Posts Tagged: amp

 

NF-ICONJack Schwager: You have picked a lot of traders in your career. What do you look for when you hire a trader?

Michael Platt: I want market makers, people who know that anything can happen. The type of guy  I don’t want is an analyst who has never traded – the type of person who does a calculation on a computer, figures out where a market should be, puts on a big trade, gets caught up in it, and doesn’t stop out. And the market is always wrong; he’s not. Market makers know that the market is always right. You are wrong if you are losing money for any reason at all. Market makers have that drilled into their head. They know value is irrelevant in times of market stress; it’s all about positions. They understand the markets will trade against positions. They get it. It is built into their books. It colors the way they think. I look for the type of guy in London who gets up at seven o’clock on Sunday morning when his kids are still in bed, and logs onto a poker site so that he can pick off the U.S. drunks coming home on Saturday night. I hired a guy like that. He usually clears 5 or 10 grand every Sunday morning before breakfast taking out the drunks playing poker because they’re not very good at it, but their confidence has gone up a lot. That’s the type of guy you want – someone who understands an edge. Analysts, on the other hand, don’t think about anything else other than how smart they are.

Wednesday18NovemberNF-1903Last Close : 6547

Above is Daily Chart of Nifty Future

We need Three (3 ) Consecutive close above 6593 +Weekly close will create Fresh Buying Wave

Next Target : 7363-7720 level.

11th Week (including this week )…………will see Unexpected level in Nifty Future

-Yesterday after kissing 6602.80 it crashed Intraday to 6522 level !!

Now

Yesterday’s low very Crucial for Traders.

Decisive Break with volumes below 6524 level and stays below for 15-20 minutes ,We see PANIC upto 

6498——————-6489 level.

& There after more Panic upto 6463—6454 is possible.

Yesterday’s High Crucial Hurdle for Traders ,Crossover and stays above 6602 level with  volumes will take to 6635 level.

Laxman Rekha for Traders at 6644 level.

Anything is possible-ASR

Nifty Future will it kiss 6650 First…………………or Will it tumble to kiss  6450————–6410 level ??

Again Writing :Buy 6700-6800 put and Forget.Buy 6400 Put too.

R-TRENDLINE

Connecting : 6239——————————6480 …………….Fallen back from 6603 level !

This will act as Crucial Hurdle ,Yes Long Term Formation of Inverse Head & Shoulder formation on Weekly CHART

Updated at 7:54/14th March/Baroda/India

 

Perhaps it was his comments today that “a construction boom is coming… tune out the noise and enjoy the bull market” due to lower oil costs and improving weather; but it appears JPMorgan and the permabull are about to part company after 15 years:

  • *JPMORGAN U.S. CHIEF EQUITY STRATEGIST THOMAS LEE DEPARTS FIRM
  • *JPMORGAN ANNOUNCES LEE’S DEPARTURE IN INTERNAL MEMO

It is unclear if Lee’s next career will be as waterboy for Ben Bernanke on his $250,000/speech global speech tour. What is, however, likely is that in his place JPM will simply unleash an algorithm that keeps raising JPM’s “official” S&P500 price target to 100 points above wherever the S&P may be at any given moment.

Positives & Negatives of this Week

25 January 2014 - 10:16 am
 

Positives:

1. Average gas price in 2013 was a 3-year low.
2. Initial jobless claims come in 4k  lower than expected.
3. Existing home sales (December) rose for the first time in 3 months, making 2013’s total the highest in 7 years.
4. IMF boosts global growth forecasts, showing how shallow positive news was this week.
5. Bad news seems to be bad news again, and good news is good news.  Surely this is positive news.
6. AAII Bulls down to a 2-month low (excessive bullishness is not healthy).
7. MBA said refi’s jumped 9.9%
8. China’s economy grows 7.7% in Q4

Negatives:

1. For the first time in 3 months the S&P 500 and Dow both close below their 50-day moving averages.
2. HSBC’s China Manufacturing PMI came in at 49.6 (contraction) which is its lowest reading since July, this sent S&P futures deep into the red and triggered the 2 day sell-off.
3. US Existing Home Sales in December totaled 4.87mm annualized, 60k less than expected.
4. It looks like January will be the first red month since August.
5. Argentina’s peso suffered its worst day in 12 years, emerging markets got smacked.

