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Sat, 22nd July 2017

Anirudh Sethi Report

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Archives of “Data” Tag

OIL-OPEC Secondary sources say compliance for members dropped to 92% in June

There are a few headlines about the place this morning on compliance rates

Basic gist is that ‘secondary sources’ data used by OPEC show cartel members are pumping more, with compliance with cuts for its members down to 92% in June (from 110% in May)
  • Note, news on this has been doing the rounds since last week, with various numbers bandied about (the compliance rate updated)
  • Last week compliance was being reported around 97%, so the 92% figure is a worsening
Note, secondary-sources data is from external agencies OPEC uses to assess compliance. OPEC uses two sets of figures to monitor output, those supplied by each country & the secondary sources

WTI/RBOB Tumble As US Crude Inventory Hits Record High

Following last week’s massive inventory build (and hope for improved gasoline demand), API reports another much bigger-than-expected build (Crude +9.94mm versus +3.5mm exp) and WTI and RBOB prices tumbled.

API

  • Crude +9.94mm (+3.5mm exp)
  • Cushing -1.27mm (+500k exp)
  • Gasoline+720k
  • Distillates +1.5mm

This wil be the 6th weekly build in a row for crude (and 3rd week of major builds)…

If the DOE data is anything loike the API data then this will be a new record for US crude inventory…

China official January Manufacturing PMI: 51.3 (expected 51.2, prior 51.4)

Data from China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP) and the National Bureau of Statistics

Comes in at 51.3
  • expected 51.2 and previous was 51.4
An early release for this data point
China is on holidays (for the Lunar New Year, markets reopen Friday February 3 there)
We’ll get the private-survey (Caixin) manufacturing PMI on Friday

China’s True FX Outflows Since August 2015 Are $1.1 Trillion, Double The Official Number

Two months ago, when looking at an alternative measure of Chinese capital outflows using SAFE data, Goldman found that contrary to official PBOC reserve data, “China’s Capital Outflows Are Soaring Again”, having hit $78 billion in September.

Over the weekend, and following the latest PBOC data which revealed an outflow of $56 billion in November (which was only $34 billion when FX adjusted), Goldman repeated its FX flow calculation using SAFE data, and found the China continues to mask the full extent of its outflows, which in November spiked to $69 billion, and that “since June, this data has continued to suggest significantly larger FX sales by the PBOC than is implied by FX reserve data”, once again suggesting that China is eager to mask the true extent of reserve outflows, perhaps in an attempt to not precipitate the feedback loop of even further panicked selling of Yuan and even more outflows, and thus, even more reserve depletion.

According to Goldman’s MK Tang, money has been leaving in yuan payments for 14 consecutive months, while the central bank’s yuan positions have slumped the most since January. The situation could get worse, said Banny Lam, head of research at CEB International Investment Ltd, cited by Bloomberg.

Iran has reached pre-sanctions oil output – Minister

Minister says production is at 3.8 million barrels per day

Iran has long said it wouldn’t consider a production freeze until it had regained its pre-sanctions output level.

At a conference in Norway, Deputy minister for industry, mining and trade Moazami said the country is currently producing 3.8 million barrels per day. That’s up from 3.6mbpd in the latest OPEC data.

Iran’s production hasn’t been above 4mbpd since the 1970s.

What might give Iran more room to continue expanding production is that some officials say they need to reclaim ‘market share’. Given that overall global production has risen since the pre-sanctions era, that might give them more space to ramp.

Oil – American Petroleum Institute (API) data: Build of 3.4mln barrels

Stockpile data for oil via API’s weekly survey

  • Crude build of 3.45 mln barrels
  • Cushing build 1.46mln barrels
  • Gasoline +271K barrels
  • Distillate -1.36mln bbls
Note – The American Petroleum Institute data is out earlier to their subscribers (at 4.30pm ET) and released publicly at 4.35pm ET.
  • The API data is closely watched as a guide to the official EIA inventory data due today morning (US time).

Oil price falls again as markets digest latest output data

We’ve seen a retreat for oil prices in the wake of rising output data 2 May

  • OPEC supply at 32.64m bpd in April vs 32.47m prev
  • Iran  up to 3.04m bpd
  • Russia  +7% to 3.117m bpd

Adam had the story on Friday here but the market seemed disinclined to react. A new day, week and month has traders and treasurers having another look.

Brent has been down to $46.65 from $47.50 late Friday while WTI has posted $45.43 from $45.96

USDCAD using the drop to nullify the general US$ sales to post 1.2560 from 1.2530 assisted by CADJPY selling too which is putting the brakes on drops below 1.2500

Gov Kuroda: BOJ will not take incremental steps in easing policy

Bank of Japan press conference 28 April

While all that data is coming out BOJ gov Kuroda is still banging on.

I’m going to have to get myself a bigger ice bucket.

  • no obstacles to BOJ’s JGB buying operations
  • doesn’t see any problem with BOJ proceeding with JGB purchases
  • sees no change in demand for JGBs due to volatile price moves
  • do not see rapid volatility in JGB market at the moment

Meanwhile USDJPY 108.23 with demand/support into 108.00 holding for the moment but expect supply into 108.50-70

Oil – American Petroleum Institute (API) data – Inventory DRAW of 1.1mln barrels.Crude zooms above $44.50

American Petroleum Institute (API) crude oil inventory data

  • Crude inventories -1.07mln barrels
  • Cushing build 1.9mln barrels
  • Gasoline -400k
  • Distillates -1m

Note –
  • This data is out earlier to API subscribers (at 4.30pm ET) and released publicly at 4.35pm ET.
  • The API data is closely watched as a guide to the U.S. Energy Information
    Administration (EIA) data due tomorrow morning (US time)