Mon, 30th May 2016

Anirudh Sethi Report


Archives of “confidence” Tag

US consumer confidence slides in May

Confirmation that US consumer confidence declined in May.

An index of confidence from Thomson Reuters and the University of Michigan fell to 81.9 from 84.1 in April.

The ebbing in confidence comes despite an acceleration in employment growth in April and a 1.8 per cent jump in the S&P 500 this month.

A measure of Americans’ perceptions of the current economic conditions slipped, while a gauge of the outlook consumers have for the next six months climbed.

The final reading for May compared with a preliminary reading of 81.8.

Understanding the perils of overconfidence (Links )

A thorough explanation of the overconfidence effect. (Wikipedia)

The Art of Thinking Clearly. (Psychology Today)

Examples of overconfidence outside the charts.  (Your Dictionary)

Key concepts of overconfidence. (Albert Phung via Investopedia)

There are three ways overconfidence can make a fool of you. (Christine Riordan via Forbes)

Managing Overconfidence. (Russo and Schoemaker via Sloan Management Review)

Two types of overconfidence. (Synapse Trading)

The dynamics of overconfident stock market forecasters. (Deaves, Luders, and Schroder via ZEW)

Can we use the overconfidence bias to game the system?  (Scott, Stumpp, and Xu via The Journal of Portfolio Management)

Overtrading is a by product of overconfidence. (Irwan Trinugroho via IJBM) and (Barber and Odean via Berkeley)

Do not be overconfident when investing. (Larry Swedroe via CBS Money Watch)

Overconfidence is more prevalent in… men? (Jeff Sommer via NYT)

Some examples of Overconfidence

  • OverConfidenceA person who thinks his sense of direction is much better than it actually is. The person could show his overconfidence by going on a long trip without a map and refusing to ask for directions if he gets lost along the way. 
  • A person who thinks he is much smarter than he actually is. The person could show his overconfidence by not studying for his SATs, ending up with a lower score than he could otherwise have received. 
  • A person who thinks he has a photographic memory and a detailed understanding of a subject. The person could show his overconfidence by deciding not to study for a test that he has to take on the subject, thus doing poorly on the test due to lack of preparation. 
  • A person who thinks he is invaluable to his employer when almost anyone could actually do his job. The person might show his overconfidence by coming in late to work because he thinks he is never going to get fired, or by being overly demanding about getting a raise and threatening to quit if he doesn’t get his way. 
  • A person who thinks his spouse or partner will never ever leave because he or she loves him too much. The person might try to take advantage of the spouse or partner due to the overconfidence, thus driving the spouse away.  Read More 

European confidence dented in April + 102 vs +103 exp

Europe’s economic confidence gauge unexpectedly dipped this month from the three-year high touched in March.

The European Commission’s economic confidence index fell to 102 points in April, down from a revised 102.5 in March and below the 102.9 reading indicated by economists polled by Bloomberg.

The gauge is calculated from sub-indices that measure industrial, service, consumer, construction and retail trade confidence surveys. All the smaller gauges underperformed expectations except consumer confidence.

Earlier today the French consumer confidence index unexpectedly fell to 85 points in April, denying new premier Manuel Valls the boost usually offered to a new face in the Champs Elysees.

Trading Strategy For 19th March’2014.Yesterday’s High & Low Crucial for Traders.NF will it kiss 6650 First or Will Crash to 6450-6410 ?

NF-ICONJack Schwager: You have picked a lot of traders in your career. What do you look for when you hire a trader?

