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Is Russia Plotting To Bring Down OPEC?

Is Russia Plotting To Bring Down OPEC?

President Putin’s recent moves in the Middle East—to shore up Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria through deployment of combat aircraft, equipment, and manpower and build-out of air-, naval-, and ground-force bases, and the agreement in the last week with Iran, Iraq, and Syria on intelligence and security cooperation—could contribute to Russian efforts to combat the myriad negative pressures on Russia’s vital energy industry.

Live by Energy…

Energy is the foundation of Russia, its economy, its government, and its political system. Putin has highlighted on various occasions the contribution Russia’s mineral wealth, in particular oil and natural gas, must make for Russia to be able to sustain economic growth, promote industrial development, catch up with the developed economies, and modernize Russia’s military and military industry.

Even a casual glance at the IMF’s World Economic Outlook statistics for Russia shows the tight correlation since 1992 between GDP growth on the one hand and oil and gas output, exports, and prices on the other (economic series available here). According to the IMF’s 2015 Article Iv Consultation-Press Release and Staff Report, published August 3, oil and natural gas exports comprised 65 percent of exports, 52 percent of the Federal government budget, and 14.5 percent of GDP in 2014. Including their domestic contribution, hydrocarbons represent ~30 percent of GDP.

While oil and natural gas are crucial to Russia, Russia’s crude and natural gas are crucial to its neighbors on the Eurasian landmass. Russia supplied about 30 percent (146.6 bcm) of Europe’s natural gas in 2014, and about 25 percent of its crude (3.5 mmbbl/day) in 2013. Russia’s oil and natural gas are also important to its Asian and Central Asian neighbors.

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Is Aurobindo A Value Trap?

Aurobindo has corporate governance issues such as inferior financial reporting, less than ideal disclosures and taxation issues relating to promoters. Moreover, the company also faces structural issues around absence of ‘moated’ revenue/profit streams and long-term growth drivers. Also, it faces potential revenue/margin erosion as incumbents return and regain market share post FY18 through competitive pricing in complex injectables, controlled substances and cephalosporin. 
Accounting quality  
Low cash flow generation and high loans and advances as a percentage of net worth Corporate governance  Opaque tie-ups with relatively unknown companies  Capital allocation   Vertical integration and improvement in product mix is a positive; gross block turnover in line with peers.
Lack of investment in innovation and no moats around its business; revenues exposed to return of competition Source: Company, Ambit Capital research. Note: = rating of 4/4; = rating of 3/ 4 and so on. Accounting quality – Poor cash flow generation Aurobindo has poor cash flow generation (CFO/EBITDA of 56% vs peer average of 85%) led by an extended working capital cycle (93 days vs peer average of 65 days).
Its accounting practices have raised issues before, leading to undisclosed income of `300mn during raids by income tax authorities in 2012 (click here).  Capital allocation – Improvement in product mix and vertical integration Aurobindo moved up the value chain from an API manufacturer to a formulation manufacturer. Its acquisition track record is yet to be established; though the Actavis acquisition looks promising, we would wait before giving too much credit as pharma companies have struggled with profitability in Western Europe. Corporate governance – Distribution agreement impairs upsides Mr. Nithyanand Reddy (Chairman, ex-MD) appears to be a connected person.

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Merkel Reveals Mystery About Her Blazers

German Chancellor Angela Merkel

German Chancellor Angela Merkel revealed details of her fashion preferences in an interview with German newspaper Sueddeutsche Zeitung. 

Merkel admitted that she doesn’t know how many blazers she’s got.

The politician, who is frequently seen in public in blazers of a similar form, but different colors, said that she selects her outfit by chance and according to her mood.

“How many are there, I do not know,” she said.

“There are occasions, when I have to wear dark colors; when I am told that I will be standing in front of a white background, it should not be a bright blazer. And, sometimes, I have a spontaneous desire to put on something colored,” Merkel explained.

The politician also admitted that she usually doesn’t have much time to choose her outfit, and then the color is a “pure product of chance”.

Earlier, Dutch graphic designer Noortje van Eekelen created the so called “Pantone Merkel” — a collection of Merkel’s pictures in various blazers set up into a chart by color in a way similar to the Pantone color chart.


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Today’s Trading levels and Strategy for our Subscribers


Above 139 level……..No worry ,Once trades above 141 with volumes and stays above for 15-20 minutes 

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Hurdle & Target :303–309 level.

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More Stocks ,More News to our Subscribers ,Updated at 9:02/07th Oct/Baroda

Bank of Japan leaves policy unchanged

Bank of Japan keeps monetary policy steady, pledges to increase monetary base at annual pace of 80 trln yen

  • Keeps assessment of Japan’s economy unchanged
  • Says business sentiment has stayed at favourable level, but cautious developments have been observed in some areas
  • Policy decision was made by 8-1 vote
  • BOJ board member Kiuchi proposed tapering annual jgb purchases to 45 trln yen, which was turned down by majority vote
  • Kiuchi proposed keeping asset buying, zero rates for as long as needed under flexible price target, which was turned down by 8-1 vote
  • More (via Bloomberg):
    • Some cautiousness in business sentiment in some areas
    • Business sentiment has stayed at favorable level
    • BOJ sees economy continuing to recover moderately
    • CPI likely to be about 0% for time being
    • Easing is exerting intended effects
    • Inflation expectations rising from longer-term view
    • BOJ votes 8-1 to keep monetary base target unchanged
    • To continue QQE until stable 2% inflation maintained
    • Says to watch risks, adjust policy as appropriate
    • Japan’s economy has continued to recover moderately

    OK folks, so there you have it.
    The economy is continuing to recover moderately and policy is left unchanged, as expected.
    The next meeting is October 30, when revised forecasts will be issued by the bank and market expectations will be much higher for further easing.
    Meanwhile, if you haven’t done so already, check out the yen move about 20 minutes before the official announcement. Suspicious? You tell me … (where is that rolly-eye emoticon…?)