Anirudh Sethi Report

http://www.business-standard.com/india/news/ril-loses-bid-for-canadian-firm/388837/

Above is the hrly chart of Reliance (Yesterday’s trading ).From 1030 to 1072…What a rally ?

On 3rd March ,LyondellBasell NEWS was out and stock zooomed from 992 to 1027 level in single session.

-Just think it over :Why this is happening with all companies listed in INDIA ?

-If u hunting to buy some company….is it Bad NEWS for company ?

If u lose …….and if u are not able to get Foreign Company…is it good for Domestic company ?

Technically ,I had written stock looking Hot only.

But who was having this NEWS …that it had has lost out on its $2-billion takeover bid for Calgary-based Value Creation.

-Media is reporting Today morning …so somebody was having this NEWS during trading hrs itself ??

Yes ,Chart indicated 2 days back only…Fiery move on card.

But reasons were known to some Insiders only…..Jai ho !!

Updated at 6:35/17th March/Baroda

I “see” the market through the lens of four primary metrics: fundamentals, technical, structural and psychology.

When viewed in isolation, each of those approaches has inherent flaws.

1. Fundamentals are best at the top and worst near a low.

2. Technical indicators often trigger buy signals higher, on breakouts, and sell signals lower, after a stock has broken down.

3. Structural factors — debt, derivatives and currency effects — can self-sustain in a cumulative manner until such time they overwhelm the system.

4. Psychology, such social mood and risk appetites, can gain momentum until they snap under the weight of the herd mentality.

• In 1973 Larry Williams published a book titled “How I Made One Million Dollars Last Year Trading Commodities” detailing his trading success that year. The next year he lost the million dollars.

• Michael Marcus started with $30,000, borrowed another $20,000 from his mother and then proceeded to lose 84% of their combined capital (imagine trying explain that to your Mom) before becoming a successful trader.

• In 1987 several commodity funds managed by Richard Dennis lost 50% of their capital and were forced to stop trading.

It is the most competitive field out there, not only we have to fight each other (yes – this is what we do), but we have to oppose enormous computing power of heartless machines turning trades in nanoseconds. 

Here is a simple test if you cut to be a trader – if you can stay emotions free when you finish it – try stock betting…just don’t bet your house on it – that was a job of banksters. (Just remember – 99% of you will be better of sticking with just a test and not moving to real trading)

 Step 1. Go to your bank on a windy day.
Step 2. Withdraw a minimum of  Rs10,0000 in cash.
Step 3. Walk outside and with both hands starting throwing your money up into the air.
Step 4. After all of the money has blown away, go home and sit down in your favorite chair and calmly say, “Gosh that was foolish. I wish I hadn’t done that.”
Step 5. Get on with your life.

1. Come to the market with a trading plan. Most traders don’t have a plan built around high odds trade set ups. Thus, they trade random patterns.

2. Put in the necessary work. You can’t be like most traders and just show up to the markets expecting to make big money in a short period of time. Don’t be like most traders; become contrarian. It takes hard work and study. Prepare yourself to trade well.

3. Enter on reactions, not on breakouts. Most traders see the market begin to move and then jump in. These dog-piling events are made-to-order for professional traders to act. They unload when the herd is buying, and stock up when it is selling. Adopt a professional’s attitude and look to sell into strength and buy into weakness.

4. Work on the mental side of trading, not just the technical side. Understanding how to read the chart is vital, of course. But it is not enough. Once the technical side is learned, trading becomes 100% psychological. Most traders think psychology is unimportant until it is too late. Be contrarian and put time in to learning the mental skills needed to trade well.

5. Keep learning. Not just about the markets but about your own performance, too. Most traders take a losing trade and sweep it under the rug. They try to forget about it. Likewise, they don’t bother to study their winning trades. They have little idea of why one trade worked and another didn’t. Be contrarian: review your trading and keep a journal.

Becoming contrari Read more…

1. What’s your game plan if it goes against you and threatens your survival?

2. Will you be able to get out? Did you take that into account in your workout?

3. More typically, what will you do if it goes way against you and then meanders back to give you a breakeven? Or if it immediately goes for you or aginst you?

4. Would you be willing to take a ½% profit if you get it in the first 10 minutes?

5. Did you test whether taking small opportunistic profits turns a winning system into a bad one?

6. How will unexpected cardinal events affect you like the “regrettably,” or the pre-annnouncement of something you expected for the next open? And what happens if you’re trading an individual stock and the market goes up or down a few percent during the day, or what’s the impact of a related move in oil or interest rates?

7. Are you sure that you have to monitor the trade during the day? If you’re using stops, then you probably don’t have to but then your position size would have to be reduced so much that your chances of a reasonable profit taking account of vig are close to zero. If you’re using 10% of your capital on a trade, they you’ll have to monitor it for survival. But, but, but. Are you sure you won’t be called away by phone calls, or the others? Read more…

I’ve been reading a wondeful book by Jerry Stocking titled Laighing with God.In that book the following dilemma is broght up ,and I’m going to rewrite the conversation a little to make it pertinent to trading/investing.

God o you want to win without losing ?

Trader :Of course.

God :If you win ,you must lose as well.But you weren’t honest with me.Your saud that you’d like to just win.If that were the case ,you’d win much  more often.

The possibility of failure motivates you much more than the possibility of success.your whole society thrices on failure  or at least the fear of lossing.If there were not the possibility of losing you could not take any credit for success.Making money in the markets would seen meaningless for you. Read more…

Diedrich Coffee (DDRX) which started the year at a measly $.36 per share. Today it closed at $34.73, leaving the stock with a staggering 9,547.22% return for the year. That means if you would have invested even $10,000 in the stock on January first it would be worth $954,722.00 today. Not bad huh?

Stocks rise when they are being bought up. Stocks fall when they are being sold off. I always ask myself “Who is in control. The buyers or sellers.” Control changes often and in different time frames you can argue that one party or the other were merely taking a rest.
I generally buy stocks that are going up and short sell stocks that are falling. But I also play the sharp reversals that happen if there is a huge gain or drop as I know gravity will take effect and profit taking will occur. The smart way to day trade is to be on the winning side be it buyers or sellers.
As a small fish in a big ocean I can only ride on the coattails of the big boys who actually move the market. My job as a trader is to recognize when trend or momentum is starting to kick in and climb aboard. Short term trends or momentum are the only thing that I trade. The old cliche’ “the trend is your friend” is so very true.
I only trade in the direction the chart is telling me to. Maybe you can watch the talking heads on TV blathering on or read about how great some stock is without forming an opinion on it. I can’t, so it’s safer to insulate myself from any and all information. I actually don’t care what, where, why, how or when a company does what it does. Who am I to be able to process all this information? I do know that when a stock is rising, more people are buying it than selling it and vice versa. Seems easier to me to only look at and believe the chart and trade accordingly. If I have preconceived notions about what the stock may do, I will not be able to cut my losses when the chart tells me to. I will hold on to the dream all the way to the poor house. Always trade with the trend.
Cutting your losers is one of the most important aspects of trading.Unless you have an unlimited pile of money to fritter away you must admit you’re wrong and exit the trade. If you don’t you will not have enough to remain in the game. End of story.
Letting the winners run is also important. They are winners after all and that is all that counts. Adding size (buying more shares) can turn little winners into big winners.
If you disregard any or all of these 3 simple rules you won’t be around trading very long.