Michael Platt: I want market makers, people who know that anything can happen. The type of guy  I don’t want is an analyst who has never traded – the type of person who does a calculation on a computer, figures out where a market should be, puts on a big trade, gets caught up in it, and doesn’t stop out. And the market is always wrong; he’s not. Market makers know that the market is always right. You are wrong if you are losing money for any reason at all. Market makers have that drilled into their head. They know value is irrelevant in times of market stress; it’s all about positions. They understand the markets will trade against positions. They get it. It is built into their books. It colors the way they think. I look for the type of guy in London who gets up at seven o’clock on Sunday morning when his kids are still in bed, and logs onto a poker site so that he can pick off the U.S. drunks coming home on Saturday night. I hired a guy like that. He usually clears 5 or 10 grand every Sunday morning before breakfast taking out the drunks playing poker because they’re not very good at it, but their confidence has gone up a lot. That’s the type of guy you want – someone who understands an edge. Analysts, on the other hand, don’t think about anything else other than how smart they are.

Wednesday18NovemberNF-1903Last Close : 6547

Above is Daily Chart of Nifty Future

We need Three (3 ) Consecutive close above 6593 +Weekly close will create Fresh Buying Wave

Next Target : 7363-7720 level.

11th Week (including this week )…………will see Unexpected level in Nifty Future

-Yesterday after kissing 6602.80 it crashed Intraday to 6522 level !!


Yesterday’s low very Crucial for Traders.

Decisive Break with volumes below 6524 level and stays below for 15-20 minutes ,We see PANIC upto 

6498——————-6489 level.

& There after more Panic upto 6463—6454 is possible.

Yesterday’s High Crucial Hurdle for Traders ,Crossover and stays above 6602 level with  volumes will take to 6635 level.

Laxman Rekha for Traders at 6644 level.

Anything is possible-ASR

Nifty Future will it kiss 6650 First…………………or Will it tumble to kiss  6450————–6410 level ??

Again Writing :Buy 6700-6800 put and Forget.Buy 6400 Put too.


Connecting : 6239——————————6480 …………….Fallen back from 6603 level !

This will act as Crucial Hurdle ,Yes Long Term Formation of Inverse Head & Shoulder formation on Weekly CHART

Updated at 7:54/14th March/Baroda/India

Reuters Tankan report: Japan manufacturers index +18 in March (unchanged from February)

Reuters Tankan report:

  • Japan manufacturers index +18 in March (unchanged from February, up 1 point from 3 months ago)
  • Japan non-manufacturers index at +31 in March, up 1 point from February, up 6 points from December
  • Japan manufacturers June index seen at +12, non-manufacturers seen at +14
  • There is a Bank of Japan Tankan Survey, and a Reuters Tankan Survey.
  • Both are surveys of manufacturing and service companies designed to assess business conditions in Japan.
  • The BOJ Tankan is conducted quarterly, the Reuters Tankan is monthly.
  • Confidence at Japanese manufacturers held steady in March but is seen weakening over the next three months Read More 

Trading Strategy For 1st Nov ‘2013.Hurdle at 6330–6360…Sell if u can.Laxman Rekha at 6400-6450 level.Buy 6300-6200 Put upto 1PM

NF-ASR-It’s important to have a routine for handling those times when not only your financial capital gets bitten but your emotional capital sinks as well.

1) Reposition:  Whether you are caught in a downturn or short squeeze, removing the position is often the best way to remain objective. So often when people start to see a position run against them they freeze up and start to rely on hope rather than remaining in control of the trade. When I see stocks breaking down or acting poorly, they are sold immediately and I am able to start fresh.

2) Check the Charts and your Bias:  I have written many times before that price action is never wrong. If you are caught on the wrong side of price action it is a must to re-evaluate the charts you are viewing and check any bias you may have. It is imperative to embrace the prevailing direction and avoid seeing what is not there. Having raised cash and avoiding any further significant draw, take a fresh look at the action and once again analyze your position accordingly.

3) Embrace the New Day:  Trading is unique in that each and every day presents a new opportunity. This must be embraced as it is one of the features that makes trading so great. Rather than dwelling on the past, embrace the future. Each and every day presents new opportunities but not unless you are looking for them.

