in July of 2013 and a record low of 7.3% in May of 2008.

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Despite the falling rate, the percentage of those unemployed seeking jobs abroad has risen from 11% in 2015 to 33% this year.

The message seems to be “get me the hell out of here”.

The Greek Reporter notes Brain Drain Gathers Pace as One in Three Greeks Looks for a Job Abroad.

 According to the annual survey by the firm Adecco titled “Employability in Greece,” the brain drain phenomenon has been increasing over the last three years.

In 2015 only about 11% of unemployed respondents said that they were actively looking for a job abroad. This figure increased to 28% in 2016 and reached 33% this year.

The responses show that the unemployed have different reasons to seek work abroad. Whereas in 2005, the main reason was the prospect of a better wage, in 2016 and 2017 the main reason given were better career opportunities.

The study conducted for the third year running, in collaboration with polling company LMG, was based on a sample of 903 people from the age of 18 to 67.

According to other findings, 37% of respondents say that they have been out of the labor market for at least 12 months.

ECB leaves key interest rates and QE on hold

ECB interest rate announcement now out 20 July

  • main refinancing rate 0.0%
  • marginal lending facility 0.25%
  • deposit facility  -0.4%
  • asset purchase target EUR 60bln

ECB statement:

  • sees rates at present level well past end of QE
  • QE running until end of Dec or beyond if needed
  • QE to run until inflation path

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Germany issues revised travel guidance for Turkey

German foreign ministry out with a statement 20 July

  • warns German citizens to be more careful
  • Turkey not always informing govt of arrests of German citizens in timely dashion
  • consular access not always guaranteed

“People who are travelling to Turkey for pvt or business reasons are urged to exercise increased caution, and should register with German consulates and the embassy even for shorter visits”

Foreign minister Gabriel takes it one stage further:

One can’t advise anyone to invest in a country when there is no legal certainty and where companies, completely respectable companies, are presented as terrorists and there are already examples of expropriation”

I therefore don’t see how we can still guarantee German company investments in Turkey, if as has happened, arbitrary expropriations for political reasons have not only been threatened but have already taken place.”

Lest we forget on-going concerns on matters closer to home in Europe as Turkish president Erdogan continues to cast his influence.

EURUSD unfazed for the moment with EURUSD holding 1.1500 and EURGBP climbing further to 0.8880 ahead of the ECB

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China’s dangerous taunt: Modi’s Hindu nationalism can trigger war

The Chinese media has ratcheted up its discourse against India, this time by taking on Prime Minister Narendra Modi and what it calls “Hindu nationalism”. An opinion published in China’s English language daily Global Times, titled “Hindu nationalism risks pushing India into war with China” also expressed the view that the border row “is an action targeted at China that caters to the demand of India’s religious nationalists.”

The election of PM Modi has “fueled the country’s nationalist sentiments”, said the article, published on Wednesday. His government, it added, “can do nothing if religious nationalism becomes extreme, as shown in its failure to curb violent incidents against Muslims since he came to power in 2014”.
 Pointing out that “New Delhi is demanded to act tougher in foreign relations” especially with nations like Pakistan and China, it said India’s strategists and politicians have shown “no wisdom in preventing India’s China policy from being kidnapped by rising nationalism”.

The Chinese media has been shrill about the stand-off at the border in Sikkim, which has been on for more than a month. Three days ago, another article in Global Times said China needs to prepare for the stand-off becoming a long-term situation and more such conflicts can trigger “an all-out confrontation” along the entire Line of Actual Control.