03 November 2013 - 12:33 pm
Traders ,Investors & Readers :
May the divine light of Diwali diyas spread peace, prosperity, pleasure & positivity around you and your family.
Here’s wishing you a very Happy Deepavali!
Just Pray Laxmi this Evening Fii’s Money flow should Continue in Indian Market.And take blessing that will not worry about Economy ,Inflation ,Corporate Results ,Fundamentals ,Growth……..Just will think about Fii’s flow ,USD movement !
Technically Yours/ASR TEAM/BARODA/INDIA
22 October 2013 - 0:21 am
Procter & Gamble, the world’s largest advertiser, has filed patents for a new plastic manufacturing process that will allow it to make packages with material that is 75% thinner than what it’s using now, Ad Age reports.
According to Ad Age, the new technology is being developed by P&G’s Imflux subsidiary and could save the consumer goods giant $1 billion a year by allowing it to use less plastic and different raw materials in its packaging.
It will also allow Procter & Gamble, and any company that contracts to use its new technology, to make caps and closures out of the same material as the rest of the package. According to Ad Age, the patents could also be used in toys, medical devices, and automobiles, among other places. >> Read More
27 September 2013 - 17:22 pm
Today while granting WRIT PETITION (CIVIL) NO. 161 OF 2004, moved by People’s Union for Civil Liberties & anothers, the Supreme Court of India has considered a dire need of negative voting in the present scenario of our Country and has confirmed a Right to Reject all the candidates while excercise his voting rights through its landmark Judgment. The Apex Court has concluded that ” Democracy being the basic feature of our constitutional set up, there can be no two opinions that free and fair elections would alone guarantee the growth of a healthy democracy in the country. The ‘Fair’ denotes equal opportunity to all people. Universal adult suffrage conferred on the citizens of India by the Constitution has made it possible for these millions of individual voters to go to the polls and thus participate in the governance of our country. For democracy to survive, it is essential that the best available men should be chosen as people’s representatives for proper governance of the country. This can be best achieved through men of high moral and ethical values, who win the elections on a positive vote. Thus in a vibrant democracy, the voter must be given an opportunity to choose none of the above (NOTA) button, which will indeed compel the political parties to nominate a sound candidate. This situation palpably tells us the dire need of negative voting. No doubt, the right to vote is a statutory right but it is equally vital to recollect that this statutory right is the essence of democracy. Without this, democracy will fail to thrive. >> Read More
25 September 2013 - 14:22 pm
A lot has been written about concentration of system credit to few large corporate/ Infra cos. In this detailed report, we identify ~US$50bn of power SPVs and risky corporate groups which “is or could get stressed” and dig a lot deeper into bank-wise exposure in these potential stress assets. (All from Publicly available sources – The caveat here is that this is based on bank charges created and actual exposures may marginally differ).
ICICI/Axis – Large exposures but better placed than PSUs: Exposure in these ~US$50bn assets is ~28% of Networth (NW) for ICICI and ~35% for Axis lower than PSU banks (~40-60% of NW). Risky power exposure is marginally lower than PSUs at 20- 25% of NW but ex-Infra risky corporate exposure is significantly lower at <5-10% of NW v/s 10-30% of NW for PSU banks. While Axis bank’s exposure is lot more dispersed, ICICI’s exposure is lot more concentrated in few groups like JPA/Essar/Adani but indicates better underwriting with lower share of risky power exposure.
Retail and Regional banks – Reaffirms their almost negligible exposure: Not only all retail banks (HDFCB/Kotak/IIB) but even regional banks (Federal/SIB/KVB/CUB) have almost negligible exposure in these assets (<5-10% of NW v/s 20-30% for ICICI/Axis), with J&K bank being the only exception.
Large PSUs– PNB/Canara worst, surprisingly BOI/Union better than SBI/BOB : PNB is omnipresent in most risky assets that we have analysed followed by Canara bank and these assets constitute 55-70% of their NW. BOI/Union’s exposure is surprisingly lower than SBI/BOB(considered relatively safer). For SBI, names in power book is less risky v/s peers but is as risky as peers in the large corporate book. BOB’s claim of small ticket sizes seems right for power but ticket sizes is large in the ex-Infra book.
Medium and Smaller PSUs: Exposure for smaller PSUs are similar to larger peers at ~30-40% of NW in these assets. United/Uco/IOB are worse off where as Indian/Dena seem better off on exposures relating to these assets.
Infra NBFCs/IDBI: IDBI, like PNB, is omnipresent in most risky names constituting ~90% of their NW. For IDFC, these assets constitute ~35% of NW largely linked to gas assets. PFC/REC’s claims of low gas exposure seems right but their exposure to risky coal assets is very high at 80-90% of their NW.
25 September 2013 - 11:12 am
Mohnish Pabrai’s long-only equity fund has returned a cumulative 517% net to investors vs. 43% for the S&P 500 Index since inception in 2000. That’s outperformance of 474 percentage points or 1103 percent. [Disclosure: I and/or some of my clients are long Pabrai's fund or specific holdings within his fund.]
