Anirudh Sethi Report

After Hitting a low of Rs 118.60 it flared upto 282 level on 2nd Jan’10

-Again free fall started and in just 2 months crashed to 193 level.

Now ,What to expect ?

After looking at Monthly chart it looks that 190 is major support.

-Three Consecutive close below 190 and weekly close will take Natural Gas to 159-149 level.

-Minor support will be given at 170-172 level.

No Divergence on charts ,All indicators are down only.Just we are watching 190 level very closely……Last Hope for Thirty Bulls.

A Million Dollar question :Why this is traded in India ?Why Crude is traded in India ?I dont understand …….When trend is decided by USA only…When Inventories had to be checked of USA only…then why it is traded and what is the logic ?

-Iam saying and writing from last 4-5 yrs ,101% No logic @ all.Indian Traders had lost Millions in Crude ,Natural Gas and in Precious or Base Metals too.

Updated at 12:49/20th March/Baroda

“Most good traders would agree that risking less than 1% of equity in a trade (where 1% is the amount you lose if your stop loss was hit) is a prudent risk. Risking between 1 and 3% gets into the gunslinging range. Risking any more than 3% is usually financial suicide, and the average trader commits financial suicide all the time without knowing it”

Three Days back recommended to Buy Pepper @ Rs 12959

-Written Boldly will blast ,Don’t remain short.

-Not only our Stock Market Subscribers minting money….just see…..Commodity Traders too creating wealth.

-In just 2 sessions it had flared upto 13748 level.

i.e 13748-12959 =Rs 789 jump in 2 sessions.

You are trading other traders, not the actual stock. You have to be aware of the psychology and emotions behind trading.

Q:  Can you discuss the concept of drawdowns a bit? Novice traders seem to think experienced traders become proficient to the point that they are right much more than not and thus experience very small drawdowns. But talking to experienced traders this does not seem to be the case.

A:  In my view, the biggest difference between a successful trader and one who is not is how they manage their mistakes. Note, I am of the opinion that those who trade well don’t make fewer mistakes but they simply have learned how to handle them when they occur. This opinion is based on years of experience but also more recently working closely one-on-one with other traders. The fastest way I’ve learned to be of help to others is to show them how to recognize, quickly admit, and then take aggressive action when a mistake has been made. Losers tend to make bigger mistakes out of small ones. They let their egos get in the way and double-down in losing trades and make matters worse when a mistake is made.

Ultimately, the best you can do in this business is try to be “more right than wrong,” especially at key turning points and be quick to repair and take remedial action when you are wrong as well as managing your risk through proper trading size, stop losses, and simple diversification.

Q:  I know that Alexander Elder recommends trading less often for better results. And after reading your blog for the last couple of years I know that you follow this strategy for the most part as well. What do you do in a range bound time such as what we are experiencing, have you been doing more day trading?

A:  I’ve been very inactive recently. In fact, when you see more posts at the website (especially those link posts that take so much time and energy to do), you pretty much can count on that I’m doing a lot of sideline sitting. In many ways, this blog helps me stay patient as it keeps me busy and focused without feeling the necessity to make trades that don’t offer exactly what I’m looking for. All good traders seem to have different ways to cope when the environment is not receptive and I recommend you find ways to cope as well. As for day trading, that is fine if you love doing that, but that’s never been my desire. Day trading for pennies a trade seems too much like work and I don’t need that kind of stress. I can afford to be patient and pick my spots.

To send in your question(s) for next mailbag, please send me e-mail at anirudhsethireport@yahoo.com Although I may not directly answer your question in these  posts, it is extremely helpful to know what topics are of interest to you so that I can find links and look for opportunities to discuss and cover your interests in the future. Thank you!

You can give anyone the best tools in the world and if they don’t use them with good money management, they will not make money in the markets….
We’re convinced that a person could make a profit simply by buying and selling the markets according to the dart board if they followed all the right things as far as money management is concerned.

Traders and investors spend all their time in search of the ultimate trading method. They have no clue that the road to stock market riches ultimately lies in sound money management.

 A good trading system gives you an edge in the market.
To use a technical term, it provides a positive expectancy over a long series of trials.
A good system ensures that winning is more likely than losing over a long series of trades.
If your system can do that, you need money management.
But if you have no positive expectancy, no amount of money management will save you from losing.

Just watch 1060-1054.50 levels.

 Two Crucial support.

Hurdles :1086-1096

Decisive break below 1431 will create panic.

-My TARGET is intact ,Stock will kiss 1419-1406 level in panic.

-Any Rise ,Sell this stock.

