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Thu, 05th May 2016

Anirudh Sethi Report

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Archives of “Analysis” Category

IMF: Oil Producers Must Diversify to Mitigate Likelihood of Volatility

OilLarge oil producing nations should adopt policies aimed at economic diversification to limit the impact of future oil price volatility, International Monetary Fund (IMF) fiscal policy division chief Benedict Clements told Sputnik.

“There is still an expectation that oil price volatility could potentially continue… We are saying, in effect, that economic diversification would help deal with some of this volatility, in the sense of if you’re overly reliant on the oil sector then when bad times come in the oil sector, you are not as vulnerable,” Clements said on Wednesday.

Clements explained that the levels of oil price volatility continue to be uncertain with a wide spread of predictions. Some market participants anticipate a rebound in oil prices into the $120 per barrel range in the next four years. Others have predicted prices will remain close to $30 per barrel.

BREAKING -UK services growth weakest ‘in over 3 years’

Activity in Britain’s dominant services industry slowed significantly in April, according to a closely-watched indicator of performance, raising fresh concerns that the forthcoming EU membership referendum is putting the brakes on economic growth.

Markit’s services purchasing managers’ index (PMI) fell to 52.3 in April from 53.7 the previous month.

April’s reading is the lowest since February 2013 and was far worse than forecast – economists had expected a dip to 53.5.

The UK economy expanded by 0.4 per cent in the first three months of the year, down from 0.6 per cent growth in the final quarter of 2015.

Iran’s Javadi says oil production now up to 3.7m bpd

Iranian deputy oil minister out on Bloomberg 5 May 2016

  • output to reach 3.8m bpd in a few days

Iran’s determination to drive output back to pre-sanction levels around 4m bpd continues at pace.

Brent and WTI still underpinned on Libyan unrest/Canadian oil sands disruption but just off session highs at $45.55 and $44.98

China responds to inclusion on US ‘currency manipulation’

Xinhua News Agency in a commentary piece on China’s inclusion on the US Treasury’s ‘Monitoring List’

This is via MNI:
  • China will not manipulate the currency to seek a trade surplus
  • China’s huge trade surplus is a result of growing external demand thanks to the economic recovery in the US and some European countries
  • The increased surplus was also the result of waning value, not volume, of China’s imports, mainly due to persistent weak commodity prices
  • China’s government policy is to keep the yuan’s exchange rates “largely stable,” and promised to gradually establish an exchange rate mechanism based on market supply and demand with a two-way floating and flexibility feature
  • China’s economic fundamentals rule out substantial depreciation of the yuan and support the long-term stability of the currency, according to the commentary

Implement rule on 85% pictorial warnings: Supreme Court to tobacco firms

The Supreme Court on Wednesday directed all tobacco companies to implement the rule mandating 85% pictorial warnings on packets of tobacco products.

A bench headed by justice P.C. Ghosh also directed all petitions challenging the rule at various courts to be transferred and heard afresh by the Karnataka high court. The apex court set a deadline of eight weeks to dispose of the matter.

The court also said any stay order obtained from a court where the matter was being heard would be ineffective.

“No order passed by any court until now will hold and the matter would be heard afresh,” said justice Ghosh.

As bad loan of PSU banks pile up, Govt plans panel to cleanup mess

The government is considering setting up an independent panel to help state-owned banks negotiate settlements with big businesses on bad loans, in order to shield bankers from a populist backlash they say is hobbling efforts to clean up their balance sheets.

India’s $121 billion troubled debt pile, over $100 billion of which is on the books of state-owned banks, has come under close scrutiny from prosecutors, the media and politicians. Some have blamed banks for going too easy on corporate tycoons, and do not want taxpayers propping up the struggling banking sector.

The proposal, being examined by the government and in its early stages, would give the panel power to define the “haircut” a bank should face on a loan gone sour, protecting bankers from critics who want failed Indian firms to pay back in full, two finance ministry and two central bank officials said.

Bad debt has hampered banks’ ability to lend, threatening to throttle a nascent economic recovery.