Wed, 23rd August 2017

Anirudh Sethi Report


Archives of “Index” Tag

Overnight US Market :Dow closed -274 points.S&P 500 -38 Pts ,Nasdaq closed down -123 pts

S&P down -1.54%. Nasdaq down -1.94%

The US major stock indices are ending the day with sharp losses and at the lows of the days.
  • The S&P index is ending the day down -38.09 points or -1.54% to 2430.01. The high reached 2465.02. The close is the low.
Looking at the daily chart below, the index took out the low from last week and also fell below the 50 day MA at 2450.07.  The 100 day MA has not been breached since November 2017. It is at 2416.46.
  • The Nasdaq is closing at 6221.91 down -123.19 or -1.94%. The high reached 6334.23. The low is the close
Technically, it fell below the 50 day MA at 6272.89.  The low last week reached 6214.40. The 100 day MA comes in at 6157.428. Like the S&P, the price has not traded below the 100 day MA since November.
  • The Dow closed down -274.14 at the session lows. The high reached 21984.74. The index fell by -1.24% on the day.
The Dow and the S&P had the 2nd worst trading day of the year.

Overnight US Market :DOW Closed -55 points.Nasdaq up 30 points.

S&P up marginally but still a record close

Today, the Nasdaq joins the S&P at record closing levels.
The Nasdaq has been playing catch up over the last 8 trading days (eight straight up days) and in the process has been able to move to a new record high, taking out the June 8th high close of 6321.76. Today’s close comes in at 6344.30, up 29.874 points or +0.47%.
The S&P inched up by 1.47 points or 0.06%. That was good enough to move above the July 14 high at 2459.27. The index closed at 2460.61 today.
The Dow was the dog today as it fell -54.99 points or -0.25% to 21574.73.  The high close was on July 14th at 21637.74.
IBM earnings are out and their EPS beat at $2.97 vs $2.74 but the revenues are a miss – $19.29B vs 19.46B estimate.

Overnight US Market : Another record close for the major US indices

Nasdaq leads the charge

All  3  major US indices are closing at record levels for the 2nd day in a row.
  • The S&P is up 9.01 points or 0.37% on the day. For the week, the broad index is up 0.99%
  • The Nasdaq is up 58.97 points today as tech was on fire.  That is a gain of 0.94% for the day. For the week, the index is up 1.62%,
  • The Dow added 62.11 points or 0.29%. For the narrow 30 stock industrial index, the gain for the week was 0.59%..
For the year, each of the indices are not doing to shabby either.
  • The less volatile Dow is up 7.31%
  • The broader S&P is up 8.94%
  • The tech heavy Nasdaq is up a whooping 17.14%.
When you get these types of days, and see these kind of returns, I get the feeling there are a lot of money managers who are under performing and having to catch up.  It is a dangerous game.

India :April core sector growth slows to three-month low of 2.5%

The growth of eight core sectors declined to 2.5 per cent in April mainly because of lower coal, crude oil and cement productions.

The growth rate of eight infrastructure sectors — coal, crude oil, natural gas, refinery products, fertilisers, steel, cement and electricity — was 8.7 per cent in April last year.

According to the government data released on Wednesday, coal, crude oil and cement production recorded negative growth of 3.8 per cent, 0.6 per cent and 3.7 per cent, respectively.
Slow growth in key sectors would also have implications on the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) number as these segments account for about 38 per cent to the total factory output.
Growth in refinery products and electricity output slowed down by 0.2 per cent and 4.7 per cent in April as against 19.1 per cent and 14.5 per cent, respectively in the same period last year.
However, natural gas, fertiliser and steel reported positive growth at 2 per cent, 6.2 per cent and 9.3 per cent, respectively.

