Anirudh Sethi Report

TRADING WISDOM

admin — Fri, 03 Sep 2010 15:54:31 +0000

My Trading Wisdom ….Thoughts

Just Relax & Watch this Video for 15 Minutes

101% ….U can comment !!

Updated at 21:23/3rd September/Baroda/India

Tags: Anirudh Sethi, Baroda, india, Trading Pyschology, Trading Quotes, Trading Wisdom

cfor Traders

admin — Fri, 03 Sep 2010 11:16:11 +0000

1) Cut Risk – It’s that “above all else, do no harm” principle. If you don’t have a feel for the market, trade small while you regain your feel. Preserve as much of your capital as possible to lay the foundation for your recovery;

2) Focus on Your Strengths – It’s not unusual for frustrated traders to try to make all kinds of changes in their trading in a frantic effort to gain some traction. These efforts can compound difficulties by getting traders further and further from their strengths. During rebuilding periods, you want to focus on the markets and strategies that you know most about, that represent your strengths.

3) Reach Out – It’s especially helpful to reach out to traders who trade markets and strategies similar to yours. Are they also struggling? If so, this suggests that market changes, indeed, may be at the root of the problem. If the traders you contact are succeeding, try to find out what they’re doing differently from you. It may well be that a simple tweaking of execution, holding times, and risk management could turn your performance around.

4) Stay Constructive – You may well be in a rebuilding period. This happens to the best athletes and sports franchises. It doesn’t mean you’ve lost all talent and skill. Identifying the kinds of trades that are working for you is a start toward rebuilding: you want to find the common denominators behind your successful trades so that you can emphasize these going forward.

5) Work on Your Self-Talk – Hard as it is, it’s important to stay positive during a rebuilding period. The last thing you want to do is create additional interference by beating up on yourself and dampening your motivation. This is one of the areas where coaching can be helpful. Setting attainable goals and creating plans for learning new patterns and trading strategies can fuel optimism, determination, and focus.

6) Control the Budget – It very much helps to have a cash cushion to weather these rainy day periods. Living within one’s means also helps greatly. I’ve generally found that traders can adapt to shifting markets if they have enough time to make the transition. It’s when the pressures of bringing in money month to month add to the performance pressures of a drawdown period that turnarounds become difficult to sustain.

Perhaps the best advice, however, is preventive. Identify slumps early and control losses before they get out of hand. Perform regular inventories of your winning and losing trades, so that you’re always on top of what’s working for you and minimizing what’s hurting performance. During your best times, remember that markets always change and keep powder dry to weather the inevitable lean times. Ironically, the best way to master declines in trading performance is to embrace them early and turn them into prods for learning and development.

Tags: attainable goals, budget, cash cushion, common denominators, execution, frantic effort, harm principle, interference, market changes, motivation, new patterns, optimism, periods, rainy day, risk management, sports franchises, traction, trades, trading strategies, tweaking

Hurdle for Dow -10377 ,Nasdaq Composite -2216

admin — Fri, 03 Sep 2010 09:36:36 +0000

About US Indices ,In my last update on 26th August

I had written

Just click here

Above 1089……………….No worry @ all.

Will zoom to kiss 1106–1111 level very soon !!

Support at 1078-1075 level.

Just watch 10377 level very carefully.

Crossover and close above this level will take to 10524-10573 level.

Just watch 2216 level.

Crossover and close above this level will create more buying.

Once crosses then watch explosive rally.

Nonstop rally upto 2255-2268 not ruled out.

Do u want to Know Trend of Any Stock traded at US Market.

