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BRICS and the coming crash

22 August 2014 - 6:52 am

On 15 July 2014, the five BRICS countries – Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa – agreed at their sixth summit meeting in Fortaleza, Brazil, to set up a New Development Bank (NDB) and a Contingency Reserve Arrangement (CRA). The NDB is expected to fund development projects as does the World Bank and the CRA is to address balance of payments difficulties on the lines of the International Monetary Fund. Although the summit’s decisions cover political and other issues, this article limits itself to discussing the viability and significance of the proposed NDB and CRA.

International print media has dwelt on the perceived incompatible nature of the BRICS grouping. The sceptical tone of the reporting reflects discomfort with India, Brazil and South Africa teaming up with Russia and China to set upmultilateral financial institutions (MFIs). Separately, developed countries have persistently delayed reducing their equity-quotas in existing MFIs to reflect the growing economic weight of larger developing economies. Now that the volumes of capital flows to developing countries from private sources have overwhelmed those from MFIs, it could be argued that MFIs have lost their earlier significance. On balance, MFIs retain their importance because they provide much longer maturity and lower cost loans.

A number of preparatory steps will be needed to set up the NDB and the CRA. For instance, the Articles of Agreement and the conditions and pricing of loans have to be agreed upon. The NDB and the CRA should begin by limiting their lending activities to BRICS members backed by central-government guarantees as is the case with World Bank loans. However, unlike the World Bank, the NDB could fund its loans by borrowing from member governments. The five BRICS countries have invested significant proportions of their foreign-exchange (forex) reserves in debt securities of G7 governments. Ironically, never in recorded history have so many of the world’s poor lent so much to the rich. >> Read More


Opaque related-party transactions is the most important corporate governance issue in promoter-managed firms, according to a poll conducted by proxy advisory firm IiAS.

The new regulations regarding related-party transactions (RPT) apply only to the listed company and not to its unlisted subsidiary, and companies seem to have begun exploiting this operational flexibility. “Leaving unlisted subsidiaries out of the regulatory ambit may be seen as providing managements with some operational flexibility. But companies seem to misuse the provisions to circumvent the intent of the regulation. This will only invite the ire of both investors and regulators. In which case, companies must be prepared to pay the price of tighter regulations,” said IiAS.

One such example is Cairn India’s recent announcement of extending a $1.25-billion loan to a Vedanta Group company. A two-year agreement was signed in the first quarter of 2014-15, and $800 million was disbursed. This disclosure was made on an earnings call — no mention of this in the quarter results nor in company presentations, with the company arguing that it need not be. >> Read More


The amount of bad loans in India’s banking system may have been understated and could far exceed published estimates if banks’ exposure to completed power projects that are yet to start production is taken into account. Lack of fuel supplies and absence of power purchase agreements with state-run utilities have been blamed for stranded power plants. Some project developers may not be commissioning constructed power plants because once they start production, they would have to start repaying their creditors. For their part, banks and financial institutions that have funded these projects are not insisting that the developers set a date for the start of commercial operations. In the event that the developers default, the loans would be counted as non-performing assets (NPAs), requiring the lenders to make additional provisions, adding to the pile-up of bad loans and denting their profitability. “Many projects which are otherwise technically ready are not declaring commercial operation date (COD) because of this lack of power purchase agreement and fuel supply agreement (FSA). It is typical of loan agreements that loan servicing starts after the project achieves COD,” said Debasish Mishra, senior director of consulting at Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu India Pvt. Ltd. Of 69,842 megawatts’ (MW) power projects stranded in the country at various stages of development, capacity totalling 45,634MW is stalled because of insufficient coal supply. Construction has been completed on projects with a capacity to generate around 28,000MW, but these haven’t been commissioned yet. Forty listed Indian banks had gross NPAs of Rs.2.52 trillion as of 30 June, up 21% from Rs.2.08 trillion a year ago, as two years of sub-5% economic growth, tepid consumer demand and projects stuck because of delayed government approvals and land acquisition crimped corporate cash flows, hurting their ability to repay loans. Banks’ exposure to the capital-intensive power sector is estimated at Rs.3 trillion, more than the total amount of gross NPAs in the banking system. A top executive at India’s largest power sector lender said delaying commercial operations to avoid defaults was a common practice in the power sector.

>> Read More


Malaysia-based AirAsia’s net income for April-June grew 529% year-on-year to 367 million ringgit ($116 million) on gains from foreign borrowings. But the regional budget airline’s net operating profit for the quarter fell 52% to 71 million ringgit, mainly due to losses at its associated companies.

     AirAsia said lower passenger travel due to political turmoil in Thailand was a key reason for the 14% drop in average fares that led to a net loss of 13.8 million ringgit for Thai AirAsia. While for Indonesia AirAsia, the weakening rupiah and enlarged dollar-denominated costs resulted a net loss of 340 billion rupiah ($29 million).

     Despite the poor performance, group CEO Tony Fernandes said the losses at these affiliates would be short lived as they were due to external factors. “Our average fare is on a positive upward trend,” he said in a statement Wednesday. “Capacity addition into the region and Malaysia especially, will be back to a realistic level in the second half of 2014.” 

     Revenue for the quarter was up 5% to 1.31 billion ringgit. The group carried 5.57 million passengers, which was almost unchanged from the year before. The passenger load was in line with the company’s target of 80%. >> Read More


A sharp decline in the outlook for France’s industry suggested that the country will yet again see zero growth this quarter.

Purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data for the manufacturing sector came in much weaker than analysts had expected this August.

Falling 1.3 points to 46.5, the figure remains well below 50, signalling that output in manufacturing is falling, according to Markit data published on Thursday.

The overall French PMI, including a “modest expansion” in the country’s dominant services sector, “masked the ongoing weakness in manufacturing”, said Jack Kennedy, senior economist at Markit.

That headline reading signalled that France would yet again see zero growth in the three months running to September, “continuing the flat trend seen since the turn of the year”, said Mr Kennedy.

>> Read More



Above is Monthly Chart of US DOLLAR INDEX

Just Need 3 Consecutive close above 82.32+Weekly close………………..Then ??

Watch BLAST upto 83.4525-83.82 level 

Extreme short Term might look Overbought ,But looking very fiery.

More Details to our Subscribers ,Updated at 6:02/22nd August/Baroda/India


Nonstop Rally upto 1171———-1227 is possible.

Technically Yours/ASR TEAM/BARODA

Overnight US Market

22 August 2014 - 5:23 am

The stock rally rolled on Thursday and hit new heights as the S&P 500 shot up to close at a record high and the Dow reclaimed 17,000 for the first time in a month.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 index gained 5.87 points, or 0.3%, to close at an all-time high of 1992.38, according to preliminary calculations, and set an intraday record of 1994.76. That tops the benchmark index’s previous July 24 record close of 1987.98 and intraday high of 1991.39.

The Dow Jones industrial average rose 60.43, or 0.4% to 17,039.56, moving back above the 17,000 level for the first time since late July. This is the fourth straight day of gains for the Dow and S&P.

The Nasdaq composite index added 5.62, or 0.1%, to 4532.10. All three indexes are up six of the last seven trading sessions. >> Read More

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Technically Yours,
Team ASR,
Baroda, India.