1. Get an accountability buddy. Not only does having an accountability buddy help you stay on track to achieve the results you want, they are also a great source of motivation and keeping you effective too. To find out more about having an accountability buddy read 1o reasons to have an accountability buddy and How To Find An Accountability Buddy
2. Protect yourself from energy draining and toxic people. They will suck the life out of you and have a negative impact on your motivation and effectiveness.
3. Surround yourself with positive, constructive, solution focussed people who fuel your fire. It will give a tremendous boost to your energy levels which has a fairly hefty knock on effect to your motivation and effectiveness.
4. Create a powerful vision for your life, work and relationships. Keep focussed on it and visualise achieving it each and every day. It will help you keep motivation going when you experience setbacks, obstacles or when the brown stuff hits the fan.
5. Get fresh air – every day. Amazing the difference this makes. Try it.
6. Spend time in nature and the great outdoors. Fabulous stress buster and as stress is a motivation and effectiveness drainer this is worth doing.
7. De- clutter your mental and physical space.
8. Do more things that give you mental and physical energy. Do less of the things that drain your mental and physical energy. For a practical tip on how to do this read this.
9. Have a strong action plan and work that baby consistently!
Colombia reports August retail sales and IP Tuesday. The former is expected at –0.5% y/y and the latter at +3.0% y/y. The economy has softened from both fiscal and monetary tightening, but the recent bounce in oil prices (if sustained) will help boost growth. Inflation peaked and has fallen to 7.3% y/y in September. This is the lowest since December, but remains above the 2-4% target range. We think easing is unlikely until we are well into 2017.
Seasoned traders know the importance of risk management. If you risk little, you win little. If you risk too much, you eventually run to ruin. The optimum, of course, is somewhere in the middle.
Placing a trade with a predetermined stop-loss point can be compared to placing a bet: The more money risked, the larger the bet. Conservative betting produces conservative performance, while bold betting leads to spectacular ruin. A bold trader placing large bets feels pressure — or heat — from the volatility of the portfolio. A hot portfolio keeps more at risk than does a cold one. Portfolio heat seems to be associated with personality preference; bold traders prefer and are able to take more heat, while more conservative traders generally avoid the circumstances that give rise to heat. In portfolio management, we call the distributed bet size the heat of the portfolio. A diversified portfolio risking 2% on each of five instrument & has a total heat of 10%, as does a portfolio risking 5% on each of two instruments.
Our studies of heat show several factors, which are:
1. Trading systems have an inherent optimal heat.
2. Setting the heat level is far and away more important than fiddling with trade timing parameters.
3. Many traders are unaware of both these factors.
Underlying sales growth at Unilever remained steady at 4.7 per cent in the second quarter despite consumer demand remaining “weak” in many market but the consumer goods giant behind brands such as Dove soap and Persil laundry detergent has taken a further knock from unfavourable currency movements.
Second quarter underlying revenue growth was in line with the previous three months and slightly higher than the 4.5 per cent growth anticipated by analysts.
But actual sales fell 2.6 per cent over the first half as a whole to €26.3bn, continuing a trend from the first three months when the weakness of emerging market currencies against the euro affected the company’s reported results. Net profit rose 2 per cent in the first half to €2.7bn.
Unilever struck a cautious tone, highlighting that sales volumes have slowed further – underlying volume growth was 1.8 per cent in the second quarter from 2.6 per cent in the first quarter. It said:
Consumer demand remained weak and in the markets in which we operate volumes have slowed further, with market volume growth low in emerging markets and negative in Europe and in North America.
Paul Polman, chief executive, said:
China’s largest oil company PetroChina warned in January that its net profit for 2015 could be as much as 70 per cent lower than in the previous year. Looking on the bright side, the knock has turned out at just under 67 per cent.
In a statement to the Hong Kong stock exchange today, it said net profits were Rmb35.5bn ($5.46bn) in 2015, down from Rmb107bn in the previous year. It is of course in good company; Shell and BP have also announced large drops in profits stemming from the collapse in oil prices.
PetroChina noted that its revenues for the year were 24.4 per cent lower, while operating costs were chopped by 22 per cent, and added:
In 2015, the global economic recovery slowed down, the downward pressure on China’s economy continuously intensified, the overall supply in the oil and gas market was sufficient and the international oil prices kept dropping at a low level. Despite the complicated and severe domestic and international economic environment, the Group adhered to steady development
As PMI manufacturing surveys are released around the world, we get an early read on the state of glkobal manufacturing. As the below table shows, out of the 25 countries that have reported so far, 8 reported improvements in their manufacturing sectors in September, while 15 recorded a weakening, and 2 remained unchanged.
A reading above 50 reflects expansion, while below 50 indicates contraction.
Does Prigogine’s principle have any predictive market implications?
Well if you move from thermodynamics to information theory entropy, and consider the information content of market prices, then there are two clear analogies:
1. There should be local, transient edges (Prigogine, market prices self-organizing to minimize the rate of information loss).
2. Those edges are decaying (Second Principle, “Changing cycles”).