Archives for: Analysis Category

 

Commodity prices have been falling around the world, and Paul Tudor Jones II thinks this trend will play out through 2020.

Yesterday, the legendary macro trader was interviewed by another legend, Stanley Druckenmiller, at the Robin Hood Investors Conference.

The conference, which is stacked with hedge fund heavyweights, is off limits to the press. We have a source inside who was kind enough to share his notes from yesterday evening’s panel.

According to our source’s notes, Jones said that we are in the downturn for the current commodities cycle. Having reached the peak of the cycle a few years ago, we’re still heading down to the bottom. >> Read More

 
1.  Despite the large swings in the spot market, position adjustments in the currency futures were limited.  There was only one gross position adjustment larger than 10k contracts.  Gross short yen positions were culled by 25.6k contracts to 98.4k.  This was the largest short-covering since March.  
2.  Speculators responded to the large price swings by reducing positions.  Of the 14 gross positions we track, nine were reduced.   Gross long positions were cut except in the Japanese yen, where they grew by less than 4k contracts.  Gross euro long euro positions were flat, but at 60.2k contracts, it remains the largest gross long position among the currency futures.   Short positions were also generally reduced but did edge higher in the euro, Australian dollar and Mexican peso.
3.  The net short euro position has grown for three consecutive weeks.   Speculators are accumulating a large short position in the dollar-bloc currencies and the Mexican peso. The net short Canadian dollar position of 21.5k contracts is the largest since late-May. The 31.5k net short Australian dollar contracts are the largest net short position since March.  Speculators are net short 21.1k peso contracts, which is the largest since late-February.  
 
4.  The net short 10-year US Treasury speculative futures position was reduced to 90k contracts from 123k.  Speculators piled into the longs, growing the gross position by almost 37k contracts to 456.7k.  The short added a slight 3.6k contracts to 546.7k.  
week ending Oct 21    Commitment of Traders 
 (speculative position in 000′s of contracts)  
 Net Prior Gross LongChangeGross Short Change
Euro-159.0-155.060.20.0219.64.1
Yen-71.7-101.026.63.898.4-25.6
Sterling-4.5-2.836.6-6.541.1-4.9
Swiss Franc-17.9-17.67.6-3.525.5-3.2
C$-21.5-16.228.8-6.950.4-1.5
A$-31.5-30.314.0-0.445.50.8
Mexican Peso-21.1-5.830.1-9.751.25.7

 

 

PLATINUM-QTLY

Above is Qtly Chart of Platinum Spot

Long Term Looking SCARY…………………………..!!

Qtly Close below $ 1289 level (December close if happens )

We see Sharp PANIC upto  $1059——————-983 level in coming Months ?

Short Term Trend for Traders :

Hurdles at $ 1270————–$1291 level.Yes ,Three Consecutive close above $ 1291 will create PANIC BUYING !

Short Term Support at $1234.Break will take to 1214——–1207 level.

101% Looking Weak ,Already Wave 3rd Started Down Side.

Don’t listen to your jeweler & Buy Platinum………………..Please !

Technically Yours/ASR TEAM/BARODA/INDIA

 

TRIPLE BOTTOM-GOLD

 

Click to Enlarge

GOLD-SPOT

Above is Daily Chart of GOLD SPOT

Short Term Hurdle at 1262 level……………………………………………………..

Crossover and close above this level will take to 1288–1297 level !

Short Term Support at 1220———-1216,Break will take to 1198 level.

101% More Details to our MCX Subscribers ,Updated at 10:42/26th Oct/Baroda/India

 

Russian President Vladimir Putin accused the United States of sponsoring terrorism in Russia and Central Asia,

Putin spoke October 24 at the annual meeting of the Valdai Club, where foreign policy experts from around the world gather to talk about Russia. Although its major themes were previewed by Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov a few days before, the Russian website slon.rusaid that the speech “could confidently be placed in the same rank as the 2007 Munich speech” (his first substantial criticism of the U.S. and the unipolar world it led) and was “the most anti-American speech Putin has given since coming to office 14 years ago.”

The entire speech is fascinating, and certainly will be studied as much as the Munich speechor his post-Crimean annexation speech by those trying to figure out Russia’s foreign policy. But one section of this speech is of particular interest to Bug Pit readers:

They [the U.S.] once sponsored Islamic extremist movements to fight the Soviet Union. Those groups got their battle experience in Afghanistan and later gave birth to the Taliban and Al-Qaeda. The West if not supported, at least closed its eyes, and, I would say, gave information, political and financial support to international terrorists’ invasion of Russia (we have not forgotten this) and the Central Asian region’s countries. Only after horrific terrorist attacks were committed on US soil itself did the United States wake up to the common threat of terrorism. Let me remind you that we were the first country to support the American people back then, the first to react as friends and partners to the terrible tragedy of September 11.

