Archives for: Analysis Category

 

India is many things to many people. To Russia’s Phosagro, it is a fertile source of phosphate sales.

Phosagro, the world’s third-largest producer of phosphate fertilisers, has signed a three-year supply contract with India in a move that signals growing confidence in one of the world’s largest fertiliser consumers 

The Russian company has agreed to supply state-owned Indian Potash Ltd with 1.35m tonnes of phosphates over three years, Phosagro told the FT.

“What we see right now in India is a booming economy. We have huge demand from this country,” said Andrei Guryev, Phosagro chief executive.

India is the world’s second-largest consumer of phosphate fertilisers and the largest importer of diammonium phosphate (DAP), a key form. But demand has been depressed in recent years, helping to trigger a slump in prices from a high of $660 per tonne in 2011 to around $460 last year. >> Read More

 

No-one really knows what’s going to happen next. For what it’s worth, Deutsche Bank’s best guess is as follows:

We see as an agreement between the government and its creditors as still the (marginally) higher probability outcome. But with the government’s cash position exhausted, time is running out.

The potential need to take an agreement through a referendum or parliamentary approval makes a non-payment to the IMF [International Monetary Fund] over the course of June a distinct possibility.

Such an event may not automatically trigger a suspension of ECB [European Central Bank] financing, provided the domestic approval process happens quickly. Agreement without capital controls therefore remains our baseline (60% probability).

The alternative is that no agreement is reached in time and/or that the politics breaks down making timely approval of an agreement through parliament impossible. This would then lead to a suspension of ECB financing to Greek banks and the resulting imposition of capital controls (40% probability).

A prime example of an essential economist’s hedge-your-bets trick, there: a 60/40 split. “One way or another, June should provide the answers,” adds George Saravelos, author of the report. >> Read More

  • Varoufakis has the support of govt and PM Tsipras

  • govt denies any plan to bundle IMF payments in June to pay in one go

I wouldn’t get too excited just yet folks

  • statements that do not share Greek govt’s optimism on a deal are linked to pressuring govt
  • coming days are crucial
  • Greek team is in Brussels to conclude a deal
  • if there is no deal there will be wider consequences for EU, not just financial ones

Fighting talk from spokesman Sakellardis

  • 2015 fiscal gap issue will be solved by Sunday
  • we have put forward very specific proposals, technical teams have improved on it and we are optimistic on a deal

EURUSD still looking supported around 1.0940 as the euro finds some love this morning on Greek hopes again

 

The absence of an upward revision to UK GDP growth in the first three months of the year has proved a disappointment to city economists.

Expansion was left at 0.3 per cent for the first quarter compared with the prior quarter,the Office for National Statistics said earlier on Thursday in its second look at the economy’s performance.

Here’s a roundup of reaction from economists, whose consensus was that GDP would be revised higher t0 0.4 per cent.

UBS

The expenditure breakdown showed a large negative contribution from net trade (0.9 percentage points), reflecting strong import growth in oil and transport equipment.

Household consumption increased by 0.5%, down from 0.6%in Q4. A ‘silver lining’ in the breakdown was a 1.7% rise in business investment, more than reversing a drop in Q4

Overall Q1 GDP growth in the UK was relatively soft. While some part of that represents ‘data noise’, such as in construction, the impression was there was also a deceleration in activity growth. Going forward we would expect some strengthening in performance, with the service sector regaining some traction.

But indicators will be watched closely in coming months as the degree of any underlying slowing is assessed.

>> Read More

The Easy Way vs the Hard Way

28 May 2015 - 15:45 pm
 

Excuse this short break from the usually nerdy commentary to discuss something important, but a bit off topic. I wasdirected to this amazingly hilarious Tweetstorm by the Kentucky Fried Chicken account:

“It is comparatively easy to prosper by trickery, the violation of confidence, oppression of the weak, sharp practices, cutting corners—all of those methods that we are prone to palliate and condone as ‘business shrewdness.’ It is difficult to prosper by the keeping of promises, the delivery of value in goods, in services and in deeds—and in the meeting of so-called ‘shrewdness’ with sound merit and good business ethics. The Easy Way is efficacious and speedy—The Hard Way is arduous and long. But, as the clock ticks, The Easy Way becomes harder and The Hard Way becomes easier. And as the calendar records the years, it becomes increasingly evident that The Easy Way rests hazardously upon shifting sands, whereas The Hard Way builds solidly a foundation of confidence that cannot be swept away. Thus we builded.”