4) Move Slow and Small:  Most people make the mistake in believing that restoring financial capital will improve emotional capital when I would argue it is actually the opposite. One can only trade at peak performance when his emotional tank is filled and confidence is high. Regardless of how long you have been trading there will be times when this tank takes a dip and before moving on to make any new financial progress, it is imperative to restore the emotional side first. The best way to do this is to move very slow and small. Rather than taking full positions, take quarters or even tenths. Paper trade if you need to and analyze results. As time goes on your emotional capital will be restored and you will soon have the confidence to re-enter the game at full speed.

friday-3Last Close :6294


Above is Daily CHART of Nifty FUTURE

November FUTURE closed at 6331 level.

Yesterday ,We had written above 6280 level it will zoom to kiss 6310-6320 level  


Hurdle for Traders at 6320—6340 level.

Maximum it can kiss 6360 level.


Today Again ,We are writing :Rally can take NF to 6400-6450 level……………….(110% it will halt halt halt )

So Maximum 100-150 points from Yesterday’s close.

Channel -Hurdle @ 6440–6450 range.


Now Range will be 6200———6450 level for Nifty Future.

If Inverse Head & Shoulder have to show power then it will stay above 6200 level and will zoom upto 6400-6450 & will again retest this level of 6200 level 

Then Upward Journey will start ,Our Target we told u :7000 in Short Run & By Next Year End we can see 11000 


Yes ,We want NF should kiss 6400-6450 level………………………in this rally and should happen soon

Swing Traders & Trend Followers …………TAKING Risk or making position of 100-150 points ,On Rise …Sell slowly

(Short Term Range for Traders will be 6200—–6450 level )

Will Update More to our Subscribers ,Updated at 8:13/01st Nov/Baroda/India

A triple blow to US consumer confidence in October

It’s something of a triple whammy.

The final reading of US consumer confidence for October from the University of Michigan shows a drop in the overall index to 73.2 from an initial reading of 75.2.

But it’s not the only number that dropped:

  • An index of how consumers’ assess their current position fell to 89.9 from a first reading of 92.8.
  • An index of future expectations was also down, falling to 62.5 from an initial reading of 63.9.

October was scarred by a political fight in Washington over the debt ceiling and the partial shutdown of the US government.

Great -Mark Douglas Trading Quotes

In trading your mind may be the ultimate technical indicator that determines whether you persevere and win in the markets or get broken in half by fear, greed, ego, stress, and uncertainty. No matter whether you are a an investor, retail trader, prop trader, or professional money manger your success will still be determined on the management of your mind. Never underestimate the importance of keeping a cool head in rough times.

Here are ten of the best quotes from Mark Douglas, an author who verbalizes the real nature of trading as well as I have ever seen it captured. If you can absorb these teachings it will help you get through that rough period when you have 10 losing trades in a row or experience a 10% draw down in your trading capital. If you are not matching risk correctly you may have to come back from a complete wipe out of your account like many other have had to do. But do not give up, you can do this if you really want to.

“I know it may sound strange to many readers, but there is an inverse relationship between analysis and trading results. More analysis or being able to make distinctions in the market’s behavior will not produce better trading results. There are many traders who find themselves caught in this exasperating loop, thinking that more or better analysis is going to give them the confidence they need to do what needs to be done to achieve success. It’s what I call a trading paradox that most traders find difficult, if not impossible to reconcile, until they realize you can’t use analysis to overcome fear of being wrong or losing money. It just doesn’t work!”
-Mark Douglas

“There is a random distribution between wins and losses for any given set of variables that defines an edge. In other words, based on the past performance of your edge, you may know that out of the next 20 trades, 12 will be winners and 8 will be losers. What you don’t know is the sequence of wins and losses or how much money the market is going to make available on the winning trades. This truth makes trading a probability or numbers game. When you really believe that trading is simply a probability game, concepts like “right” and “wrong” or “win” and “lose” no longer have the same significance. As a result, your expectations will be in harmony with the possibilities.”
-Mark Douglas Read More