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Sun, 04th December 2016

Anirudh Sethi Report

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Spare 5-7 minutes & Read Some Facts

Some Facts About Anirudh Sethi in Relate to www.AnirudhSethiReport.com

-AnirudhSethiReport is now owned by ANIRUDH SETHI  (Only Name been used by Real Owner )

-Twitter Id : anirudhsethi71 (Not owned by Anirudh Sethi )

-Anirudh Sethi :Has never Authored any Article in Relate to Indian Stocks/Indices /Commodities of Indian Stocks.

Yes ,Before Regulation came :

http://www.anirudhsethireport.com/good-things-must-come-end-eyes-30th-dec-2013/

http://www.anirudhsethireport.com/without-reason-nothing-happens-watch-25th-dec14/

Focus by Anirudh Sethi was /Still there :To Track Global Economy ,Global Market ,Forex Market ,Global Commodity Market.

To Organize Seminars on TA/Trading Psychology.

Yes ,Members been made but for Global Market/Commodity Market/For Seminar purpose.

Not Any Where it is written :Anirudh Sethi says this :Buy /Sell or Hold !!

Not Any Where it is written :This is Official Twitter Trading Account of ANIRUDH SETHI

Every Important post is for Members & that too password protected.

Think it over…………………………………

By Banning Anirudh Sethi ,Readers/Traders :Don’t know Fact they just do BLA BLA.

For ANIRUDH SETHI name is important ,Across Globe people Recognise him by name not by Sensex/Nifty or Stocks.

In 2007 ,Focus was Technical Analysis ,Now also Focus is on TA :Already Boldly mentioned on 30th Dec 2013 & 25th Dec ’14 :Stopped writing about Stocks/Commodity.

Italy’s Approval of Constitutional Reform to Put EU Integration Back on Track

In case Italian voters approve constitutional changes in a referendum, it will stimulate the European integration process as a “yes” vote will boost positions of Prime Minister Matteo Renzi’s center-left government in Europe against the Italian populists and right-wing parties, Alessandro Maran, a lawmaker from Renzi’s Democratic Party (PD), told Sputnik on Saturday.

On Sunday, Italy is due to hold the referendum on constitutional changes primarily aimed at eliminating equal powers of two parliament’s chambers and thus avoiding political instability and frequent fall of governments. As far as Renzi staked his future on the outcome of the referendum, the opposition tried to use a vote on reforms as a tool to express overall dissatisfaction with PD policies and the prime minister’s record in office. “If, as I hope, the Yes camp prevails, Renzi’s government and PD will play a vital role in Europe. It would be a great opportunity for our country and could bring the European integration process back on track,” Maran, the Senate’s Constitutional Affairs Committee member, said. Polls cannot be published in the last two weeks of campaigning, but most polls before this time limit predicted that Renzi-lobbied reforms were unlikely to pass. A poll conducted by Ixe for Agora-Rai3 TV station showed that 42 percent of voters did not want constitutional changes, 37 percent are in favor of them, and over 20 percent of respondents remained undecided.

US Oil Rig Count Rises To 10-Month Highs

From the 316 rig trough in May, American oil drillers have added 161 to 477 – the highest since January 2016. The rising rig count continues to track lagged oil prices higher and US crude production is following that trend to its highest level since June.

US Oil Rig count is up 3 in the last week to 477 – up 25 of the last 27 weeks…

 

And with the OPEC deal holding oil prices, is US production set to rise no matter what?

What time will the Italian referendum result be announced?

When will be know the results of the constitutional referendum?

Here is the quick answer: The voting takes place on Sunday but the polls don’t close until 11 pm local time (5 pm in New York).

After that, the counting will start.

So it won’t likely be until sometime early Monday morning in Italy that we know which side won. I suspect will start to get an idea around 3 hours after the end of voting but it could be significantly later, especially if it’s close.

What’s important to note is that markets will be open when the results hit and that could create a tremendous amount of volatility. Many forex brokers have cut leverage ahead of the result in anticipation of a big move in the euro.

The second event to watch after the results will be the speech from Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi. He has said he will resign if he loses. If that takes place immediately after the vote, it willl add to the uncertainty and weigh on the euro.

Top 5 Events for Coming Week

Now that the US employment report is behind us, the new trading week will be dominated by central bank decisions (no the Fed decision is not one of them but it will be anticipated on Dec 14th).

