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Mon, 27th March 2017

Anirudh Sethi Report

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Spare 5-7 minutes & Read Some Facts

Some Facts About Anirudh Sethi in Relate to www.AnirudhSethiReport.com

-AnirudhSethiReport is now owned by ANIRUDH SETHI  (Only Name been used by Real Owner )

-Twitter Id : anirudhsethi71 (Not owned by Anirudh Sethi )

-Anirudh Sethi :Has never Authored any Article in Relate to Indian Stocks/Indices /Commodities of Indian Stocks.

Yes ,Before Regulation came :

http://www.anirudhsethireport.com/good-things-must-come-end-eyes-30th-dec-2013/

http://www.anirudhsethireport.com/without-reason-nothing-happens-watch-25th-dec14/

Focus by Anirudh Sethi was /Still there :To Track Global Economy ,Global Market ,Forex Market ,Global Commodity Market.

To Organize Seminars on TA/Trading Psychology.

Yes ,Members been made but for Global Market/Commodity Market/For Seminar purpose.

Not Any Where it is written :Anirudh Sethi says this :Buy /Sell or Hold !!

Not Any Where it is written :This is Official Twitter Trading Account of ANIRUDH SETHI

Every Important post is for Members & that too password protected.

Think it over…………………………………

By Banning Anirudh Sethi ,Readers/Traders :Don’t know Fact they just do BLA BLA.

For ANIRUDH SETHI name is important ,Across Globe people Recognise him by name not by Sensex/Nifty or Stocks.

In 2007 ,Focus was Technical Analysis ,Now also Focus is on TA :Already Boldly mentioned on 30th Dec 2013 & 25th Dec ’14 :Stopped writing about Stocks/Commodity.

SocGen Reveals The Best Trading Strategy Of The Year

Despite the recent modest drop in stocks, the S&P remains just shy of all time highs, and near valuations which according to Goldman are at nosebleed levels and which market participants recently admitted are the most overvalued since 2000. Furthermore, with the market seemingly finding itself painfully rangebound in a world where until recently volatility was non-existent, traders desperate for alpha, have been scrambling for a strategy that produces a steady stream of profits.

One such trade was proposed overnight by SocGen’s Andrew Lapthorne, who notes that “the only strategy to stand out this year is short-term (1 month) price reversal, which involves selling last month’s  winner and buying the losers.”

Here is his overnight note, according to which “Outperformance of reversal strategies points to a market struggling for direction” 

Equities experienced a bit of a speed bump last week when the S&P 500 fell by more than 1% for the first time since September. The language accompanying this “steep sell-off” was really quite over-the-top, but given that the S&P 500 has declined by 1% or more on just seven occasions over the past year (versus an average of 25 per year historically), perhaps there was a pent-up desire to open the bear’s dictionary, particularly with commentators now having long exhausted the thesaurus for variations on the word “complacent”.

 There is plenty to be bearish about. Equity valuations are tortuously high, with median valuations in the US and Europe near or at record highs, particularly once debt is included (i.e. on a EV/EBITDA basis). We estimate the US to be 25-30% over-valued if we compare today’s EV/EBITDA of 13 times to the 20-year average of 10 times (charts and data available on request). And earnings momentum, whilst improving in Japan and OK in Europe, is struggling in the US (1.5% has been cut from the S&P 500’s 2017 EPS so far this year, and 5% from the Russell 2000 2017 estimates), and what positive EPS momentum there is, is largely coming from Basic Materials (i.e. commodities). Expensive valuations coupled with no meaningful pick-up so far in US EPS momentum (quite the contrary for US smallcaps in fact) – and the market is struggling to make headway.

 This directional doubt is also visible across our factor indices, with this year’s lack of performance dispersion across styles a complete contrast with last year’s volatility. Indeed the only strategy to stand out this year is short-term (1 month) price reversal, which involves selling last month’s winner and buying the losers.

 

Fed’s Evans: Repeats 2-3 hikes are probably appropriate this year

Comments from Evans, who is in Madrid, spoke with Bloomberg

  • Says his dot is below the median forecast
  • March hike was ‘perfectly acceptable’
  • Unclear if there’s any resources slack
  • I’m looking for 2.25% growth this year
  • Fiscal uncertainty weighs on the outlook
  • Core PCE won’t reach 2% until 2019
  • Fed can react quickly if inflation accelerates

If you read between the lines, he likely sees the 2-3 hikes this year as bringing the Fed close to neutral so he probably envisions the Fed heading to the sidelines after that.

