Moments ago, after Yellen earlier explained that the Fed may hike rates at any moment, and certainly not only during press-briefing days, she also explicitly, and very unexpectedly, said that the Fed will likely not hike for a “couple” of meetings. And when she was subsequently asked to explain what “a couple” means, she further explained that it means “two.” As a reminder, this comes from a Fed chairwoman who had a trial by fire when, fresh after replacing Bernanke, she locked herself in the “6 month” calendar interval. In other words, she knows not to give the market a timing bogey. And still she did so. Which, quite explicitly, means that anything starting with the 3rd meeting, currently scheduled for April 28-29, 2015, and onward is very fair game and the market will be foolish to expect the Fed not to follow through with this warning, a Fed which is already dangerously close to losing all credibility it has.
And another way of stating it comes from Peter Tchir of Brean Capital. His take:
Looks like the April/May meeting could be the date. 3 reasons:
1) A couple means 2 – just stated
2) then could host a conference call on a non press conference meeting
3) she said, i keep telling the market what we are going to do, i wash my hands of the market if they won’t listen
She also does not get about oil as transitory. She is remaining very consistent. Core is what matters.