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Fri, 26th August 2016

Anirudh Sethi Report

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Spare 5-7 minutes & Read Some Facts

Some Facts About Anirudh Sethi in Relate to www.AnirudhSethiReport.com

-AnirudhSethiReport is now owned by ANIRUDH SETHI  (Only Name been used by Real Owner )

-Twitter Id : anirudhsethi71 (Not owned by Anirudh Sethi )

-Anirudh Sethi :Has never Authored any Article in Relate to Indian Stocks/Indices /Commodities of Indian Stocks.

Yes ,Before Regulation came :

http://www.anirudhsethireport.com/good-things-must-come-end-eyes-30th-dec-2013/

http://www.anirudhsethireport.com/without-reason-nothing-happens-watch-25th-dec14/

Focus by Anirudh Sethi was /Still there :To Track Global Economy ,Global Market ,Forex Market ,Global Commodity Market.

To Organize Seminars on TA/Trading Psychology.

Yes ,Members been made but for Global Market/Commodity Market/For Seminar purpose.

Not Any Where it is written :Anirudh Sethi says this :Buy /Sell or Hold !!

Not Any Where it is written :This is Official Twitter Trading Account of ANIRUDH SETHI

Every Important post is for Members & that too password protected.

Think it over…………………………………

By Banning Anirudh Sethi ,Readers/Traders :Don’t know Fact they just do BLA BLA.

For ANIRUDH SETHI name is important ,Across Globe people Recognise him by name not by Sensex/Nifty or Stocks.

In 2007 ,Focus was Technical Analysis ,Now also Focus is on TA :Already Boldly mentioned on 30th Dec 2013 & 25th Dec ’14 :Stopped writing about Stocks/Commodity.

Russian Oil Production to Hit New Record in 2016 – RIA Rating

In the “Oil and Gas Extraction and Refining: Trends and Forecasts. January-June 2016 Results” bulletin, experts noted that in the first half of the year the Russian oil industry output reached 272.4 million tonnes (3.1 percent increase year-on-year) making a post-Soviet record. Most of the growth was provided by the Yamalo-Nenets and Nenets Autonomous Regions, Sakhalin region and Irkutsk region. Experts believe that although the growth rate could diminish in the second half of the year, total oil production in 2016 will increase by some 6-7 million tonnes, or 1.5-1.6 percent year-on-year to a new record value of 539-540 million tonnes.

Prices on the European gas market have increased significantly in the second quarter of 2016. However, despite the significant boost in exports, the gas production in Russia decreased due to a reduction in domestic demand. The Russian oil refining industry continues its production decline due to reductions in low-margin heavy petroleum products output.

In Series of Persian Gulf Encounters, US Warship Fired Warning at Iranian Vessel

Iranian Navy boats take part in maneuvers during the Velayat-90 navy exercises in the Strait of Hormuz in southern Iran (File)Facing accusations that it acted aggressively toward a US warship in the Persian Gulf this week, Iran has defended its actions. This comes amid reports of a series of close encounters between US and Iranian vessels that took place in the region this week. On Tuesday, four Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps vessels intercepted the guided-missile destroyer USS Nitze near the Strait of Hormuz. US officials described the interception as “unsafe and unprofessional.”

On Thursday, Iranian defense minister Gen. Hosein Dehghan defended Tehran’s actions, adding that the Revolutionary Guard would perform similar intercepts in the future if necessary. “If any foreign vessel enters our waters, we warn them, and if it’s an invasion, we confront,” he told Tasnim news agency. Dehghan’s comments came hours before reports surfaced that four similar incidents occurred in the Persian Gulf this week. According to US officials, one instance involved the USS Squall. Operating in the Northern Persian Gulf, an Iranian ship came within 200 yards of the American vessel. Crewmembers aboard the Squall fired three warning shots into the water.

PBOC sets USD/CNY mid-point today at 6.6488 (vs. yesterday at 6.6602)

PBOC inject 95bn yuan through 7-day reverse repos in open market operations (OMOs) today

  • And injects 50bn yuan through 14-day reverse repos
(PBOC is gauging demand for 7 and 14 RRs for Monday next week)
more to come
Some comments from the PBOC this morning (this from Deputy Governor Yi Gang)
  • Interbank market liquidity is plentiful
And… via People’s Daily earlier:
  • China’s foreign debt risk is controllable

BREAKING -Reports of large explosion in Belgium

Reports on Twitter of a large explosion at a Belgian sport centre

  • Initial reports at least two people injured
  • At least one person has died
  • Said to be people trapped under debris
  • Cause unknown at this stage
Plaine Chalon sports center in the town of Chimay, Belgium     

Leaked Memo Exposes George Soros’ Plan To Overthrow Putin & Destabilise Russia

The recent DC Leaks, of over 2,500 documents from George Soros NGOs, has shed a bright light on how the billionaire uses his vast wealth to create global chaos in an never ending push to deliver his neo-liberal euphoria to the peasant classes.

While Soros has managed to thoroughly destabilise the European Union by promoting mass immigration and open borders, divided the United States by actively funding Black Lives Matters and corrupting the very corruptible US political class, and destroyed Ukraine by pushing for an illegal coup of a democratically elected government using neo-nazi strong men…one country that Soros has not bee able to crack has been The Russian Federation.

Russia’s political pragmatism and humanist value system rooted in a traditional, “nation-state” culture most likely infuriates Soros.

Russia is Soros’ white whale… a creature he has been trying to capture and kill-off for nearly a decade.

