“It is going to happen in a matter of days rather than weeks, Brazil and India can start the move,” said Dipak Dasgupta, a top Indian official.
Mr Dasgputa told Reuters that China, Brazil, India, Turkey, Russia and South Africa have all been squeezed as the US Federal Reserve prepares to tighten monetary policy. Joint action would give emerging markets greater firepower, allowing them to deploy their combined $8.7 trillion (£5.6 trillion) of reserves and crush “speculators”, rather than being picked off one by one.
However, it is unclear whether such action would serve any useful purpose if the real problem is exhaustion of catch-up growth models in these countries, and boom-bust credit cycles. “This could backfire,” said Ian Stannard, of Morgan Stanley. “If they did this, they would have to sell US and European bonds and that would push up yields. It was rising yields that started this process in the first place.”
The side-effect of such intervention would be monetary tightening, pushing countries into deeper trouble. India’s growth fell to 4.4pc in the second quarter, the lowest since the post-Lehman crisis in 2009. This is eroding tax revenues and pushing the budget deficit back over 5pc of GDP, with a ratings downgrade looming. >> Read More