Just send me mail

anirudhsethireport@yahoo.com

Updated at 15:03/3rd Sept/Baroda/India

Tags: $SPX 500, Anirudh Sethi, Baroda, dow jones, india, Nasdaq Composite

Economic Data Schedule for September 3 2010

admin — Fri, 03 Sep 2010 08:57:50 +0000

8:30 am – US August Unemployment Rate, Nonfarm Payrolls, Manufacturing Payrolls, Private Payrolls, Average Hourly Earnings

10:00 am – US August ISM Non-Manufacturing

Tags: average hourly earnings, economic data, ism, unemployment rate

Trading Psychology Observations

admin — Fri, 03 Sep 2010 08:03:24 +0000

-From working with developing traders, I’d say that 90% don’t/can’t sustain the process of keeping a substantive journal. Among the group that does journal, well over 90% of the entries are about themselves and their P/L. I almost never see journal entries devoted to figuring out markets.

-A sizable proportion of traders who have been having problems are trading methods and patterns that used to work, but are no longer operative. The inability to change with changing markets affects traders intraday (when volume/volatility/trend patterns shift) and over longer time frames (when intermarket patterns shift).

-Some traders habitually look for tops in a rising market and bottoms in a falling one. There’s much to be said for countertrend methods, but not when the need to be right exceeds the need to make money.

-An underrated element in trading success is mental flexibility: the ability to shift views and perceptions as new data enter the marketplace. It takes a certain lack of ego to form a strong view and then modify it in the face of new evidence.

-Many traders fail because they’re focused on what the market *should* be doing, rather than on what it *is* doing. The stock market leads, not follows, economic fundamentals. Some of the best investment opportunities occur when markets are looking past news, positive or negative.

Tags: bottoms, economic fundamentals, ego, element, intraday, investment opportunities, journal entries, marketplace, mental flexibility, need to make money, new evidence, perceptions, psychology, sizable proportion, stock market, time frames, tops, volatility

Protected: Pepper ,Jeera ,Turmeric -Down !But MAIZE looking fiery

admin — Fri, 03 Sep 2010 04:13:56 +0000

No tags for this post.

Goals for Consistency

admin — Fri, 03 Sep 2010 04:07:10 +0000

Consistency, consistency, this is one of the most important quality I wanna achieve. Here I have a set of goals pertaining to consistency. I got the material from an article sometimes ago. I have no idea who is the author. Anyway, here is the abstract and I have added my own ideas.
I want to consistently..

Visualize myself in tune with the market

Seeing oneself in tune with the market and apart of the ebb and flow. Great athletes constantly visualize themselves performing at their peak. In trading, which is purely a mental game, is just as incumbent upon us to do this as well and even more often.

Be as professional as possible.

Trading is not a pastime activity. It has to be treated seriouly , and professionally. We have to do the best job ,possible leaving no regrets at the end of the day.

Record my trades for review and analysis

By recording our trades and thoughts, we allow ourselves to internalize the markets actions even more and objectively analyze our own actions.

Look to be the agressor and proactive

Looking for setups and taking a dynamic approach to the market is critical in succedding. Those that can consistently seek out great opportunities and then execute on them are usually rewarded.

Following my trading plan

Having a plan is important. Being able to execute the plan is the key to success. Stick to it.

Be patient and hit the same high quality spots

By executing on the same game plan, we remove a great deal of the emotional turmoil that trading can bring.

At last, consistency in our approach leads to consistency in our profits!

Tags: agressor, consistency, dynamic approach, ebb and flow, emotional turmoil, high quality, job, mental game, no regrets, pastime, proactive, profits, same game, trades

Guesstimates on 03rd September’10

admin — Fri, 03 Sep 2010 02:52:35 +0000

“If you’re playing for emotional satisfaction, you’re bound to lose, because what feels good is often the wrong thing to do. Richard Dennis used to say, somewhat facetiously, “If it feels good, don’t do it.” In fact, one rule we taught the Turtles was: When all the criteria are in balance, do the thing you least want to do. You have to decide early on whether you’re playing for the fun or for the success. Whether you measure it in money or in some other way, to win at trading you have to be playing for the success.”