  1. ECB interest rate decision.  Thursday December 8th at 7:45 AM ET/1245 GMT.  The ECB is expected to keep their interest rates unchanged. However, they are expected to   announce an extension of the QE program.  ECB’s Draghi will have his usual press conference starting at 8:30 AM ET,  1330 GMT.  You can expect that press conference to last one hour.
  2. RBA interest rate decision. Monday December 5 at 10:30 PM ET/Tuesday December 6 at 0330 GMT.  The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to keep the rates unchanged at 1.5%. There has been more chatter recently, that the RBA may look to tighten in 2017. Goldman Sach recently said this, as did the OECD.  However, Morgan Stanley was out with their trade recommendations that focused on shorting the AUD (see post here). So there is debate.  The decision and statement will be eyed for any change in sentiment.  The RBA last changed rates in July.
  3. BOC interest rate decision.  Wednesday, December 7th at 10 AM ET/1500 GMT. The Bank of Canada is expected to keep rates unchanged at 0.5%.  Today the Canada employment report showed job gains of 10.7K vs -15K est.  However, it was concentrated in part time jobs for the second consecutive month.  The unemployment rate did fall to 6.8% from 7% (equaled the low for the year from June).  This week, Gov. Poloz spoke cautiously saying:
  • All things being equal,  need to have bigger shock when you’re in such a zone of uncertainty to prompt a move
  • At this stage too early to tell impact of Trump election; BOC won’t react to hypotheticals.
  • Big shock or accumulation of things, could change path
  • Canada has gone through downsizing phase and resources
  • Most of bad news for resources behind Canada
  • Capability may be more important than output gap
  • Uncertainty from Trumps victory
  • BOC does not make assumptions about US government policy
  • We have all the ingredients of divergence in monetary policy with US
  • If we hadn’t had oil price shock Canada and US economies will be in more similar situations
  • Bond yields have crept up in last few weeks.. That is something we have to build into calculus going forward
  • Sales by Canadian owned foreign affiliates  are about the same size as total exports every year
  • Canada will set independent policy
    4.  Australia GDP QoQ. Tuesday December 6 at 7:30 PM ET/0030 GMT (Wednesday).  The eestimate is for a gain of 0.2% vs +0.5%  in Q2. The YoY is expected to rise by 2.5% vs 3.3% last.

Overnight US Market :Dow closed -21 points

Stocks ended mixed Friday after news that the jobless rate has plunged to a nine-year low.

Banks slipped after a huge rally over the last few weeks. Bond prices rose after a string of steep declines, sending yields lower. The Dow Jones industrial average, which closed at a record high a day ago, is down slightly.

The Dow Jones industrial average lost 0.1%. Goldman Sachs, which closed at a nine-year high Thursday, was responsible for the entire loss as it fell 1.5%.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 index was fractionally higher. The Nasdaq composite ended 0.1% higher.

U.S. employers added 178,000 jobs in November as hiring remained steady. However, fewer people looked for work and hourly wages slipped. The results cemented market expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates later this month. A very weak jobs report would have the last thing that might have stopped the Fed from raising rates.

Gross Echoes Gundlach, Says Trump Rally Is Misguided: “Move To Cash”

On the heels of Jeff Gundlach’s “there’s going to be a buyer’s remorse period” warnings yesterday, the other ‘bond king’ has raised similar fears that the Trump rally is overdone (as are the prospects for growth behind it). Putting aside the book-talking as their bond portfolios suffer, Gross echoes Gundlach’s “Trump’s not the wizard of oz” comments, noting that the next president faces serious structural headwinds and warns investors “should move to cash,” as any fiscal stimulus gains will be temporary at best.

As we noted yesterday, speaking to Reuters, Gundlach, who went “maximum negative” on Treasuries on July 6 when the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note hit 1.32 percent and bottom-ticked what may have been a generational low in rates, said that markets could reverse the recent momentum in equities, and at the very latest by U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s Jan. 20, 2017 inauguration. 

The “new bond king” said that the strong U.S. stock market rally, surge in Treasury yields and strength in the U.S. dollar since Trump’s surprising presidential victory more than three weeks ago look to be “losing steam,” Gundlach told Reuters in a telephone interview.

“The bar was so low on Trump to the point people were expecting markets will go down 80 percent and global depression – and now this guy is the Wizard of Oz and so expectations are high,” Gundlach said. “There’s no magic here.”

Gundlach had warned last month that federal programs take time to implement, rising mortgage rates and monthly payments are not positive for the “psyche of the middle class and broadly,” and supporters of defeated White House candidate Hillary Clinton are not in a mood to spend money.

CEO of India’s National Stock Exchange resigns ahead of IPO filing

Chitra, Chitra RamakrishnaThe head of the National Stock Exchange of India has resigned weeks before the country’s largest exchange was due to file details about a public listing.

The group said on Friday that Chitra Ramkrishna had decided to step down. “Ms Ramkrishna had tendered her resignation due to personal reasons and expressed her desire to step down with immediate effect,” the NSE said in a statement.

Her decision comes as the NSE was due to announce to file with markets regulators about a stock market flotation. The NSE said in June that it would file a draft prospectus by January. Analysts have said a listing could value the NSE at around $6bn.

Most global equities trade on listed exchanges, but plans to float India’s bourses have repeatedly run into problems with the country’s markets regulator, the Securities and Exchange Board of India.