While it’s obviously somewhat hilarious there is a great deal of truth in the comments about “the Hard Way” and “the Easy Way”.  The world is becoming a “what have you done for me lately” place. A world of 140 characters. A world where attention spans are a matter of minutes. A world where instant gratification is always expected. The Easy Way is becoming the goal of an increasing number of people and I have to wonder what kind of negative impact this mentality is having on all sorts of things.

The reality of the world we live in is that many of the best things in life don’t come in 140 characters or with immediate gratification (well, except maybe a bite of KFC chicken).  Many of the best things in life will come the Hard Way. This is as true in portfolio management as it is in life, love and all sorts of other things. This is a simple, but important message that more and more of us probably need to remind ourselves of in this age of instant gratification. So, thanks to KFC for reminding us that the best things in life don’t come easy.

An Insane Financial World

28 May 2015 - 13:56 pm
 

We know that most western governments are deficit spending, borrowing heavily, in debt beyond the point of no return and must increase taxes and appropriations from their citizens.

We know that politicians will take the politically expedient path instead of addressing financial problems.  We know they will “extend and pretend,” delay, and distract the populace.

We know that war has been a nearly constant distraction since 9-11 and that a crisis is often used as a justification for economic insanity, such as borrowing more to address an excessive debt problem.  It seems likely that weakening economies, deflationary forces, excessive debt, massive unemployment, riots, economic anxiety, consumer price inflation, and so much more, will require more distractions.  We should “rig for stormy weather” and expect another crisis and more wars.

Bankers, politicians and military contractors will benefit.  IN OUR INSANE WORLD WE MIGHT ASK:

  • What happens to our financial system and the price of gold when western central banks are no longer willing or able to ship gold to Asia in exchange for fiat currencies held by Russia and China?
  • What would happen if the Chinese government announced that it will buy gold at $2,000 per ounce to boost their stockpile? When gold is no longer available at $2,000 per ounce, might they offer $4,000 or $6,000?
  • What would happen if the central banks of the world admitted that Quantitative Easing is primarily beneficial for banks and the wealthy, and that QE has been a failure at stimulating western economies?
  • What would happen to global confidence if central banks admitted that consumer prices will rise substantially due to QE and inflation of the money supply?
  • What would happen if commercial banks announced they will charge you for depositing your currency in their bank? (Oops, that has already happened.)
  • What should we expect if banks penalize savers for depositing (loaning) currency to a bank? We should expect an increasing use of cash – actual paper notes.  But there appears to be a “war on cash” in western countries.  Discourage cash, force deposits into banks, charge for those deposits, squeeze savers as much as possible, increase controls, and boost financial system bonuses.

>> Read More

SHANGHAI-CRASHED

Above is Daily Chart of SHANGHAI COMPOSITE

http://www.anirudhsethireport.com/shanghai-composite-index-ytd-is-up-by-48-82-hurdle-target-intact-5010-5289/

Our Target for Rally was 5010———–5289 (Today it kissed  4986 & CRASHED )

Now ,All Eyes on 4578 level.

Break will take to 4442—————-4397 level in panic !

Yes ,Small Correction is must.

Some Jokers on Blue Channels were doing BLA BLA…………..Without any reason +Fundamentals Shanghai Composite had spurted ,These Idiots were not able to Buy or Make Profit and started doing BLA BLA !

Technically Yours/ASR TEAM/BARODA

COPPER101

 

Now at  393 level.

Yes ,In Freefall Mode as expected :Told if revives…………Sell Sell Sell !!

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Technically Yours,
Team ASR,
Baroda, India.