MSCI will on June 20 announce whether it would finally include China’s domestic A-shares in its global indices.
The US index provider last June delayed for a third straight year the A-shares’ inclusion into its benchmark $1.5tn emerging markets stock index, citing regulation worries and accessibility for global investors.
Inclusion on the index would have been a major step forward for Beijing as it attempts to open up its financial markets and attract foreign capital.
Ahead of this year’s decision, China has embarked on a series of new actions aimed at addressing these concerns. Its banking regulator has launched a “regulatory windstorm” while the central bank has made the first move to ease capital controls, providing much needed liquidity to the offshore renminbi market.
Meanwhile, BlackRock has for the first time publicly backed the inclusion of onshore stocks in MSCI’s indices and Chinese officials have even criticised dividend-dodging companies, dubbed “iron cockerels”, and promised extra scrutiny.
We’ve had a good two-way crude oil market since the first of the year which has helped hold crude oil in a relatively narrow range as aggressive traders continue to play the long side, in anticipation of a balance between supply and demand.
This year began with an oversupplied crude oil market, but with a bullish tone set by OPEC when they decided to start reducing output in an effort to trim supply and stabilize prices. On paper, the idea seemed bullish. What they didn’t expect, however, was the surge in U.S. production that skewed their forecasts and timetables for global supply and demand to reach a balance.
For nearly six months, traders have been pelted with stories nearly every day telling them about OPEC supply cuts and increased U.S. production. The stories seem to have neutralized the markets to a point where crude oil prices have become range bound.
In order for a market to become range bound, some major market player has to be selling enough crude oil to stop a rally and some major market player has to be buying enough crude oil to stop the decline.
However, inside the trading range we’ve seen several pockets of volatility and these moves can only be blamed on the speculators and namely, the hedge funds.
If you’ve traded speculative markets, I’m sure you’ve noticed that markets come down faster than they go up. Essentially, this is because speculative buyers tend to be very careful about where they buy or enter the market, but when it’s time to sell, they don’t care what they pay to get out.
Since President Trump was elected – much to the heart-crushing chagrin of the billionaire class in Silicon Valley and its epic funding of Hillary – the big 5 stocks of the Nasdaq (Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft) have gained a stunning $675 billion in market cap.
This pushes them near $3 trillion and well over 10% of the entire US equity market…
For context, Bloomberg notes that is more than the total value of stocks in any single equity market worldwide except the five largest: the U.S., China, Japan, Hong Kong and the U.K.
Apple on Monday landed a $1tn valuation after analysts at Drexel Hamilton boosted their price target on the stock.
Brian J White at Drexel Hamilton maintained his “buy” rating on the stock and boosted its price target to $202 a share — the highest on Wall Street — from $185 previously. That values the iPhone maker at more than $1tn based on its outstanding share count of 5.2bn shares on May 8.
Apple’s shares were up as much as 2.9 per cent to an all-time high of $153.25 on Monday.
Sentiment on Apple soured earlier this month after chief executive Tim Cook blamed leaks about the next iPhone model for a 1 per cent drop in sales of its most popular product last quarter. But Mr White argues that following the first-ever drop in iPhone sales in 2016, the market became “overly negative” on Apple, which currently has just 14.6 per cent of the global smartphone market share, according to IDC data. That leaves it plenty of room for growth.
Moreover, he notes that Apple has “proven its resilience through its unique ability to develop hardware, software and services that work seamlessly together. We believe this positions Apple very well to capitalise on the trend toward more ‘things’ becoming a computer.”
Looking ahead, he notes that Apple’s quarterly results will be less important as investors focus on the iPhone 8 this fall, capital distribution plans, “depressed valuation” and possible innovations.
Two weeks ago Bank of America caused a stir when it calculated that central banks (mostly the ECB & BoJ) have bought $1 trillion of financial assets just in the first four months of 2017, which amounts to $3.6 trillion annualized, “the largest CB buying on record.”
Probability in day trading is an extremely flexible and equally subjective authority. It is one such aspect that provides for a comprehensive room in terms of making decisions and analysing the potential effects of the decision as well. It can be envisioned as a semi-mechanical process which is based on an automated system comprising of various probabilities that depict two possible results at the end of it all.
Application of the laws of probability to determine market curve
The laws of probability are majorly applied to the stock market arena in speculating the growth curve. One of the most common examples is the influence of present growth on a stock. For instance the laws of probability in stock market confers to the fact that a stock is expected to underperform following an adverse growth session since major players tend to reap in the benefits without further risk involvement.
The substantial loss is incurred since major proportions of the people seemingly think alike and want to either cash out with the profits they have made or simply by virtue of the fear of losing money. Either way the scenario is completely structured owing to the presumptuous thinking of the common people and the misguiding statistical analysis with probability at its core.
It is therefore easily understandable that probability plays a comprehensive role at the crux of shaping the stock market manoeuvres. Probability in day trading is completely speculative yet self-induced as well. In an easier and subtle language it can be envisioned as a pseudo element that helps to shape the movements. It is significantly a common entity that is extensively present at the back of the mind in each trader.
Find your edge and put it to work by adhering to the following rules:
With every stock you own, keep track of its story in a logbook. Note any new developments and pay close attention to earnings. Is this a growth play, a cyclical play, or a value play? Stocks do well for a reason and do poorly for a reason. Make sure you know the reasons.
Pay attention to facts, not forecasts.
Ask yourself: What will I make if I’m right, and what could I lose if I’m wrong? Look for a risk-reward ratio of three to one or better.
Before you invest, check the balance sheet to see if the company is financially sound.
Don’t buy options, and don’t invest on margin. With options, time works against you, and if you’re on margin, a drop in the market can wipe you out.
When several insiders are buying the company’s stock at the same time, it’s a positive.
Average investors should be able to monitor five to ten companies at a time, but nobody is forcing you to own any of them. If you like seven, buy seven. If you like three, buy three. If you like zero, buy zero.
Be patient. The stocks that have been most rewarding to me have made their greatest gains in the third or fourth year I owned them. A few took ten years.
Enter early — but not too early. I often think of investing in growth companies in terms of baseball. Try to join the game in the third inning, because a company has proved itself by then. If you buy before the lineup is announced, you’re taking an unnecessary risk. There’s plenty of time (10 to 15 years in some cases) between the third and the seventh innings, which is where the 10- to 50-baggers are made. If you buy in the late innings, you may be too late.
Don’t buy “cheap” stocks just because they’re cheap. Buy them because the fundamentals are improving.
Buy small companies after they’ve had a chance to prove they can make a profit.
Long shots usually backfire or become “no shots.”
If you buy a stock for the dividend, make sure the company can comfortably afford to pay the dividend out of its earnings, even in an economic slump.
Investigate ten companies and you’re likely to find one with bright prospects that aren’t reflected in the price. Investigate 50 and you’re likely to find 5.
Investments in domestic capital markets via participatory notes (P-notes) have surprisingly surged to 4-month high of Rs 1.78 lakh crore at the end of March despite stringent norms put in place by Sebi to curb inflow of illicit funds. P-notes are issued by registered Foreign Portfolio Investors to overseas investors who wish to be a part of the Indian stock markets without registering themselves directly. They however need to go through a proper due diligence process.
According to Sebi data, total value of P-note investments in Indian markets – equity, debt and derivatives -increased to 1,78,437 crore at March-end, from Rs 1,70,191 crore at the end of February. Prior to that, the total investment value through P-notes stood at Rs 1.75 lakh crore in January-end and Rs 1.57 lakh crore in December-end. In March, investments through the route had touched the highest level since November, when the cumulative value of such investments stood at Rs 1,79,648 crore.