 
  • Compiled by China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing (CFLP) and China Logistics Information Centre (CLIC), based on data collected by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
  • Li & Fung Research Centre is responsible for drafting and disseminating the English PMI report.

The HSBC Manufacturing PMI follows tomorrow (January 2, 0145GMT).

All major Asian FX trading centres are closed today on New Year’s Day for a holiday. As is Europe, the UK and the US.

 

DIWALI-WISH FROM ASR TEAM

 

Traders ,Investors & Readers  :

May the divine light of Diwali diyas spread peace, prosperity, pleasure & positivity around you and your family.

Here’s wishing you a very Happy Deepavali!a2342e10

Just Pray Laxmi this Evening Fii’s Money flow should Continue in Indian Market.And take blessing that will not worry about Economy ,Inflation ,Corporate Results ,Fundamentals ,Growth……..Just will think about Fii’s flow ,USD movement !

Technically Yours/ASR TEAM/BARODA/INDIA

 

Procter & Gamble, the world’s largest advertiser, has filed patents for a new plastic manufacturing process that will allow it to make packages with material that is 75% thinner than what it’s using now, Ad Age reports.

 According to Ad Age, the new technology is being developed by P&G’s Imflux subsidiary and could save the consumer goods giant $1 billion a year by allowing it to use less plastic and different raw materials in its packaging.

It will also allow Procter & Gamble, and any company that contracts to use its new technology, to make caps and closures out of the same material as the rest of the package. According to Ad Age, the patents could also be used in toys, medical devices, and automobiles, among other places. >> Read More

Voters get right to reject

27 September 2013 - 17:22 pm
 

RIGHT TO REJECTToday while granting WRIT PETITION (CIVIL) NO. 161 OF 2004, moved by People’s Union for Civil Liberties & anothers, the Supreme Court of India has considered a dire need of negative voting in the present scenario of our Country and has confirmed a Right to Reject all the candidates while excercise his voting rights through its landmark Judgment. The Apex Court has concluded that ” Democracy being the basic feature of our constitutional set up, there can be no two opinions that free and fair elections would alone guarantee the growth of a healthy democracy in the country. The ‘Fair’ denotes equal opportunity to all people. Universal adult suffrage conferred on the citizens of India by the Constitution has made it possible for these millions of individual voters to go to the polls and thus participate in the governance of our country. For democracy to survive, it is essential that the best available men should be chosen as people’s representatives for proper governance of the country. This can be best achieved through men of high moral and ethical values, who win the elections on a positive vote. Thus in a vibrant democracy, the voter must be given an opportunity to choose none of the above (NOTA) button, which will indeed compel the political parties to nominate a sound candidate. This situation palpably tells us the dire need of negative voting. No doubt, the right to vote is a statutory right but it is equally vital to recollect that this statutory right is the essence of democracy. Without this, democracy will fail to thrive. >> Read More

 

ASR-OMGA lot has been written about concentration of system credit to few large corporate/ Infra cos. In this detailed report, we identify ~US$50bn of power SPVs and risky corporate groups which “is or could get stressed” and dig a lot deeper into bank-wise exposure in these potential stress assets. (All from Publicly available sources – The caveat here is that this is based on bank charges created and actual exposures may marginally differ).

