1.   There were three significant position adjustments (more than 10k contracts) in the CFTC reporting week ending April 21.  The gross short yen position was cut by almost 12k contracts, leaving 66k, the least since last July.  The reduction of gross short yen positions has been one of the main features of speculative positioning thus far this year. Last December the gross short yen position peaked near 153k contacts.  Following a less dovish line by the Bank of Canada the gross long Canadian dollar position almost doubled to 33.3k contracts (an increase of 10.3k contracts).  The gross long Mexican peso position was cut by 13.2k contracts to 50.3k.  In the prior week, the longs jumped by 21.3k contracts.
  1.   This liquidation of long peso contracts swung the net position back to the short side by 13.7k contracts.  The leaves the Swiss franc, among the currency futures we track, where speculators are net long.  The net short yen position of 14.4k contracts is the smallest in 2.5 years.
  1.   Speculators hold 55.6k gross long Australian dollar futures contracts, this is the largest gross long position among the currencies we track.  The yen is in a close second with speculators long 51.5k contracts.  The gross short euro position at 261.5k is far and away the largest.  The Australian dollar is a distant second with speculators hold a net short 90.2k contracts.  In the other four currency futures we track, speculators hold a little more than 60k short contracts.
  1.   The speculative net short 10-year Treasury futures position grew by 41k contracts.  However, this reflected 54.3k long contracts being cut and nearly 13k short contracts being covered.
  1.   The net long speculative oil position rose by almost 41k contracts.  This was not a function of new longs being established.  Rather the gross short position was cut by nearly 50k contracts, while the gross longs were pared by 8.6k contracts.
week ending Apr 21Commitment of Traders
     (speculative position in 000′s of contracts)
Net Prior Gross LongChangeGross Short Change
Euro-215.0-212.046.81.6261.53.9
Yen-14.4-23.151.5-3.366.0-11.9
Sterling-29.3-36.034.80.861.1-5.9
Swiss Franc0.30.211.1-1.110.8-1.3
C$-27.1-30.633.310.360.46.8
A$-34.7-42.455.60.590.2-7.3
Mexican Peso-13.78.450.3-13.264.08.9

 

It has been a very disturbing 24 hours for Greece.

It all started during yesterday’s surprisingly short, just one hour long Eurozone finmin meeting in Riga, where Yanis Varoufakis not only got the most “hostile” reception yet being called “a time-waster, gambler, and amateur”, but for the first time one minister openly said that maybe it was time governments prepared for the plan B of a Greek default. This happened after Jeroen Dijsselbloem slammed the door on Varoufakis’ proposal for early cash after partial reforms.

“A comprehensive and detailed list of reforms is needed,” Dijsselbloem told a news conference following a meeting in Riga. “A comprehensive deal is necessary before any disbursement can take place … We are all aware that time is running out.”

And so, what was once anathema, namely the official hints that a Grexit is being contemplated at the highest ranks, has now become almost commonplace, courtesy of the backstop provided by the ECB’s QE, which has lulled everyone into a sense of calm because somehow the hope has been kindled that the ECB (which is rapidly running out of government bonds to buy) can offset the realization that what was once an “unbreakable union” is suddenly not only breakable, but no longer a union. As such the trillions in deposit outflows that will sweep the periphery are somehow to be ignored because, well, “Draghi.”

This continued earlier today, when none other than German Finance Minister Schaeuble hinted that Berlin was preparing for a possible Greek default, drawing a parallel with the secrecy of German reunification plans in 1989. >> Read More

Thought For A Day

26 April 2015 - 0:02 am

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With one farmer committing suicide at AAP’s rally on Wednesday and not so good monsoon forecast, discontent among Indian farmers is at its peak. This probably is the inopportune time for central government to be introducing the amendments to the land acquisition bill in the upper house of parliament. The amendments have galvanized the moribund opposition without giving due consideration to the facts.

So is the new land acquisition bill really against farmers’ interests? The 2013 Act exempted the land acquisition for central government projects like national highways, metro rail, energy projects, etc. The amendment will bring all these areas under the Act’s purview, hence benefiting farmers.

More than half of India’s population is engaged in agriculture generating less than 15% of India’s GDP. This is primarily because small land holdings have made farming uneconomical and there is urgent need to generate non-agricultural jobs to take the pressure off the farming sector. Until the industry is able to get the land how will it set up factories and plants to employ more than 1 million people getting added to Indian work force every year. This is also farfetched considering that it is extremely difficult for the industry to make the project financially viable in India. Amendments retain the clause that farmers will be compensated 4 times the market value of land in rural areas which increases the cost of land for industries. >> Read More

India: Sun Rise Or Sun Set?