PATIENCE.This is definitely a virtue worth developing. Sometimes the market is going up in the right direction, but is not going as fast upwards as you would like.
Be patient and use a “stop loss” to lock in those profits. However small they may be.
Also don’t always be in a hurry to “buy that next share” just because you have that money burning a hole in your pocket.
Do your homework and then you have chosen the right share for the right reasons and not just because it looked good.

Yesterday ,Our Stocks :TATA MOTORS ,Welspun Guj & SUGAR Stocks !!

101% Holding Long :MLL ,CESC ,SCI ,T.Motors,R.Capital

Two ,Three Jokers had commented on SUZLON :These Idiots had written that my Target was of Rs.32.And from 46 it went upto 53 ………!

(From 58….crashed to 46 & 101% still looking weak )

These Manipulation/Rumours are Best Strategy for selling these type of stocks.

I think may flare upto 55-56 level ,Go short @ Higher levels.Somebody was buying from last 3 days……spreaded RUMOUR………Big Brother will buy stake and stock blasted.

Just THINK it over :

When ICICI Falls/Crashed due to Rumour….These People they do Police complain and start doing Bla Bla immdly on TV channels…….

But ,When stock zooms with Rumour…No Managment….Nothing doing ??

(Mera Bharat Mahan………………..)

Traders………..Grab this stock for 2-3 sessions !

Just watch 757.50 level !!

-Once crosses this level with volumes……Watch Explosive rally-

Nonstop rally upto 777—782 on card !!

In Panic ,In Decline…………..Buy it and Forget.

We THINK ……Stock will cross 796—800+ level in hrs only.

-Really ,Don’t know…What is cooking….But 101% Kuch ho raha hai -

If slides by Rs.10-15…No worry @ all.

No need to buy Big qty…..JUST Buy small qty and enjoy Blast of your life !!

Short Term :Spike on card.

Above 764………………Catch it !!

Stock will zoom to kiss 774-777 & there after more explosion !!

Ascending Triangle :Height Rs.338

Above 3019……………Catch it !

Stock will zoom to kiss 3048-3058 in minutes only.

Very soon will kiss 3090 level too.

Suppose closes above 3090 level with volumes then be ready for explosive move of 338 points.

Stock will zoom upto 3400-3425+ level !!

Catch it @ opening bell !!

Yesterday closed @ 789

Stock will zoom to kiss 801–808 level in minutes only

There after ????Nonstop rally upto 830-837 level.

(More Details to our Subscribers about this stock )

AXIS ,ADITYA BIRLA NUVO ,ASIAN PAINTS

Yes ,In all Three Stocks our Subscribers are Long !!

Not ………Today ,But just more explosion very sooooon in these stocks.

I will Update more Stocks ,Intraday Trend to our Subscribers

Updated at 8:58/3rd Sept/Baroda

Tags: burning a hole, emotional satisfaction, homework, hurry, money, patience, profits, richard dennis, right direction, stop loss, turtles, virtue

Trading Strategy for Nifty Future-03rd September’10

admin — Fri, 03 Sep 2010 02:45:52 +0000

If you have a positive expectancy trading system, the only factors that determine how much money you will make per year are the number of trades the system generates, how much capital you allocate to the system, and how accurately you implement the trading signals. If you do not know whether your trading system is positive expectancy then why are you trading it? Expectancy is calculated using the profit or loss on each trade (net of trading implementation
costs) divided by the initial risk (using your stop loss) and then taking the average of this number of a series of trades. Systems that have positive expectancy will make money on average and those with negative expectancy will lose money.

Successful traders only trade systems where the odds of success are in their favor (i.e. the system is positive expectancy) so they know that making money is the result of accurately implementing the system and not just pure luck.

Major Hurdle at 5566

Three Consecutive close above this level+Weekly close (Must ) then expect allround unexpected buying and next target with No if and but :Kissing all time high !!

My Target 6336-6593

If able to fullfill my Condition then in next 2 months ….will see UNEXPECTED level.

