Archives for: Analysis Category


Russia’s President Vladimir Putin called for an “immediate cessation of military activities” in Yemen in phone conversations with Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani, the Kremlin said in a statement Thursday.

Iranian-backed Shi’ite Muslim Houthi militias have seized large parts of Yemen. The conflict deepened on Thursday when warplanes from Sunni Muslim power Saudi Arabia attacked Houthi positions in Yemen, drawing protests from Tehran.

Putin and Rouhani also discussed six-power negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program, expressing hopes for a successful outcome to talks in Lausanne, the Kremlin statement said.

Japanese stock market close 27 March 2015

  • -185 points at the unofficial close
  • -1.4% on the week

A bounce into the final minutes of the trading day. USD/JPY steady at 119.18

The Modi reform scorecard

27 March 2015 - 11:13 am

In all, we would conclude that Mr. Modi’s promises of reform have so far fallen short of lofty expectations. But looking ahead, the reform process could now gain momentum, as there is only one state election scheduled to take place this year, giving the BJP a window of opportunity to push through difficult reforms without getting bogged down in local politics.

He has provided a useful primer on where progress Indian reform now is.

Reducing red tape

India is famous for its high levels of government bureaucracy, as well as a complicated tax system. To see just how much this can discourage capital investment, check out the chart below.

Since Modi took power, he has abolished the Planning Commission, an outdated institution that published five-year plans as if India was still a centrally planned economy. He has also famously introduced biometric tracking for bureaucrats – to check they turn up for work. Another other big move has been progress on simplifying the tax system. In December, a new Goods and Services Tax (GST) bill aimed at moving towards a uniform taxation system was drafted. Since then, finance minister Arun Jaitley has announced a nationwide general sales tax (GST) system – “a state-of-the-art indirect tax system,” as he termed it – to be put in place by April 1 next year, replacing a jumble of local fees and taxes that prevent India from being a single market for goods and services.

Our verdict: Pretty good so far. Reform of the tax system will take years but these are steps in the right direction. >> Read More


The strengthening dollar isn’t automatically good news for Asia.

The dollar has gained 13.2 per cent over the past six months, but this won’t be the fillip many Asian economies might hope it is, argues Frederic Neumann at HSBC:

It’s tempting to think that sliding currencies have restored Asia’s competitiveness, setting us up for a nice bounce in growth.

But forget the easy equation of exports becoming more competitive he says, and focus on the broader picture:

[W]hile most Asian currencies have weakened against the dollar, many have held up far better against the yen and the euro. Competitiveness, in short, hasn’t improved as much as a glance at dollar exchange rates might suggest.

The most helpful measure is actually the real effective exchange rate, which measures the value of an exporter’s currency against that of all major markets and that of competitors. And as the chart below illustrates, this tells a rather different story. >> Read More

Heinz-Kraft: Warren’s buffet

27 March 2015 - 10:30 am

It was easy to be sceptical: Warren Buffett and 3G paid a super-premium price to buy Heinz two years ago. It was hardly growing, and how much scope for change is there at a well-run packaged foods company?

Well, the sceptics can open their family-sized can of Heinz humble pie and dig in. Kraft’s shares traded for $83 on Thursday, implying that the Buffett/3G stake in Heinz-Kraft is worth $41bn. They invested $8bn in Heinz originally, and then contributed a further $10bn to the Kraft deal. (This does not count the preferred shares Mr Buffett bought from Heinz two years ago, which pay him a tidy $700m a year).

So how did the partners turn $18bn into $41bn? A huge amount of cost was taken out of Heinz — a fifth of the staff was sacked. So profit (before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation) increased by over $700m, to $2.8bn, in two years. Assuming the company held on to the profit multiple at which it was bought, that increased the value of Heinz by nine billion dollars, to $38bn.

Mr Buffett and 3G also loaded Heinz with $16bn in new debt. Because the value of debt always stays the same, when Heinz’s value increased, the partners $8bn equity investment more than doubled, to about $17bn. >> Read More

COPPER MCX-Crucial Update

27 March 2015 - 10:22 am

COPPER-MCX-23rd April

Now at  387.50

Now ,What to Expect ?

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About half the world’s oil production is moved by tankers on fixed maritime routes, according to Reuters. The blockage of a chokepoint, even temporarily, can lead to substantial increases in total energy costs and thus, these checkpoints are crucial to global energy security. While Hormuz remains the largest chokepoint (and along with Bab el-Mandeb explains why Yemen matters so much)

And while Yemen is key for The Strait of Hormuz…

With Bab el-Mandeb even more specifically problematic if Yemen tensions get too extreme…

>> Read More


I believe in this scenario very strongly — but if the price action fails to confirm my expectations, will I be hugely long? No, I’m going to be flat and buying a little bit on the dips. You have to trade at a size such that if you’re not exactly right in your timing, you won’t be blown out of your position. My approach is to build to a larger size as the market is going my way. I don’t put on a trade by saying, “My God, this is the level; the market is taking off right from here.” I am definitely a scale-in type of trader. I do the same thing getting out of positions. I don’t say, “Fine, I’ve made enough money. This is it. I’m out.” Instead, I start to lighten up as I see the fundamentals or price action changing.


Worst is over…………………..!!

Yes ,All Eyes on this stock.

Above Rs 8 ,Thirsty Traders ……………..Don’t Miss it !

We see Blast upto 10.50—–12.50 in next 1-3 sessions ??

Investors :Keep a stop of Rs.6 ,buy it in TONS……………..Chart Indicates :Target of Rs.16+

Don’t ask NEWS ,But Yes somebody wants to Buy in TONS TONS TONS

Updated at 9:07/27th March/Baroda



PANIC upto 2122————————————-2095 on card.

Now ,Three Consecutive close below 2095+weekly close will take to 2012—-1985 level very soon

On Rise ,Sell Sell !!



Panic UPTO 1266————–1254 ON CARD 

Who will save this stock if breaks & closes below 1254 level ??


854 is Last Hope 

Three Consecutive close below this level +Weekly close 

Will take to 810—–796 level in panic !


Our Target of 292—-268 intact 

Yes ,Just need Patience ………..Nothing else.On Rise ,Sell Sell !!

More Stocks ,Intraday Trading levels to our Subscribers

Updated at 8:57/27th March/Baroda

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Technically Yours,
Team ASR,
Baroda, India.