More from a panel in Madrid and BBG interview

  • Inflation well underway to rising to Fed goal
  • US labor market vibrant, fundamentals really quite solid
  • I wouldn’t be expecting next rate hike to be at May meeting
  • I would be surprised to have a decision to make in May
  • Uncertainties are still pretty high in US
  • US needs more sustainable productivity and wage growth

Worries mount over Greece’s ability to repay debts due as soon as April 7th

The news from Greece continues to portray storm clouds on the horizon

The noises still emanating from Greece that there’s trouble within the Greek government are still coming thick and fast.

The latest from Greece is that there could be trouble due around April 7th and that threats might be issued that if the bailout review has not been concluded favourably by then, the Greek government may declare that it cannot repay its debts.

According to our sources, the rumours surrounding my story from 16th March are still circulating and gaining some additional traction.

This latest “smoke” has apparently been coming from unnamed Greek MEP’s and government officials.

Greece is facing some substantial debt repayments in the next few months and these could be in the balance if there’s trouble.

Here’s what’s due:

  • 7th April €1.4bn
  • 18th April €1bn
  • 20th April €1.4bn
  • 12th May €1.4bn
  • 20th May €1.4bn
  • 9th June €2bn
  • 7th July €2bn
  • 17/18th July $2.4bn (incl 300m to IMF)
  • 20th July €3.9bn (incl 1.5bn to the ECB)
  • 4th August €1bn

Ghana central bank suprises with interest rate cut to 23.5%

Ghana’s central bank has cut its main policy rate by 200 basis points this month after the west African economy saw a drop in inflation at the start of the year.

The move to lower rates to 23.5 per cent marks only the second rate cut since 2011 after interest rates were trimmed back in November. Analysts polled by Bloomberg had forecast no change this month.

China iron ore prices lead industrial commodities lower with 6.7% dip

The price of iron ore in China fell as much as 6.7 per cent on Monday as markets reacted to data showing port inventories of the steel-making ingredient rose again last week.

Iron ore futures contracts traded on the Dalian Commodity Exchange had recovered slightly in afternoon trading to be down 6 per cent at Rmb545.5 per metric tonne.

The drop puts the price of iron ore at the lowest level since January 10 and represents a fall of 17.6 per cent from the most recent intraday peak of Rmb661, seen on on March 16.

Other hard commodities were faring badly in China on Monday as well: Shanghai copper futures were down 1.8 per cent and futures in Dalian for coking coal, used in steel making, dropped 3.8 per cent.

Futures on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange for thermal coal, used to generate energy, were down just 0.5 per cent.

Moody’s: Weakening demand to pressure earnings of Chinese steelmakers

Moody’s latest report on steelmakers in China, “Softening Demand, Increased Inventory Will Weigh on Prices and Reduce 2017 Earnings”.

  • Earnings of Chinese steel companies will likely weaken in 2017
  • Primarily because of a slight weakening of domestic demand amid continued excess capacity and a build-up of steel inventory early in the year
  • “These factors will together depress steel prices, which have reached a four-year high, while elevated raw material prices and reduced exports will also weigh on the earnings of producers”
  • “Domestic steel consumption will decline as property investment, the largest driver of local steel demand, will likely slow this year following the government’s tightening of policy in an effort to curb property-price growth”
  • “Auto sales, and subsequently production, will also slow owing to a reduced tax break on small-vehicle sales. However, these pressures will be lessened by government-led infrastructure investment, which will remain robust”

ARBITRATION ON COMPENSATION DEMAND IN RIL-ONGC ROW

A three-member arbitration panel has started hearing validity of the Government’s demand of $1.55 billion as compensation from Reliance Industries for “unfairly” producing ONGC’s gas.     The panel, headed by Singapore-based arbitrator Prof Lawrence Boo, had its first hearing on March 3 where the timetable was drawn, sources privy to the development said.

RIL will first file its statement of claim, followed by a statement of defence by the Government. This will be followed by rejoinders, counter-rejoinders and oral hearing, sources said, adding that the panel plans to wind up the hearing in a year.

The Central Government has named former Supreme Court judge G S Singhvi as its nominee on the three-member arbitration panel while RIL and its partners BP Plc of the UK and Canada’s Niko Resources have named former UK High Court Judge Bernard Eder to the panel.

RIL-BP-Niko had slapped an arbitration notice on November 11 last year.

This was against the oil ministry’s November 3, 2016 notice to RIL, Niko and UK’s BP seeking $1.47 billion for producing about 338.332 million British thermal units of gas in the seven years ended March 31, 2016 that had seeped or migrated from the Oil and Natural Gas Corporation’s (ONGC) blocks into their adjoining KG-D6 in the Bay of Bengal.