To anticipate your next question: Yes, his fund is closed to new investors. But there is still hope. Read on — sadist that I am, I put the answer at the end
Pabrai is a classic value investor in the tradition of Warren Buffett, Charlie Munger, Seth Klarman and Joel Greenblat. I recently had an opportunity to hear him talk and thought I’d pass along some of my bright yellow highlighting.
How to start investing >> Read More
25 September 2013 - 9:25 am
CDR meeting: No sign of improvement,restructuring proposals remain high Event
We met with the head of Corporate Debt Restructuring (CDR) to get a brief update on the restructuring pipeline. The CDR Head (Head of the Empowered Group Cell of CDR) admitted that stress in the system is not moderating and restructuring proposals are unlikely to ease meaningfully in the near term.
Restructuring to continue at a furious pace: Many sectors of the economy are witnessing cyclical pressure and there are policy / supply linkage related issues in infrastructure. Many companies are having problems as they have diversified into real estate. SEBs and other government agencies are delaying payments, which is having a cascading effect on corporate payments to banks and their suppliers. This is likely to keep stress in the system at an elevated level. The CDR restructuring pipeline remains high. Around 14 cases were referred to the CDR cell in the first two months of 2Q14, amounting to ~Rs220bn (1Q14 – Rs394bn and Rs311bn in 4Q13). Note that this doesn’t include bilateral restructuring that happens between a bank and corporate.
The CDR restructuring comprised only 30% of the overall restructuring done in the last 2 years (Fig 7).
Several sectors under stress – key being metals and infrastructure:
Currently the sectors which are approaching the CDR include infrastructure
(especially power and roads), construction and small/mid size iron & steel companies. On an outstanding basis (Jun’13), sectors such as Iron & steel (21%), Infrastructure (14%), Textiles (8%) and construction (5.7%) account for the majority of CDR cases. >> Read More
24 September 2013 - 15:35 pm
A guy brings his best buddy home for dinner. His wife screams, “You asshole! My hair & makeup aren’t done, the house is a mess, the dishes aren’t done, I’m still in my pajamas and I can’t be bothered with cooking tonight! Why the fuck did you bring him home?”
“Cause he’s thinking of getting married.”
24 September 2013 - 13:26 pm
Trade the market, not the money
• Always trade value, never trade price
• The answer to the question, “What’s the trend?” is the question, “What’s your timeframe?”
• Never allow a statistically significant unrealized gain to turn into a statistically significant realized loss (ATR)
• Don’t tug at green shoots
• When there’s nothing to do, do nothing
• Stop adjustments can only be used to reduce risk, not increase it.
• There are only two kinds of losses: big losses and small losses, given these choices – always choose small losses.
• Don’t Anticipate, Just Participate
• Buy the strongest, sell the weakest (RSI)
• Sideways markets eventually resolve themselves into trending markets and vice versa
• Stagger entries & exits – Regret Minimization techniques
• Look for low risk, high reward, high probability setups
• Correlations are for defense, not offense
• Drawdowns are for underleveraged trading and research
• Develop systems based on the kinds of “pain” (weaknesses) endured when they aren’t working or you’ll abandon them during drawdowns.
• Be disciplined in risk management & flexible in perceiving market behavior
24 September 2013 - 9:09 am
Develop systems based on the kinds of “pain” (weaknesses) endured when they aren’t working or you’ll abandon them during drawdowns.
• Be disciplined in risk management & flexible in perceiving market behavior
Just have a eye on 2478 level……………….Decisive Break with volumes and stays below will take to 2445—–2433 level
in PANIC !
Major Support @ 2427 level.Two Consecutive close below this level will take to 2308————2269 level !!
Will Try to kiss 1399————————1387 in panic.
Now if breaks 1387 with volumes and stays below for 20 minutes then ???
Target :1349——————————————-1337 is possible !Trade with EYES open !
Below 833 it will favour Bears only !!
We see PANIC upto 792—————-779 level.
Will it halt @ 779 ??
Just Watch :1974 ……………………..Once Breaks with volumes and stays below will kiss 1950 level.
Once Breaks 1950 with volumes and trades for 15-20 minutes then ???
Target :1876——-1852 in hrs only.
-More Stocks ,More News ,Intraday levels to our Subscribers.
Updated at 9:06/24th Sept/Baroda/India
24 September 2013 - 5:59 am
A resurgent housing market has been a pillar of the US economic recovery and Tuesday’s batch of data will offer a look at how this crucial sector is holding up.
Economists will be watching closely to see if rising mortgage rates are having an effect on the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index, which is up 12 per cent on the year.
Wall Street analysts expect that home prices flattened in July, rising by just 0.8 per cent from June.
Ian Shepherdson, chief economist of Pantheon Macroeconomics, suggested that rising mortgage rates are taking their toll on demand:
The surge in mortgage rates since May might also have persuaded sellers to be a bit less ambitious in their pricing.
Corporate results will offer some additional perspective, with KB Home and Lennar, two of the biggest US homebuilders, set to release their third quarter results before the market opens.