Anirudh Sethi Report

Trading is a crucible of life: it distills, in a matter of minutes, the basic human challenge: the need to judge, plan, and seek values under conditions of risk and uncertainty. In mastering trading, we necessarily face and master ourselves. Very few arenas of life so immediately reward self-development–and punish its absence.

So many life lessons can be culled from trading and the markets:

1) Have a firm stop-loss point for all activities: jobs, relationships, and personal involvements. Successful people are successful because they cut their losing experiences short and ride winning experiences.

2) Diversification works well in life and markets. Multiple, non-correlated sources of fulfillment make it easier to take risks in any one facet of life.

3) In life as in markets, chance truly favors those who are prepared to benefit. Failing to plan truly is planning to fail.

4) Success in trading and life comes from knowing your edge, pressing it when you have the opportunity, and sitting back when that edge is no longer present.

5) Risks and rewards are always proportional. The latter, in life as in markets, requires prudent management of the former.

6) Happiness is the profit we harvest from life. All life’s activities should be periodically reviewed for their return on investment.

7) Embrace change: With volatility comes opportunity, as well as danger.

All trends and cycles come to an end. Who anticipates the future, profits.

9) The worst decisions, in life and markets, come from extremes: overconfidence and a lack of confidence.

10) A formula for success in life and finance: never hold an investment that you would not be willing to purchase afresh today.

Estimates are that 75-95% of all traders lose all their trading capital in the first year, and only about 5-10% of those that get into trading are able to stay profitable on a consistent basis after 5 years. This is not encouraging. However, since the majority of people tend to be overconfident, most believe that they are not going to be among the casualties.

What is behind this overconfidence?

Some of the most highly educated professionals such as doctors, lawyers and engineers who are used to being first in their class–the best of breed in whatever they do– fail miserably as traders and investors. The reason is that the process of trading and investing is completely different from activities and ways of thinking that bring success outside of the markets. Trading is a counterintuitive to what we are taught growing up. As we grow and develop, we acquire levels of control. We learn to control our bodies, movements, environments, who we chose as friends, lovers and mates, our educational goals, where and how we live. We get cozy and comfortable in our little worlds where we make the rules, and live out our lives in accord with them. Yes, there is a lot going on in the world, but it really doesn’t mean all that much unless it affects us directly. When external challenges face us in our personal lives, we take control, problem solve, and get done what needs to be done.

In the markets things are quite different. There is no way to control the market forces. Markets are larger than life, yet they are life. Millions of people from every part of the world are there making decisions that affect you in either a positive or a negative fashion. Millions of nameless and faceless people are trying to take your money before you take theirs. There is no situation in the life of most people that compares with this. That is why successful trading and investing requires one to adopt an entirely new brain-set.

The majority of people are simply not neurologically flexible enough adapt to this new environment. They insist on adapting the markets to their own worldview, and they fail—sometimes miserably so.

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Small losses almost always become larger and larger losses, leading to every manner of emotional distress as you are holding and hoping, or in complete denial that the position could possibly turn against you. Holding and hoping leads to larger losses and more emotional carnage until you are a financial and neuropsychiatric basket case and you just want out at any cost. Desperation, anxiety or depression set in and remind you of every time in your life you were told that you were not good enough, that you would never amount to anything or that you didn’t deserve to win or be successful. You are now in a state where both financial and psychological capital are depleted–all because you didn’t take a small loss.

How do you preserve your financial and psychological capital? You learn to embrace risk by using rigorous risk management techniques. The most important of these are position sizing, stops and money management. You take small losses. You take small losses! You let winning positions run and take profits and trail stops as they are running. Please memorize this until it is burned into the connections in your brain: The single biggest reason for failure as a trader or investor is the inability to take small losses and letting them grow into larger losses.

Losing discipline is not a trading problem; it is the common result of a number of trading-related problems. Here are the most common sources of loss of discipline, culled from my work with traders:

10) Environmental distractions and boredom cause a lack of focus;

9) Fatigue and mental overload create a loss of concentration;

Overconfidence follows a string of successes;

7) Unwillingness to accept losses, leading to alterations of trade plans after the trade has gone into the red;

6) Loss of confidence in one’s trading plan/strategy because it has not been adequately tested and battle-tested;

5) Personality traits that lead to impulsivity and low frustration tolerance in stressful situations;

4) Situational performance pressures, such as trading slumps and increased personal expenses, that change how traders trade (putting P/L ahead of making good trades);

3) Trading positions that are excessive for the account size, created exaggerated P/L swings and emotional reactions;

2) Not having a clearly defined trading plan/strategy in the first place;

1) Trading a time frame, style, or market that does not match your talents, skills, risk tolerance, and personality.

Losing discipline is not a trading problem; it is the common result of a number of trading-related problems. Here are the most common sources of loss of discipline, culled from my work with traders:

15)Lack of discipline includes several lesser items.’ i.e., impatience, need for action, etc. Also, many traders are unable to take a loss and to take that loss quickly.