25 April 2015 - 17:20 pm
 

Earlier in March, Sun Pharma completed the acquisition of Ranbaxy after going through all the regulatory processes for over a year. Sun Pharma purchased Ranbaxy from Daiichi in a $3.2B transaction, thereby emerging India’s largest drug maker and the world’s fifth largest maker of off-patent or generic drugs.

With this sale, Daiichi sees a close of a harrowing chapter which began when it purchased Ranbaxy in 2008 from Malvinder and Shivinder Singh for $4.6 billion. When the USFDA pulled up Ranbaxy for technical deficiencies and accused the firm of faking test results to obtain clearances for its products, Daiichi was forced to pay $500 million in settlement. It had been a rough terrain for the Japanese drug maker as the value of Daiichi’s stake fell about half.

The current bulk purchase deal by Sun Pharma beat many records on Dalal Street. On a closer look, the statistics shows that the size of the transaction was more than twice that of the previous biggest bulk deal. The Rs 20,000-Crores deal is more than twice a 2012 deal in which Citigroup sold Rs 9,393 Crores worth of HDFC shares in a bulk deal.

As for Sun Pharma, the exit will have had little impact on its performance. The merger between Sun Pharma and Ranbaxy has been completed; it is now a question of how the synergies between the two companies will flow. The focus ahead for Sun Pharma will be to address Ranbaxy’s issue with the US FDA, as four out of five US-centric facilities are still under the USFDA embargo.  Also, the company will need to be careful on splitting management bandwidth by investing in non-core businesses, as it will not be appreciated by the market in the long run.

 

Buying stocks with borrowed money doesn’t make anything a better investment or increase the probability of gains.

It merely magnifies whatever gains or losses may materialize. And then, leverage brings destruction if things go bad…really bad. And they often do.

Nassim Taleb says that we should judge people by the costs of the alternative, that is if history played out in another way.

As he wrote in his brilliant book Fooled by Randomness - “Clearly, the quality of a decision cannot be solely judged based on its outcome, but such a point seems to be voiced only by people who fail (those who succeed attribute their success to the quality of their decision).”

In the same way, be very careful of judging your stock market success by the outcome you achieve, but by the decision you made.

“Leverage can help me magnify my returns” is a great statement to make. But more often now, leverage – which is a result of arrogance created by good short-term returns or a result of survivorship bias, which is concentrating on the people or things that “survived” some process and inadvertently overlooking those that did not - will not only your destroy your savings and sleep, it will also destroy your reputation.

The legendary investor Warren Buffett wrote this about using leverage in investing in his latest letter to shareholders… >> Read More

 

The Narendra Modi government perhaps overestimated its ability to jump-start the economy, says Rajeev Malik, a Singapore-based economist with global brokerage CLSA.

“The slowdown in India was not a typical business cycle and therefore the turnaround will be gradual and uneven and will end up taking a fair bit of time and effort,” Mr Malik told NDTV. (Watch)

Critics say despite being in power for 11 months, PM Modi’s government has not been able to revive demand and drive investments, leading to disappointment among investors.

According to Mr Malik, a confluence of positive factors such as falling inflation and a dramatic collapse in global oil prices helped the government initially, but now the spectre of weak monsoon and a strong showing by China has led to a “mixed” picture of India.

He also said that the Modi government has been weighed down by the burden of huge expectations. “It is not that the government has not taken several meaningful steps, but despite that there is a sense of disappointment because of sky high expectations.”

>> Read More

On 4th MARCH :Nifty Future kissed 9191………………..We Told Bulls Story is over 

On 14th April ,We told u its kissing Formation in NF……………………Story +Honeymoon is over !

(Fundamentals or Economy had not changed in country…………….Every number u see and watch is Manipulative ,Either it comes from Delhi or Mumbai or Corporate Results )

Everything is known to few People :StockMarket Information is with people those who stay or have offices near Nariman point in Mumbai !

Each Data-Any Data……..From Trading to Financial Data is known to Top People !

Don’t Look at  Trading screen and Trade /Never Watch Blue Channels during trading…(If these people are so smart then they will not do job from Morning 7 till 5 )

TV Analyst-If they are smart …They will not advice they will trade.TV Channels gives Rs.2 lac to 5 lac per month (just peanuts for Hardcore and success full trader )

Think it over ! Technically Yours/ASR TEAM/BARODA

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Technically Yours,
Team ASR,
Baroda, India.