Congratulations Greece: for the first time you had the chance to tell the Troika, the unelected eurocrats, and the entire status quo establishment, not to mention all the banks, how you really felt and based on the most recent results, some 61% of you told it to go fuck itself.
Now comes the hard part.
Because at this point, with Greek banks all of them effectively insolvent, it is all up to the ECB: should Mario Draghi now announce an increase in the ELA haircut or pull it altogether as the ECB did with Greece, then a Greek deposit haircut bloodbath ensues. And judging by the latest news out of Market News, this is precisely what Tsipras is focusing on.
According to MNI, Greece’s Prime Minister, Alexis Tsipras has called an emergency meeting for Sunday evening, after the referendum vote result will be announced, to assess the situation in the banking sector and the liquidity shortage, a senior Greek official told MNI Sunday. >> Read More
It seems the early forecasts showing the No vote in the lead were right: according to the Ministry of the Interior, with 9.5% of the vote counted, the “No’s” have a resounding lead with some 59.9% of the vote.
Keep track of the votes as they come in live at the following page:
Naked Truth- Purpose of markets is to redistribute wealth from the many to the few. Markets would cease to exist if not true.05 July 2015 - 22:45 pm
With early forecasts all telegraphing a modest victory for the “Oxis“, barring some last minute miracle, the Varoufakis gambit – with some last minute assistance by the IMF – may succeed. What happens next? Here is Deutsche Bank’s “map for the post referendum” which presents the four possible outcomes
In this document DB, which is one of the banks that may stand to lose the most from any major stresses to Europe’s precarious status quo as a result of its tens of trillions of notional derivatives, lays out the possible post-referendum scenarios.
Here is how the German megabank sees the possible outcomes of what is shaping up to be a “No” vote:
- N1 – Soft deal: The most unlikely scenario is that the euro-area partners offer a much softer programme to Greece.
- N2 – Default-and-stay: Moderately less unlikely is a scenario where Greece defaults but stays in the euro thanks to a direct recapitalisation of Greek banks by the euro-area partners, with the Greek government using only domestic resources for the country’s fiscal needs.
- N3 – New deal: The third scenario is one in which the rising economic and political cost of a closed banking system results in the Syriza government being replaced by a new government of national unity and a new deal with creditors being reached.
- N4 – Grexit: In our view, Grexit and Scenario N3 are the most likely – with about equal probabilities. That said, we see the probability of Grexit increasing the larger is the margin of victory of the NO vote. Even with a NO vote, the cumulative probability of the first three scenarios still exceeds that of Grexit.
Greek fin min also seemingly confident enough in the result to start moving things forward
ECB cut off the ELA lifeline supply so any deal negotiated is going to have to put that back in place pronto before the cash dries up regardless of who wins
The Fak Man has repeatedly said that Greek banks will re-open by Tuesday but there’s a large jury out on that one still
Update: Sakellaridis says Bank of Greece will request that ECB raise the ELA ceiling
No surprises there then
Greek govt negotiator says Greece is not discussing parallel currency.
Regardless of how today’s vote goes the two leaders have just announced plans to meet in Paris
Reuters report the statement saying
“The meeting is part of the constant co-operation between France and Germany to find a durable solution”
Panic button at the ready no doubt
Merkel and Hollande – Not exactly seeing eye to eye usually
At 7pm local time the Referendum polls closed. Here is what the early forecasts predict:
- A poll by GPO on Mega TV gave 51.5% in favor of “no” and 48.5% in for “yes”
- Metron Analysis on Antenna TV showed “no” leading with 52% vs 48% for “yes”
- MRB on Star TV showed “no” leading with 49%-54% vs 46%-51% for “yes”
- Marc opinion poll for Alpha TV shows “no” ahead with 49.5%-54.5% vs 45.5%-50.5%
The EIU forecast victory for the “No” camp as soon as the referendum was called. We are sticking to that call.
— The EIU Europe (@TheEIU_Europe) July 5, 2015