Unfortunately for Soros (and fortunately for the entire planet) the Russian government realised the cancerous nature of Soros backed NGOs, and took the proper preventative measures…which in hindsight, and after reviewing the DC Leaks memos, proved to be a very wise move.

“The Great Unraveling” – Hilsenrath Slams The Fed: “Years Of Fed Missteps” Foster US Populism, Disillusion

For years we have argued that the main reasons for rising social anger, populist sentiment, and general disillusion with the US economy boils down to one thing: the Federal Reserve, which as we have argued since 2009, has approached the crisis aftermath in a wrong way, generated unprecedented wealth inequality through its monetary policy favoring a tiny fraction of the population – those invested in risk assets – and instead of reflating another debt bubble, should have allowed the system to undergo a debt purge and start afresh.

For this we have been branded perpetual conspiracy theorists and permabears.

Moments ago, none other than the WSJ’s Fed “whisperer”, Jon Hilsenrath admitted these allegations have been correct in an article titled “Years of Fed Missteps Fueled Disillusion With the Economy and Washington”, and which as the WSJ notes “helps explain one of the US’s most unpredictable, populist political years.”

In other words, it is the Fed’s policies that have led to the current failed economic regime (as noted again yesterday by Citi’s Matt King and today by former Fed governor Kevin Warsh), and which are responsible for the rise of such candidates as Donald Trump. Which, incidentally, is also something we have predicted over the years would happen. As such we are delighted that one of the most popular establishment Fed watchers now agrees with our assessment.

This is what Hilsenrath writes: 

What to expect from Yellen’s speech? Dovish … Nothing … Hawkish?

There is a spectrum  of expectations on Yellen’s Jackson Hole speech.

Let’s start at the ‘expect nothing’ point:
  • Jackson Hole is an academic seminar
  • The theme for the weekend is “Designing Resilient Monetary Policy Frameworks for the Future.”
  • Yellen’s topic is “The Federal Reserve’s Monetary Policy Toolkit”
  • This, to me at least, sounds like an ‘overview’ sort of topic, more long-term than a ‘when are we gonna raise rates next’ type of topic
  • So … therefore … expect nothing

OK, what about the ‘expect dovishness’ point?

  • Is it enough to argue ‘the trend is your friend’? Yellen is persistently on the dovish side (most of the time at least)
  • We haven’t had a public word from the Fed Chair since June! At the semi-annual Congressional testimony. If the Fed wants to communicate with markets transparently there is probably a reasonable case for Yellen giving some policy guidance on Friday after 2 months of silence
  • Will she say something along the lines of …. “if the data are consistent with FOMC expectations, a rate hike may be warranted before the end of the year”? If her intention was to say nothing or very little at the symposium, this might be something like her choice of words. I imagine those would be read as ‘dovish’ (i.e. no hike coming in September)

OK then, can/will she be more hawkish?

  • ‘External’ risks have pulled back (I’m thinking the less concern recently on Brexit and China … having said this these concerns are never too far away, but the more frantic commentary on them has pulled back a little)
  • Dudley, Williams, and Fischer have all made speeches about the near-term economic and policy outlook in the past 2 weeks and all have been more ‘hawkish’ than we expected
  • Will Yellen agree, or disagree, with them?
  • If she remains silent on the outlook it will likely be read by markets that she is not in agreement with the more hawkish views
  • If she explicitly agrees with these recent speeches then the case for a September hike will be greatly enhanced in the eyes of the market
  • 8 of 12 Federal Reserve regional bank boards have signalled they’d like a discount rate hike

 

Overnight US Market :Dow closed -33 points

U.S. stocks ended lower Thursday as investors await a key speech on monetary policy tomorrow from the head of the U.S. Federal Reserve.

The Dow Jones industrial average ended down 33 points, or 0.2%. The broader Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index lost 0.1% lower and the Nasdaq composite finished down 0.1%.

Low rates have been a key underpinning of the bullish thesis for stocks — which continue to hover near all-time highs. Wall Street will be closely listening Friday to Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s comments related to the timetable for coming interest rate hikes at a high-profile symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyo. The Fed has held interest rates steady this year, after hiking rates off zero in December for the first time in nearly a decade.

All three major U.S. stock indexes remain within striking distance of their record closing highs set earlier this month.

The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note ticked up to 1.57% in early trading from 1.56% Wednesday ahead of Yellen’s key speech on monetary policy tomorrow.

In economic news, durable goods orders for long-lasting products like refrigerators and commercial aircraft, jumped 4.4% in July, topping expectations.

Reserve Bank unlikely to reduce rates before April 2017, says EIU

RBI is unlikely to cut rates before April 2017, according to the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), which has said outgoing Governor Raghuram Rajan has tamed inflation by refusing to bow to the government’s desire for lower rates.

EIU has also said Rajan’s determination has boosted real income for households and made policy-making more predictable for investors.

“… inflation has been tamed, owing to Rajan’s refusal to bow to the government’s desire for lower interest rates,” EIU Chief Economist Simon Baptist has said.

RBI Deputy Governor Urjit Patel will be succeeding Rajan, whose term ends on September 4.

“Assuming that he (Patel) does not veer off from past views, this means that RBI will accord a high priority to meeting the inflation target, set at 2-6 per cent. His promotion means that broad policy continuity should be maintained with little operative disruption,” EIU said in a note.

“Based on past statements by Patel, the chances of another interest rate cut during the remainder of 2016 have dimmed.”