Demonetisation Impact: India’s GDP takes a hit, growth falls to 6.1% in Q4 FY17

The demonetization effect and the resultant slowdown in household spending and corporate investment were evident in the fall in GDP growth estimates released by the government today. The GDP growth for the Financial Year 2017 (FY17) was reported at 7.1% while for the fourth quarter of the Financial Year 2017, the GDP growth stood at 6.1%. The growth of the farming sector stood at 5.2% for the fourth quarter FY17 while for manufacturing sector it was 5.3%.
The GDP growth data for 2016-17 factors in the rebased index of industrial production (IIP) and wholesale price index (WPI) data. Earlier this month, new sets of IIP and WPI data, with the base year changed to 2011-12 from the earlier 2004-05, were released. New categories of goods were added and weightages were also changed to bring the two indices more in tune with current consumption trends.
Growth in Gross Value Added (GVA) in the fourth quarter FY17 was 5.6% versus 8.7% in the corresponding quarter in the previous fiscal, while in the third quarter FY17, GVA growth was 6.7% versus 7.3% in the third quarter of FY16.

In the second advance estimates released in February, the government had estimated that the growth in GVA, which is GDP minus net taxes, will slow down to 6.7 percent in 2016-17 or 1.1 percentage points lower than 7.8 percent GVA growth in 2015-16.

For the entire FY17, GVA in mining was at 1.8% falling sharply versus the 10.5 % recorded in FY16, while that for agriculture was at 4.9% in comparison to the 0.6% registered in FY16. Similarly, GVA for construction sector for the entire Financial Year 2017 was at 1.7% versus the 5% recorded in FY16, while for real estate sector GVA for the entire FY17 stood at 5.7% versus the 10.8% registered in FY16.

The GDP growth in FY16 revised to 8% from the 7.9% recorded earlier. FY15 GDP growth was revised to 7.5% from the previously recorded 7.2%. Similarly, FY14 GDP growth was revised to 6.4% from the 6.5% recorded earlier.

Overnight : S&P 500 closes at record high for third straight day

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite inched forward just 0.7 and 4.9 points respectively to new highs on Friday.

The US stock indices were nearly unchanged throughout the trading day and the S&P 500 ended flat at 2,415.80 while the Dow Jones Industrial Average was also nearly unchanged at 21,080.11. The Nasdaq Composite eked out a modest 0.1 per cent gain to end the day at 6,210.20.

For the S&P 500, the record close was the 20th closing high of this year and the 28th record high since the US presidential election. In all of 2016, by comparison, the S&P 500 notched 18 record closings, according to data from S&P Dow Jones indices.

The price of oil had its steepest fall on Thursday in three weeks after Opec said it would extend output cuts as investors appeared disappointed by the agreement. After paring back some losses on Friday, however, Brent crude settled 2.7 per lower for the week. Stocks within the S&P 500 energy index lost 2.2 per cent over the same period.

Elsewhere, the US dollar index measuring the buck against a basket of its peers was also 0.28 per cent higher at 97.417.

MSCI to make decision on China A-share inclusion on June 20

Mark your calendars China watchers.

MSCI will on June 20 announce whether it would finally include China’s domestic A-shares in its global indices.

The US index provider last June delayed for a third straight year the A-shares’ inclusion into its benchmark $1.5tn emerging markets stock index, citing regulation worries and accessibility for global investors.

Ahead of this year’s decision, China has embarked on a series of new actions aimed at addressing these concerns. Its banking regulator has launched a “regulatory windstorm” while the central bank has made the first move to ease capital controls, providing much needed liquidity to the offshore renminbi market.

Meanwhile, BlackRock has for the first time publicly backed the inclusion of onshore stocks in MSCI’s indices and Chinese officials have even criticised dividend-dodging companies, dubbed “iron cockerels”, and promised extra scrutiny.

Overnight US Market :Indices can’t hold onto gains. End marginally lower.

S&P down -0.05%. Nasdaq unchanged.  Dow -0.10%

The markets got the broad brush strokes of Pres. Trumps tax plan from the team of Mnuchin and Cohn.  The stock market was not all that impressed (or the 2x +200 days already had a lot priced in).
Anyway, the US stocks was able to still stay positive until the very end when the prices dipped into the red.
At the end of the day:
  • The S&P ended down -1.16 points or -0.05% to 2387.45. The high for the day toyed with the 2400 level (high reached 2398.16). The low came in at 2386.76.
  • The Dow fell by -21.03 points or -0.10%. The high extended to 21070. The low reached 20972.27. The index closed at 20975.09.
  • The Nasdaq is ending the day down -0.265 points, unchanged on the day. The high extended to 6040.89. The low 6021.719. The close 6025.227.