Mon, 29th May 2017

Anirudh Sethi Report


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-AnirudhSethiReport is now owned by ANIRUDH SETHI  (Only Name been used by Real Owner )

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-Anirudh Sethi :Has never Authored any Article in Relate to Indian Stocks/Indices /Commodities of Indian Stocks.

Yes ,Before Regulation came :



Focus by Anirudh Sethi was /Still there :To Track Global Economy ,Global Market ,Forex Market ,Global Commodity Market.

To Organize Seminars on TA/Trading Psychology.

Yes ,Members been made but for Global Market/Commodity Market/For Seminar purpose.

Not Any Where it is written :Anirudh Sethi says this :Buy /Sell or Hold !!

Not Any Where it is written :This is Official Twitter Trading Account of ANIRUDH SETHI

Every Important post is for Members & that too password protected.

Think it over…………………………………

By Banning Anirudh Sethi ,Readers/Traders :Don’t know Fact they just do BLA BLA.

For ANIRUDH SETHI name is important ,Across Globe people Recognise him by name not by Sensex/Nifty or Stocks.

In 2007 ,Focus was Technical Analysis ,Now also Focus is on TA :Already Boldly mentioned on 30th Dec 2013 & 25th Dec ’14 :Stopped writing about Stocks/Commodity.

Emerging Market :An Update

EM FX closed last week on a mixed note, with markets struggling to find a compelling investment theme. The US jobs data this week could provide some more clarity on Fed policy.  We still think markets are still underestimating political risk in the big EM countries, including Brazil (Moody’s outlook moved to negative), Mexico (election in state of Mexico), South Africa (ANC debates Zuma’s fate), and Turkey (ongoing crackdown on opposition).
Bank of Israel meets Monday and is expected to keep rates steady at 0.10%.  CPI rose 0.7% y/y in April, below the 1-3% target range.  With the shekel remaining firm, the central bank is likely to keep rates steady whilst continuing to buy USD/ILS.  
South Africa reports April money and private sector credit data Tuesday Both are expected to pick up modestly from March.  It reports April trade data Wednesday.  Q1 unemployment will be reported Thursday, and is expected at 27.0% vs. 26.5% in Q4.  SARB kept rates steady last week.  Next policy meeting is July 20.  If current trends persist, we think it will give a stronger signal that it could cut rates in H2.  Results of the ANC meeting are not yet known as of this writing.
Chile reports April IP Tuesday.  Central bank releases its minutes Friday, while April retail sales will also be reported.  The economy remains weak while price pressures remain low.  While the bank signaled that the easing cycle is over for now, we do not see tightening until 2018.  Next policy meeting is June 15, and rates are likely to remain steady at 2.5%.

Rand Spikes To 2-Month Highs As South Africa’s Zuma Survives Attempted Ouster

The South African Rand is spiking to 2-month highs in early AsiaPac trading after President Jacob Zuma reportedly survives a bid by members of ruling African Nation Congress’s national executive committee to oust him, according to two members of panel who declined to be named because they aren’t authorized to speak on the matter. Bloomberg reports that the Zuma ouster wasn’t put to vote and the ANC isto hold press conference on Monday.

The Rand spiked to its strongest in two months on the news…

Which is odd because the Rand also spiked last week on news of the plans for Zuma’s ouster… It appears ZAR is now like the US equity market – bad news is good news, and good news is great news.

G-7 leaders stand divided on trade, climate

Group of Seven leaders on Saturday managed to project a united front in fighting protectionism as they closed a two-day annual meeting here. But the meeting also highlighted a divide between the U.S. and the four European countries in the group.

In the joint communique released after the meeting, the leaders reiterated their commitment “to fight protectionism.” This wording was initially opposed by the U.S. But the “to fight protectionism” phrase is followed by a comma, and the rest of the sentence goes on to say, “while standing firm against all unfair trade practices.”

 It is believed the wording was added at the behest of the U.S.

their “strong commitment to swiftly implement the Paris Agreement.”

The communique also notes North Korea’s “new levels of threat of a grave nature to international peace and stability.”

In a separate statement, the leaders condemned Monday’s suicide bombing in Manchester and called for reinforcing anti-terrorist measures, including the involvement of internet service providers in counter-terrorism operations.