 ICICI/Axis – Large exposures but better placed than PSUs: Exposure in these ~US$50bn assets is ~28% of Networth (NW) for ICICI and ~35% for Axis lower than PSU banks (~40-60% of NW)Risky power exposure is marginally lower than PSUs at 20- 25% of NW but ex-Infra risky corporate exposure is significantly lower at <5-10% of NW v/s 10-30% of NW for PSU banks. While Axis bank’s exposure is lot more dispersed, ICICI’s exposure is lot more concentrated in few groups like JPA/Essar/Adani but indicates better underwriting with lower share of risky power exposure.

 Retail and Regional banks – Reaffirms their almost negligible exposure: Not only all retail banks (HDFCB/Kotak/IIB) but even regional banks (Federal/SIB/KVB/CUB) have almost negligible exposure in these assets (<5-10% of NW v/s 20-30% for ICICI/Axis), with J&K bank being the only exception.

 Large PSUs– PNB/Canara worst, surprisingly BOI/Union better than SBI/BOB : PNB is omnipresent in most risky assets that we have analysed followed by Canara bank and these assets constitute 55-70% of their NW. BOI/Union’s exposure is surprisingly lower than SBI/BOB(considered relatively safer). For SBI, names in power book is less risky v/s peers but is as risky as peers in the large corporate book. BOB’s claim of small ticket sizes seems right for power but ticket sizes is large in the ex-Infra book.

 Medium and Smaller PSUs: Exposure for smaller PSUs are similar to larger peers at ~30-40% of NW in these assets. United/Uco/IOB are worse off where as Indian/Dena seem better off on exposures relating to these assets.

 Infra NBFCs/IDBI: IDBI, like PNB, is omnipresent in most risky names constituting ~90% of their NW. For IDFC, these assets constitute ~35% of NW largely linked to gas assets. PFC/REC’s claims of low gas exposure seems right but their exposure to risky coal assets is very high at 80-90% of their NW.

 

Mohnish Pabrai’s long-only equity fund has returned a cumulative 517% net to investors vs. 43% for the S&P 500 Index since inception in 2000.  That’s outperformance of 474 percentage points or 1103 percent. [Disclosure: I and/or some of my clients are long Pabrai's fund or specific holdings within his fund.]

To anticipate your next question: Yes, his fund is closed to new investors.  But there is still hope.  Read on — sadist that I am, I put the answer at the end

Pabrai is a classic value investor in the tradition of Warren Buffett, Charlie Munger, Seth Klarman and Joel Greenblat. I recently had an opportunity to hear him talk and thought I’d pass along some of my bright yellow highlighting.

How to start investing >> Read More

 

CDR meeting: No sign of improvement,restructuring proposals remain high Event

 We met with the head of Corporate Debt Restructuring (CDR) to get a brief update on the restructuring pipeline. The CDR Head (Head of the Empowered Group Cell of CDR) admitted that stress in the system is not moderating and restructuring proposals are unlikely to ease meaningfully in the near term.

Impact

 Restructuring to continue at a furious pace: Many sectors of the economy are witnessing cyclical pressure and there are policy / supply linkage related issues in infrastructure. Many companies are having problems as they have diversified into real estate. SEBs and other government agencies are delaying payments, which is having a cascading effect on corporate payments to banks and their suppliers. This is likely to keep stress in the system at an elevated level. The CDR restructuring pipeline remains high. Around 14 cases were referred to the CDR cell in the first two months of 2Q14, amounting to ~Rs220bn (1Q14 – Rs394bn and Rs311bn in 4Q13). Note that this doesn’t include bilateral restructuring that happens between a bank and corporate.

The CDR restructuring comprised only 30% of the overall restructuring done in the last 2 years (Fig 7).

 Several sectors under stress – key being metals and infrastructure:

Currently the sectors which are approaching the CDR include infrastructure

(especially power and roads), construction and small/mid size iron & steel companies. On an outstanding basis (Jun’13), sectors such as Iron & steel (21%), Infrastructure (14%), Textiles (8%) and construction (5.7%) account for the majority of CDR cases. >> Read More

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Technically Yours,
Team ASR,
Baroda, India.