 

>> Read More

The EU budget, who pays what and why?

26 October 2014 - 8:31 am
 

Herewith background information on how the European Union budget is put together based on contributions from the 28 member states.

- HOW ARE PAYMENTS CALCULATED? -

How much any single member state must pay into the annual EU budget, now running at around 135 billion euros ($175 billion), depends on the size of their economy.

The principle is simple — the bigger the economy, the more a member state pays, with Germany therefore leading the way, followed by France and Italy.

Britain is a large net contributor but also benefits from a special budget rebate won by the late Margaret Thatcher in 1984 currently worth some 3.8 billion euros.

Many of the smaller, poorer and newer member states do not pay in at all but are net recipients of EU funds designed to bring them up to par with their richer peers as soon as possible.

- WHY DID THEY CHANGE THE RULES? - >> Read More

 

Growth in China’s auto market, the world’s biggest, will halve to 7 percent this year weighed down by a slowing economy, the head of an industry body said on Saturday.

“Personally, I think growth this year can reach 7 percent,” Dong Yang, secretary general of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM), told reporters on the sidelines of an industry conference in Shanghai.

“The economy is slowing. The auto industry would reflect that but typically lags the economic cycle by a bit.”

CAAM had forecast China’s auto market, which grew by 13.9 percent last year, to expand at 8.3 percent in 2014. Dong said CAAM will not make any official revisions to its forecast.

Carlos Ghosn, head of Japanese carmaker Nissan Motor Co Ltd (7201.T) and its French alliance partner Renault SA (RENA.PA), told the same conference he was still optimistic about China’s outlook. >> Read More

 

Haruhiko Kuroda, governor of the Bank of Japan, sometimes asks close aides how he will be remembered. The central bank chief is well aware of the enormity of the challenge he is tackling.

     The BOJ governor took the helm in March last year and soon after unleashed an unprecedented easing program that aimed to push inflation to 2% within two years.

     If he manages to pull this off, and end the easing incident-free, Kuroda believes he will deserve the title of “great central banker.” The challenge is formidable: Japan’s growth potential is declining due to a confluence of factors, most importantly the shrinking population.

     Short-term government bills, or T-bills, in recent days have been posting negative yields. That means investors are paying more money than they can expect to earn when the bills mature. In effect, they are paying simply to hold these securities. >> Read More

 

Some 25 eurozone banks have failed a health check by the European Central Bank, reports claimed Saturday, citing leaked documents.

Nearly one in five of the 130 banks surveyed failed the stress test, the Wall Street Journal and the Daily Telegraph said, ahead of the publication of the official results by the ECB on Sunday.

The unprecedented health check of eurozone banks comes before the ECB assumes the role of the bloc’s banking supervisor next month.

The Frankfurt-based institution takes on its new watchdog role on November 4. It hopes that a “comprehensive assessment” — made up of a so-called asset quality reviews and a “stress test” — will uncover any potentially nasty surprises beforehand.

Citing a draft memo seen by Bloomberg, the Telegraph report said only 10 of the 25 banks which failed the stress tests would be told to raise more cash.

The failing banks were thought to be in Ireland, Italy, Greece and Austria and will have until November 10 to fill in capital shortfalls, the paper reported.

The banks were already given a preliminary indication of their outcome on Thursday.

One of the failing banks is being to be the Austrian lender Volksbanken AG, which the country’s Finance Minister Hans Joerg Schelling said was no surprise, as it had already said it would wind itself down.

An ECB spokesman said its results had not yet been finalised and dismissed reports in the meantime as “speculation”.

“The results will not be final until they are considered by the Governing Council of the bank on Sunday, after which they will be published. Until that time, any media reports on the outcome of the tests are by their nature highly speculative,” he said.

 

SSEC-WEEKLY

Above is Weekly Chart of SHANGHAI COMPOSITE

Watch :2291 & 2266 as Support & Down Targets.

Now Break & close below 2266 for 3 Consecutive Days will create More panic 

101% More Details to our Subscribers ,Updated at 18:50/25th Oct/Baroda/India

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Technically Yours,
Team ASR,
Baroda, India.