Stoploss ,Yesterday High.

Go short.

Stock will slide to kiss 414-409 in panic.Once breaks 409…watch unexpected selling and stock will crash to kiss 394-389 level.

(Another Manipulative stock ,be cautious @ Higher levels )

Yesterday Kissing formation at 1142,STORY OVER.

Closed at 1127.

Will again kiss 1105–1095 in panic.

Just watch 1093 level very carefully.Once breaks this level with volumes…….nonstop panic will start.

-Below 1093 ,vertical fall upto 1054-1042.

On Rise ,Sell Sell Sell !!!

Your TRADING Stoploss 1090

Once breaks 1067with volumes will crash !!

Very soon will tumble upto 1045-1026 level.

Don’t trade blindly !!

Either Buy with stop of 1067 or sell below this level.

Once crosses 1090 with volumes will spurt.

Updated at 9:05/18th March/Baroda

My definition of a mistake is when you don’t follow your rules. And if you don’t have rules, then everything you do is a mistake. And self-sabotage occurs when you keep repeating the same mistakes over and over and over again.

5303 & 5343 are Major Hurdles.

Yesterday it was mentioned that NF will zoom upto 5275-5285.Go short around 5260 & forget.

Today ,What to expect ?

-Support exist at 5220 level.Break below this level with volumes will take to 5192-5188 (3DEMA )

Now Suppose breaks 5188 level and trades below this level for 5-10 minutes then real panic will start.

Crucial support at 5154 level-7DEMA

Hurdle for Intraday Traders :5261-5275 level.

I will Update more during trading hrs to our Subscribers.

I may be Wrong ,But upto 11 O ‘clock…Bears will have upperhand.

Updated at 8:58/18th March/Baroda

Money management is the secret to success. Don’t overweight your trades. The more you overweight a trade, the more “hope” comes into play when it goes against you. Hope is to trading, as acid is to skin. The longer you leave it in place, the more painful the outcome will be.

-Recommended to sell Nifty Future below 5261 with target of 5230-5220-5188-5178

(It crashed upto 5230 )

-Sell Tata Motors @ 790 …stoploss 794.Stock crashed to 778.

(Minted money both way ,Day before yesterday told to buy above 774 with target of 794)

-What happened to LIC Housing ,Reliance Infra and Cairn India ?….Book Profit !!

-Sell Lic Housing at 829 ,stoploss Today’s high….it crashed to 817.

Sell Reliance at 1080,stoploss 1085-1090.Intraday it crashed 1067 level.

Great Money was in Reliance ,Educomp in last 2 sessions.

U need 3M and Target to get success in Trading.

-Money -Mind-Method +Target

-Money (Everybody is having )Mind (is there but not for trading ) Method (Only few people knows )and Target (Nobody is having )

-90% Traders lack Method and Target and that is one reason they are loser and will continue to lose.

 Be a Titan amongst Bulls or Bears.Celebrate your Supremacy at :www.AnirudhSethiReport.com

Last night in London, Jim Rogers, chairman of Rogers Holdings, was interviewed by CNBC after US Fed announced its decision of leaving the rates alone.

Rogers is very critical to the Fed whose solution to the crisis has been “printing money”, a strategy that he does not see sustainable, “there will be no trees left” if the Fed keep on printing money. Rogers’s contempt to the US Fed is obvious, to a point that he stated that he isn’t paying attention to them at all. He thinks investors are better served to read and think and come up with their our opinions. “Sometimes I got it wrong, sometimes Igot it right” he said.

Commenting on the US Housing market, Rogers thinks that the market will stay low for many years to come to work out the inventories.

I found his answer to the recession question evasive at the best, for the CNBC anchor was looking for a “Yes” or “No” for an imminent double-dip recession. “We’re going to have another recession, I guarantee you… By 2012 say, it’s time for another recession.” – anybody could have said that, for recession comes and goes.

But, “The next time it’s going to be worse because we’ve shot all of our bullets,” he warned us. Rogers has been advocating investing in commodities.

Short Term Hurdle :1176- 1182.50 level.

Major Hurdle :1177 level.(Complete correction from 1576 to 666)

-Three Consecutive close above 1177 & weekly close above this level will take to 1347-1404 level.

Suppose above mentioned condition is fulfilled then no Major panic is ruled out across Globe.

-This is 13th Month from low of 666

-On going Month is 30th Month from 1576 …so another 4 month or 4th month major Turning ?

-Either rally will get over in this month and sharp fall will start or Nonstop rally above 1177 will continue ?

Updated at 5:50/18th March/Baroda