14)Emotion makes many traders hold a loser too long. Many traders don’t discipline themselves to take small losses and big gains.

13)Often traders have bad timing, and not enough capital to survive the shake out.

12) Many traders can’t (or don’t) take the small losses. They often stick with a loser until it really hurts, then take the larger loss. This is an undisciplined approach. A trader needs to develop and stick to a system.

11)Lack of experience in the market causes many traders to become emotionally and/or financially committed to one trade, and unwilling or unable to take a loss. They may be unable to admit they have made a mistake, or they look at the market on too short a time frame.

10) Environmental distractions and boredom cause a lack of focus;

9) Fatigue and mental overload create a loss of concentration;

8) Overconfidence follows a string of successes;

7) Unwillingness to accept losses, leading to alterations of trade plans after the trade has gone into the red;

6) Loss of confidence in one’s trading plan/strategy because it has not been adequately tested and battle-tested;

5) Personality traits that lead to impulsivity and low frustration tolerance in stressful situations;

4) Situational performance pressures, such as trading slumps and increased personal expenses, that change how traders trade (putting P/L ahead of making good trades);

3) Trading positions that are excessive for the account size, created exaggerated P/L swings and emotional reactions;

2) Not having a clearly defined trading plan/strategy in the first place;

1) Trading a time frame, style, or market that does not match your talents, skills, risk tolerance, and personality.

It is common for traders to complain of a lack of confidence in their trading, but very often it is overconfidence that does them in.  Overconfidence results from a lack of appreciation of the complexity of markets and an underestimation of the challenges of trading them successfully.  In a sense, overconfident traders lack respect for the markets.  They think that reading about a few setups or buying the newest software will prepare them to make money.  Overconfident traders don’t want to work their way up the trading ladder:  they resist the idea that screen time is the best teacher.  They also chafe at the idea of growing their account.  Rather than start with one contract and wait until they’re profitable before trading larger size, they want big positions—and profits—right away. Because they’re so eager to make money—and so sure they can make it—overconfident traders generally trade impulsively.  They won’t wait for the setup to form; they’ll jump the gun—and get whipsawed in the process.  Instead of being patient and waiting for short-term patterns to align with longer-term patterns, they will take every trade, enriching their brokers in the process. Read more…

Factors that can interfere with this active market engagement:

1) Distractions, from phone calls to conversations around you;2) Fatigue, and normal lapses of concentration after long periods of focus;3) Frustration following bad trades, missed trades, and difficult markets; 4) Worries about losses during slumps;
5) Overconfidence following profits during hot periods; 6) Information overload;7) Getting caught in fixed views of markets; Equipment failure;9) Boredom during slow markets;10) Tunnel vision and loss of big picture perspective.

Ultimate Target ,5309-5566 (Complete correction from High of 6336 to 2228 )

Last week already kissed 5303 level.

From Last 4 Days ,Iam writing Go short in Nifty Future with stop of  5317-5327-5367 level.

-Below 5280 ,My lower target were :5212-5189 level.

-On Friday made low of 5236 & closed at 5249

Now ,What to expect from this level of 5249 ?

7DEMA :5235

Break below this level will take to 5121-5098 in panic.

-Suppose breaks 5098 level with volumes then ?

-Hurdles :5270-5274 ,Crossover will take to 5291.(Intraday levels/Reversal Points to our Subscribers only )

Last week written Auto /IT Index looking weak and just see all Stocks in these sectors were in freefall mode.

This week have a cautious approach and exit long position from Bank/Cement Stocks.

Updated at 6:31/11th Jan/Baroda

10) Environmental distractions and boredom cause a lack of focus;

Overconfidence follows a string of successes;

Instead of reacting to market rumors, anecdotes or advice with a healthy dose of  skepticism, many people not only believe, but also act on what they hear, supremely confident that they are able to discern fact from fiction. Thinking that they know more than they do, they express their opinion as fact on subjects they actually know little about. Because admitting you don?t know something is considered a sign of ignorance, people would rather pretend to be confident and live with the consequences of being wrong. Instead of listening, they talk. Instead of learning, they lecture. Instead of waiting patiently, they act speculatively.

1. Overconfidence and optimism

Most of us are way too confident about our ability to foresee the future, and overwhelmingly too optimistic in our forecasts.

This finding holds across all disciplines, for both professionals and non-professionals, with the exceptions of weather forecasters and horse handicappers.

Lesson: Learn not to trust your gut.

2. Hindsight

We consistently exaggerate our prior beliefs about events.

Market forecasters spend a lot of time telling us why the market behaved the way it did. They’re great at telling us we need an umbrella after it starts raining as well, but it doesn’t improve our returns. We’re all useless at remembering what we used to believe.

Lesson: Keep a diary, revisit your thinking constantly.

3. Loss aversion

We hurt more when we sell at a loss than we feel happy when we Read more…