(From Last 2 months writing same level and see My Sensex level too )

Two days back written and indicated NF will take Support at 5364-5352 level….Made low of 5356 & taken U-turn !

From 5368 level………………….Our Subscribers are Long and Yesterday sold 75 % postion around 5500 level !

Levels………Not to be changed everyday !!

Once crosses 5509 with volumes and stays above this level for 5-10 minutes….then nonstop rally upto 5543——–5556 level.

Support exist at 5470—5462 level.

15 Minutes chart indicates ………Upmove will continue upto 10:30 maximum

There after ……………Heavy Volatile move …Your Broker will mint money !

From 13:30 hrs………….till end session ,One side move !!

Above 5509…………….will try to kiss 5543-5556.Best Strategy ,Go short around 5530-5540……..& Your Stoploss will be 5556.So Risk will be Rs.10-15 only.

(Don’t trade blindly & Never Bark )

Updated at 8:14/3rd Sept/BARODA

Tags: 15 minutes, amp, how much money, hurdle, implementation costs, initial risk, making money, mint money, odds, postion, rally, stop loss, subscribers, successful traders, target, trades, u turn, unexpected level

Why Market Is Now More Certain Than Ever That Greece Will Default, And A European Funding Update

admin — Fri, 03 Sep 2010 02:28:40 +0000

One of the stealthier developments over the past months has been the ever wider creep in Greek CDS, especially in the longer-dated part of the curve. In fact, everything to the right of the 3 Year point is now wider than it was both on the eve of the Greek semi-default, and just after the announcement of the European Stabilization Mechanism (ESM). How is it that with so much firepower, better known as free money, thrown at the problem, have spreads not declined? The CFR provides one interpretation, which speculates that once European banks find a firmer footing, that Greece, with the blessing of Europe proper, will be allowed to finally sever its mutated umbilical cord, and default. The catalyst would be Greece getting its primary deficit under control, at which point ongoing bad debt funding would no longer be necessary. Of course, this hypothesis is based on two very critical assumptions: European banks, especially in the periphery, as the second attached study from Goldman indicates, are still locked out. To think that Europe will be able to get to an equal footing for all countries seems like some wishful thinking at this point, especially if the market does consider the implications of what a Greek default will do to peripheral banking. Additionally, the ramifications to the euro in the case of a default will be dire, although that may be precisely what Europe is after all alone. Regardless, that is how the CFR sees things, rightly or wrongly. Keep an eye on Greek spreads in the coming weeks to see if the theory is validated.

From the CFR:

The difference between Greek and German government bond yields can be used to estimate the market’s view of the likelihood of a Greek default. The chart above shows these probabilities over different time frames on three different dates. On April 30th, no European plan was yet in place to address the ballooning Greek debt, and default was considered a real possibility in the short term. On May 11th, just after the European Stabilization Mechanism (ESM) was announced, markets sharply cut their view on the odds of default across all time horizons. However, the market’s analysis of the ESM has become much more nuanced since then. On September 1st, the market’s view of the probability of default within two years was lower than before the ESM was announced, but higher over longer time frames.

Greece will happily borrow from the ESM to avoid having to close its primary deficit (that is, excluding interest payments) too rapidly. Yet if Greece is successful in eliminating its primary deficit, its temptation to default will actually grow, as it can wipe out huge amounts of accumulated debt without any longer needing the financial markets to fund current expenditures. If faced with the choice between paying Greek debts and letting Greece default, its northern neighbors may, once their banks are on more solid footing, find it more attractive simply to let Greece default. This is the story line that the markets are now pricing into government bond spreads.

And for those seeking an update on European funding, here is Goldman with: “ECB’s bank liquidity stays on max, periphery needs it most.”

Goldman Funding Update

Tags: bond yields, cfr, critical assumptions, different time, equal footing, european banks, firepower, free money, german government, goldman, government bond, greek cds, periphery, probabilities, ramifications, stabil, time frames, umbilical cord, wishful thinking