•  
Thu, 30th March 2017

Anirudh Sethi Report

  •  

Archives of “Analysis” Category

“Did Russia Ever Interfere In The US Elections?” Putin Answers: “Watch My Lips, No”

Speaking at a CNBC-moderated panel, Russian President Vladimir Putin once again said that accusations of Russian interference in the US presidential elections are “lies” used for “domestic American politics.”

“We said on numerous occasions and I reiterate that we are confident … And know for sure that opinion polls in the Unites States show that very many people are … friendly towards the Russian Federation and I’d like to tell these people that we perceive and regard the United States as a great power with which we want to establish good partnership relations,” Putin said and added “All those things are fictional, illusory and provocations, lies. All these are used for domestic American political agendas. The anti-Russian card is played by different political forces inside the United States to trade on that and consolidate their positions inside.”

Putin refuted the findings of a January ODN report which in January found that “Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered an influence campaign in 2016 aimed at the US presidential election. Russia’s goals were to undermine public faith in the U.S. democratic process, denigrate Secretary (Hillary) Clinton, and harm her electability and potential presidency. We further assess Putin and the Russian government developed a clear preference for President-elect Trump,” the report said, adding that intelligence agencies have “high confidence” in that assessment, although have yet to release any of the facts backing the assessment.

FInally, Putin explicitly denied that Russia meddled in the U.S. elections. Putin quoted George Bush when asked if the “Russian government had ever tried to influence the outcome of the US presidential election, and there will be no evidence found?” to which he responded “Watch my lips, no.”

Q4 GDP Revised Higher To 2.1% As Consumers Splurge On “Foreign Travel And Recreation Services”

In the third and final estimate of Q4 GDP, the BEA revised the previous estimate of 1.8% notably higher to 2.1%, driven by a sharp upward revision to consumer spending, which rose 3.5% in Q4, after rising 3.0% in Q2, and contributed 2.4% to the bottom GDP line – in other words consumption alone was more than the entire GDP increase- up from 2.05% in the second revision.

The increase in real GDP reflected an increase in consumer spending, private inventory investment, residential investment, business investment, and state and local government spending. These contributions were partly offset by declines in exports and federal government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased. Trade subtracted 1.82 percentage points from growth, the most since 2004, compared with the prior estimate of a 1.7-point drag, on weaker exports and higher imports

The biggest contributor to the upward revision to consumption reflected spending on net foreign travel and recreation services, as well as gasoline and other energy goods

Prices of goods and services purchased by U.S. residents increased 2.0 percent in the fourth quarter after increasing 1.5 percent in the third quarter. Excluding energy and food, prices rose 1.6 percent after increasing 1.7 percent.

Foreign Investors Are Dumping Japanese Bonds & Stocks At Almost Record Pace

Foreigners selling Japanese assets has become very seasonal as liquidity needs appear critical at quarter-ends for much of the last three years.

Last week – as Q1 ends – Foreigners sold 1.923 trillion Yen in Japanese bonds and 754 billion Yen in Japanese stocks. That was the second largest dump of Japanese assets in history

This is also the biggest Q1 plunge ever – worse than in 2008.

The size of this combined selling of Japanese bonds and stocks at $24 billion in one week, was only bettered by the Q3 2016-end.

Trump to meet China’s Xi Jinping on April 6-7

Chinese President Xi Jinping and Donald Trump will meet on April 6 and 7 at Mr Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort in Palm Beach, Florida.

The two leaders will meet at the US president’s so-called winter White House, marking their first face-to-face meeting, state news outlet Xinhua reported, citing a statement from China’s foreign ministry.

The meeting had been expected in April, though no dates had previously been given by either side.

After Brexit, 9 Reasons To Be Bullish On Great Britain

Today Mrs. May finally officially announced Brexit and kicked-off the process of divorce from the EU. A disaster for Britain, according to officials in Brussels, Berlin and Paris. Really?

Rarely there is such broad consensus: The British voters made a huge mistake in voting for Brexit. The country will suffer for decades to come and deeply regret the decision while the EU and the Eurozone will continue to generate prosperity and peace for the continent. This view is predominant in the media of continental Europe and it is the key massage of its politicians, who fear nothing more than that other countries might follow the British example. Therefore the costs for Brexit have to be high and punishing.

Whenever there is broad consensus it is worthwhile to challenge it. Could it be, that the British end up much better off, than we think? Here are ten reasons why: 

1.     No recession: According to experts from IMF to Bank of England Great Britain should already be in a deep recession. In case of a Brexit vote they projected a crash in the real estate market, a drop in consumer spending and a collaps of economic activity. In reality the economy grew faster then before. If the experts cannot predict the short term consequences correctly, how should they be right in the medium- to long-term?

 2.     Good shock: The steep fall in the pound contributed to this positive outcome. This has the welcome effect of supporting exports and hindering imports, therefore kicking-off a rebalancing of the British economy, which ran a trade deficit of five percent of GDP before. Such deficits are not sustainable as we can see in the crisis countries of the Eurozone. Moreover the Brexit vote has initiated a process of modernization of the British economy just at the right moment. Lower taxes, more investments and a re-industrialization of the country can lay the basis for more growth in the future.

China press (Xinhua) overnight cite ‘think tank’ Q1 GDP forecast at 6.8%

Xinhua is China’s official state news agency

Citing The National Academy of Economic Strategy (to save you Googling that … they are a part of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS), which are the big cheese in research in China)
  • Economy is forecast to grow 6.8% in Q1 this year
  • For H1, prediction is +6.7%, industrial production seen expanding moderately in Q2, investment growing but more slowly
  • sees slightly slower growth, according to the think tank.
    It said policy should work to reduce risks in the property & financial sectors

Overnight US Market : Broader market up. Dow down.

S&P up +0.11%. Nasdaq up +0.38%

The major US stock indices are ending the session mixed with the broader markets up, while the more specialized Dow Industrial Average down.
  • S&P index is ending the day up 2.56 points or +0.11%
  • Nasdaq composite index is ending the day up 22.40 points or 0.38%
  • Dow Industrial Average is down -42.18 points or-0.20%
The Dow has been down 9 of the last 10 trading days. For the year it is still up 4.54% while the S&P is up 5.46% and the Nasdaq is up 9.56%.