US Deploys Third Aircraft Carrier Toward North Korea

One month ago, when we first discussed that in addition to the CVN-70 Carl Vinson aircraft carrier group, the US was deploying two more carriers toward the Korean peninsula, some took the Yonhap-sourced report skeptically: after all, what’s the incremental symbolic impact of having three, or even two aircraft carriers next to North Korea when just one would more than suffice. Then, two weeks ago, the report was proven half right when US officials announced that in addition to the first US carrier already on location, the US Navy is moving the USS Ronald Reagan aircraft carrier to the Korean Peninsula, where it would conduct dual-carrier training exercises with the USS Carl Vinson.

Aircraft carrier CVN-76 Ronald Reagan

After completing its maintenance period in Yokosuka, Japan, the USS Ronald Reagan departed for the Korean Peninsula on Tuesday, according to the Navy. “Coming out of a long in-port maintenance period we have to ensure that Ronald Reagan and the remainder of the strike group are integrated properly as we move forward,” Rear Adm. Charles Williams said in a press release.  Once it arrives in the region, the carrier will conduct a variety of training exercises but primarily focus on certifying its ability to safely launch and recover aircraft, the service said. In other words, training for combat missions involved the North Korean capital.

We concluded our report from mid-May by saying that the US Navy may soon “further deploy the CVN-68 Nimitz, which was the third carrier reported to be eventually making its way toward Korea.”

Fed Fail? Traders Cut Rate-Hike Bets By The Most In History Last Week

The last two weeks have seen speculators cover over $710 billion worth of Fed rate-hike bets – the biggest move in Eurodollar futures history as Trump concerns and Fed Minutes reignite lost faith in the ebullient future that sparked the creation of a record $3 trillion bet that The Fed will be right this time.

Macro data has done nothing but collapse since The Fed hiked rates in March…

And perhaps traders are starting to realize this is anything but ‘transitory’ as they covered a net 711,000 Eurodollar futures in the last two weeks – the most ever…

Emerging Market :An Update

  • Moody’s downgraded China’s rating from Aa3 to A1 with stable outlook.
  • Reports suggest that the PBOC has informed local banks that it is changing the way it sets the daily fix.
  • Moody’s downgraded Hong Kong’s rating to Aa2 from Aa1 with stable outlook.
  • Philippine President Duterte declared martial law on Mindanao island.
  • Egypt’s central bank unexpectedly hiked rates by 200 bp.
  • S&P moved the outlook on Bolivia’s BB rating from stable to negative.
  • Reports suggest Brazil President Temer is losing support from his own PMDB.
In the EM equity space as measured by MSCI, Korea (+2.9%), Brazil (+2.7%), and Turkey (+2.6%) have outperformed this week, while Hungary (-2.9%), Indonesia (-1.3%), and UAE (-1.2%) have underperformed.  To put this in better context, MSCI EM rose 2.1% this week while MSCI DM rose 0.9%.
In the EM local currency bond space, Brazil (10-year yield -94 bp), South Africa (-12 bp), and Thailand (-10 bp) have outperformed this week, while Russia (10-year yield +12 bp), Colombia (+2 bp), and Mexico (+2 bp) have underperformed.  To put this in better context, the 10-year UST yield was flat at 2.24%. 
In the EM FX space, ZAR (+2.9% vs. USD), MXN (+1.3% vs. USD), and MYR (+1.2% vs. USD) have outperformed this week, while COP (-0.9% vs. USD), BRL (-0.4% vs. USD), and PEN (-0.1% vs. USD) have underperformed. 

Overnight : S&P 500 closes at record high for third straight day

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite inched forward just 0.7 and 4.9 points respectively to new highs on Friday.

The US stock indices were nearly unchanged throughout the trading day and the S&P 500 ended flat at 2,415.80 while the Dow Jones Industrial Average was also nearly unchanged at 21,080.11. The Nasdaq Composite eked out a modest 0.1 per cent gain to end the day at 6,210.20.

For the S&P 500, the record close was the 20th closing high of this year and the 28th record high since the US presidential election. In all of 2016, by comparison, the S&P 500 notched 18 record closings, according to data from S&P Dow Jones indices.

The price of oil had its steepest fall on Thursday in three weeks after Opec said it would extend output cuts as investors appeared disappointed by the agreement. After paring back some losses on Friday, however, Brent crude settled 2.7 per lower for the week. Stocks within the S&P 500 energy index lost 2.2 per cent over the same period.

Elsewhere, the US dollar index measuring the buck against a basket of its peers was also 0.28 per cent higher at 97.417.